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Manulife Financial Corporation (0945) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Manulife Financial Corporation HK$214, price HK$334, upside -35.8%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Manulife Financial Corporation
0945 · HKStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value HK$214.47 · Strongly overvalued (−35.8%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.5% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 56/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$101.15 – HK$351.40 · fair‑value band HK$160.85 – HK$268.08 · the HK$334.20 price screens above the HK$214.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Manulife Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in the United States, Canada, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Wealth and Asset Management Businesses; Insurance and Annuity Products; and Corporate and Other segments.
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Manulife Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in the United States, Canada, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Wealth and Asset Management Businesses; Insurance and Annuity Products; and Corporate and Other segments. The Wealth and Asset Management Businesses segment offers investment advice and solutions to retirement, retail, and institutional clients through multiple distribution channels, including agents and brokers affiliated with the company, independent securities brokerage firms and financial advisors pension plan consultants, and banks. The Insurance and Annuity Products segment provides deposit and credit products; and individual life insurance, individual and group long-term care insurance, and guaranteed and partially guaranteed annuity products through multiple distribution channels, including insurance agents, brokers, banks, financial planners, and direct marketing. The Corporate and Other segment is involved in the property and casualty reinsurance businesses; and run-off reinsurance operations, including variable annuities, and accident and health. The company also manages timberland and agricultural portfolios; and engages in the insurance agency, broker dealer, investment counseling, portfolio and mutual fund management, property and casualty insurance, and fund and investment management businesses. In addition, it provides integrated banking products and services, as well as offers asset management services. The company was incorporated in 1887 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Manulife Financial Corporation (0945) currently trades at HK$334.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$214.47, 35.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$235.93 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the HK$334.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$112.91, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$160.85 (bear) to HK$268.08 (bull), the price of HK$334.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Manulife Financial Corporation reported revenue of C$53.0B in FY2025 versus C$59.8B in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$5.8B in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$571B (≈ $72.7B) · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 1.90 · EPS (TTM) HK$19.53 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 10.9% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −36%, 0945 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$160.85
Fair Value HK$214.47
Bull HK$268.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$13.41 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
HK$153.92
HK$177.81
HK$243.06
74
P/E Multiple
HK$186.44
HK$248.59
HK$310.74
63
P/B Multiple
HK$176.95
HK$235.93
HK$294.92
55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple
HK$186.44
HK$248.59
HK$310.74
63
P/B Multiple
HK$176.95
HK$235.93
HK$294.92
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
HK$84.26
HK$112.91
HK$168.52
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
HK$153.92
HK$177.81
HK$243.06
74
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
63/100
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Profitability
25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.3% vs 8.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−28.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −30.2% a year for the price.
0945 screens overvalued: fair value 36% below the price. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (84 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Manulife Canada partners with Sword to launch AI-enabled physiotherapy solution to support faster recovery and return-to-work outcomes
- Manulife Becomes the First in Canada to Offer Travel Insurance Quotes in ChatGPT
- Manulife Investments Announces September 2026 Cash Distributions for Manulife Exchange Traded Funds and ETF Series of Manulife Funds
- Manulife Financial (TSX:MFC) On Its Leadership Refresh And Why Valuation Is Back In Focus
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Life Insurance Company 601628 | ¥37.43 | ¥49.98 | +34% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥53.29 | ¥67.19 | +26% |
| AIA Group 1299 | HK$73.75 | HK$41.69 | −43% |
| MetLife, Inc MET | $94.35 | $54.39 | −42% |
| Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO | C$93.34 | C$42.07 | −55% |
| Aflac Incorporated AFL | $111.18 | $67.02 | −40% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹409.05 | ₹299.19 | −27% |
| Cathay Financial Holding 2882 | 110.50 TWD | 71.47 TWD | −35% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥30.88 | ¥48.28 | +56% |
| Power Corporation POW | C$94.28 | C$32.85 | −65% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Manulife Financial Corporation (0945) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$214.47 versus a price of HK$334.20, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0945?
Our model-based fair value for Manulife Financial Corporation is HK$214.47 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$334.20.
What is the quality score of 0945?
Manulife Financial Corporation has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$214.47 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$160.85, optimistic scenario HK$268.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Manulife Financial Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$214.47, about −36% upside versus a price of HK$334.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$160.85, optimistic scenario HK$268.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
Manulife Financial Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$32.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Manulife Financial Corporation pay a dividend?
Manulife Financial Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Manulife Financial Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -28.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.2 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0945 use?
Our models discount Manulife Financial Corporation at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Manulife Financial Corporation that is -28.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Manulife Financial Corporation (0945) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Manulife Financial Corporation grew -7.2 % a year. The price currently implies -28.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Manulife Financial Corporation (-28.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.97 %: that much free cash flow Manulife Financial Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Manulife Financial Corporation it is HK$214.47 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$334.20. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Manulife Financial Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 0945 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$334.20, fair value HK$214.47, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0945?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$334.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$214.47). For Manulife Financial Corporation the two are HK$119.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Manulife Financial Corporation worth?
The market values Manulife Financial Corporation at about HK$571B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$334.20; our models calculate a fair value of HK$214.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0945?
Our models span a range for Manulife Financial Corporation: cautious scenario HK$160.85, base HK$214.47, optimistic HK$268.08 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$334.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0945 from its 52-week high?
Manulife Financial Corporation trades at HK$334.20, about 5% below its 52-week high of HK$351.40 and 42% above the low of HK$235.93 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$214.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Manulife Financial Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, MetLife, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Manulife Financial Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$334.20, calculated fair value HK$214.47 (−36%), Quality Score 63/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0945 calculated?
We run Manulife Financial Corporation through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$214.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Manulife Financial Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$334.20. Our model-based fair value is HK$214.47, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Manulife Financial Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$268.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945) come from?
Earnings per share at Manulife Financial Corporation grew +8.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.3 %, EBIT margin +7.8 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Manulife Financial Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
The market capitalisation of Manulife Financial Corporation is HK$571B (≈ $72.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Manulife Financial Corporation is 17.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Manulife Financial Corporation is 1.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
Earnings per share at Manulife Financial Corporation are HK$19.53 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
The dividend yield of Manulife Financial Corporation is 0.5% (payout 9.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
The net margin of Manulife Financial Corporation is 10.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Manulife Financial Corporation is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Manulife Financial Corporation is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
The operating margin of Manulife Financial Corporation is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
Revenue at Manulife Financial Corporation is growing +12.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
Earnings per share at Manulife Financial Corporation are growing +162% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Manulife Financial Corporation (0945) hold?
Manulife Financial Corporation holds more cash than debt, C$12.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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