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Data-driven stock valuation

Manulife Financial Corporation (0945) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Manulife Financial Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$529B (≈ $67.4B) · ISIN CA56501R1064

At a glance

MF Manulife Financial Corporation 0945 · HK
PriceHK$345.20
Fair ValueHK$143.30
Upside−58.5%
Quality63/100

A solid business, but trading 141% above our fair value of HK$143.30.

As of Sep 3, 2026, the fair value of Manulife Financial Corporation is HK$143.30 per share against a price of HK$345.20, so the fair value sits 58% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.0% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.52% dividend yield
!Moderate moat 56/100
Evidence: High Range HK$107.47 to HK$179.12

Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026

From 4 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from HK$143.17 to HK$143.30 (+0.1%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −1.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$179.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$351.40 HK$101.15 Fair Value HK$143.30 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$101.15 – HK$351.40 · fair‑value band HK$107.47 – HK$179.12 · the HK$345.20 price screens above the HK$143.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

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Analysis

Manulife Financial Corporation (0945) currently trades at HK$345.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$143.30, implying the stock looks roughly 140.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$42.83 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the HK$345.20 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$20.50, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Manulife Financial Corporation generated revenue of HK$32.0B at a net margin of 20.0%. Revenue grew 12.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$12.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026

Scenario range: HK$107.47 (bear) to HK$179.12 (bull), the price of HK$345.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −58%, 0945 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$12.24 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence HK$28.30 HK$33.39 HK$68.55 69
P/E Multiple HK$33.84 HK$45.13 HK$56.41 63
P/B Multiple HK$32.12 HK$42.83 HK$53.54 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$33.84 HK$45.13 HK$56.41 63
P/B Multiple HK$32.12 HK$42.83 HK$53.54 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$15.30 HK$20.50 HK$30.59 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence HK$28.30 HK$33.39 HK$68.55 69

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$42.83) versus Asset-Based (HK$20.50). Highest evidence: Residual Income (69).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 18.0
P/S ratio 1.96 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$19.53 price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.0
Dividend yield 0.5% payout 9.2%
Net margin 10.9% FY2025
Return on equity 12.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 19.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$32.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +12.1% 3y avg +30.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +162%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$32.1B FY2025
Net cash HK$12.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Manulife Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in the United States, Canada, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Wealth and Asset Management Businesses; Insurance and Annuity Products; and Corporate and Other segments.

Full company description

Manulife Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in the United States, Canada, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Wealth and Asset Management Businesses; Insurance and Annuity Products; and Corporate and Other segments. The Wealth and Asset Management Businesses segment offers investment advice and solutions to retirement, retail, and institutional clients through multiple distribution channels, including agents and brokers affiliated with the company, independent securities brokerage firms and financial advisors pension plan consultants, and banks. The Insurance and Annuity Products segment provides deposit and credit products; and individual life insurance, individual and group long-term care insurance, and guaranteed and partially guaranteed annuity products through multiple distribution channels, including insurance agents, brokers, banks, financial planners, and direct marketing. The Corporate and Other segment is involved in the property and casualty reinsurance businesses; and run-off reinsurance operations, including variable annuities, and accident and health. The company also manages timberland and agricultural portfolios; and engages in the insurance agency, broker dealer, investment counseling, portfolio and mutual fund management, property and casualty insurance, and fund and investment management businesses. In addition, it provides integrated banking products and services, as well as offers asset management services. The company was incorporated in 1887 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Manulife Financial Corporation reported revenue of C$53.0B in FY2025 versus C$59.8B in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$5.8B in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$53.0B
Latest YoY
+16.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+30.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+4.3%
Dividend yield0.5%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 4.3% vs 10Y 8.4%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8.8% (2020) → 13.4% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop210% (2010) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in HKD
Revenue −3.0%/yr
FY21 C$59.8B
FY22 C$23.6B
FY23 C$42.3B
FY24 C$45.6B
FY25 C$53.0B
Net income −3.5%/yr
FY21 C$6.7B
FY22 −C$2.1B
FY23 C$5.5B
FY24 C$5.6B
FY25 C$5.8B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +8.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.3 %

of which total revenue +0.3 % · buybacks/dilution +1.0 %

EBIT margin +7.8 %
Tax rate −0.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

0945 screens 141% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →

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Manulife Financial Corporation · Fair Value
HK$143.30 −141%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Manulife Financial Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0945

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Manulife Financial Corporation deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+3.6 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years-7.2 % p.a.
FCF yield on price5.45 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.5 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Life Insurance Company 601628 ¥37.03 ¥49.98 +35%
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 ¥55.82 ¥84.72 +52%
AIA Group 1299 HK$73.00 HK$33.57 −54%
Aflac Incorporated AFL $117.21 $74.34 −37%
Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO C$90.25 C$39.53 −56%
MetLife, Inc MET $97.62 $68.27 −30%
Life Insurance Corporation LICI ₹412.15 ₹392.93 −5%
Cathay Financial Holding 2882 115.00 TWD 90.27 TWD −22%
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 ¥30.20 ¥57.51 +90%
Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 301,000 KRW 191,293 KRW −36%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Manulife Financial Corporation (0945) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$143.30 versus a price of HK$345.20, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0945?
Our model-based fair value for Manulife Financial Corporation is HK$143.30 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$345.20.
What is the quality score of 0945?
Manulife Financial Corporation has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$143.30 (as of Sep 3, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$107.47, optimistic scenario HK$179.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Manulife Financial Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$143.30, about −58% upside versus a price of HK$345.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$107.47, optimistic scenario HK$179.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
Manulife Financial Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$32.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0945?
The net profit margin of Manulife Financial Corporation is about 20.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 20.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Manulife Financial Corporation pay a dividend?
Manulife Financial Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Manulife Financial Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +3.6 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.2 % per year. As of Sep 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0945 use?
Our models discount Manulife Financial Corporation at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.78. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Manulife Financial Corporation (0945)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Manulife Financial Corporation it is HK$143.30 per share (as of Sep 3, 2026), against a price of HK$345.20. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Manulife Financial Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 3, 2026, 0945 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$345.20, fair value HK$143.30, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0945?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$345.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$143.30). For Manulife Financial Corporation the two are HK$201.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Manulife Financial Corporation worth?
The market values Manulife Financial Corporation at about HK$529B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 3, 2026). Per share that is HK$345.20; our models calculate a fair value of HK$143.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0945?
Our models span a range for Manulife Financial Corporation: cautious scenario HK$107.47, base HK$143.30, optimistic HK$179.12 per share (as of Sep 3, 2026, price HK$345.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0945 from its 52-week high?
Manulife Financial Corporation trades at HK$345.20, about 7% below its 52-week high of HK$322.00 and 52% above the low of HK$227.13 (as of Sep 3, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$143.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Manulife Financial Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Aflac Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Manulife Financial Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 3, 2026: price HK$345.20, calculated fair value HK$143.30 (−58%), Quality Score 63/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0945 calculated?
We run Manulife Financial Corporation through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$143.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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