Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $62.1B
Aflac Incorporated
AFL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +4.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($116.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $46.09 – $129.55 · fair‑value band $69.84 – $116.40 · the $126.66 price screens above the $93.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) currently trades at $126.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $93.12, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aflac Incorporated generated revenue of $18.1B at a net margin of 25.6%. Revenue grew 27.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.5%. Net debt stands at $2.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $69.84 (bear case) to $116.40 (bull case); at $126.66, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at -26%, AFL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($115.28) versus Dividend Discount ($30.20). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment, and Tsumitasu insurance products in Japan. Its Aflac U.S.
Full company description
Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment, and Tsumitasu insurance products in Japan. Its Aflac U.S. segment provides accident, disability, cancer, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life insurance products in the United States. The company also provides hearing, final expense, pet, Medicare supplement, supplemental dental and vision, short-term disability, and absence management insurance products, as well as cafeteria plans. It sells its products to individuals, families, and business owners through individual, independent corporate, and affiliated corporate agencies; banks; independent associates/career agents; and brokers. Aflac Incorporated was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Columbus, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aflac Incorporated reported revenue of $17.4B in FY2025 versus $22.1B in FY2021, a compound −5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $3.6B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.
AFL screens 26% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Can Better Japan Profitability Support Aflac's Q2 Earnings Beat?
- Insights Into Aflac (AFL) Q2: Wall Street Projections for Key Metrics
- Humana (HUM) Adds Anthropic And Aflac Veterans To Its Board
- Aflac (AFL) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?
Peer Group
Insurance - Life · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Life Insurance Company 601628 | ¥38.72 | ¥70.87 | +83% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥49.60 | ¥96.76 | +95% |
| AIA Group 1299 | HK$75.55 | HK$7.88 | -90% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation MFC | C$58.52 | C$45.13 | -23% |
| Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO | C$92.34 | C$59.64 | -35% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹438.30 | ₹590.43 | +35% |
| Fubon Financial Holding 2881 | 124.50 TWD | 115.05 TWD | -8% |
| Cathay Financial Holding 2882 | 94.00 TWD | 94.95 TWD | +1% |
| Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 | 337,500 KRW | 166,710 KRW | -51% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥29.75 | ¥59.50 | +100% |
Compare Aflac Incorporated with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Financial Services stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Aflac Incorporated (AFL) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of AFL?
What is the quality score of AFL?
What is the revenue of Aflac Incorporated (AFL)?
What is the net profit margin of AFL?
Does Aflac Incorporated pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Aflac Incorporated and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.