Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation
Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free
Discover now →
Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Heidelberg Materials AG €109, price €148, upside -25.9%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
- Add to watchlist
HM
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Heidelberg Materials AG
1HEI · MIOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value €109.43 · Overvalued (−25.9%)
✓Quality 66/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y +0.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.4% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 50/100
Watch Heidelberg Materials AG for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.
Watch for free
Pro now: $1 first month
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €35.40 – €234.89 · fair‑value band €83.14 – €149.58 · the €147.65 price screens above the €109.43 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Heidelberg Materials AG, together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes cement, aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, and asphalt worldwide.
Show more
Heidelberg Materials AG, together with its subsidiaries, produces and distributes cement, aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, and asphalt worldwide. The company provides cement products; natural stone aggregates, including sand and gravel; crushed aggregates comprising stone chippings and crushed stones; and ready-mixed concrete for use in the construction of tunnels or bridges, office buildings, or schools, as well as to produce precast concrete parts, such as stairs, ceiling elements, or structural components. It also offers asphalt; and trades in cement, clinker, secondary cementitious materials, solid, alternative fuels, other building materials, and additives. The company was formerly known as HeidelbergCement AG and changed its name to Heidelberg Materials AG in May 2023. Heidelberg Materials AG was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Heidelberg, Germany.
Stock analysis
Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI) currently trades at €147.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €109.43, 25.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €146.02 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the €147.65 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €37.07, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €83.14 (bear) to €149.58 (bull), the price of €147.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Heidelberg Materials AG reported revenue of €21.5B in FY2025 versus €18.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was €1.9B in FY2025, compounding +2.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €30.9B · P/E ratio 13.2 · P/S ratio 1.20 · EPS (TTM) €11.17 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 9.0% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −26%, 1HEI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €83.14
Fair Value €109.43
Bull €149.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€5.72 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€99.59
€140.58
€223.39
76
Growth DCF
€104.36
€144.56
€218.80
75
Residual Income
€93.04
€103.91
€127.11
73
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€99.59
€140.58
€223.39
76
Owner Earnings
€104.34
€146.98
€233.14
72
5Y Revenue Exit
€85.15
€128.61
€194.21
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
€87.40
€132.42
€194.39
72
5Y P/E Exit
€88.40
€134.11
€190.95
68
10Y Revenue Exit
€86.97
€125.45
€168.71
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
€91.12
€127.95
€168.82
66
10Y P/E Exit
€91.73
€129.06
€166.61
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€74.83
€120.95
€146.02
64
EPV
€112.46
€134.21
€153.24
71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€30.65
€37.07
€44.02
67
DDM Multi-Stage
€30.65
€40.78
€53.44
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€115.55
€154.07
€192.59
63
P/S Multiple
€109.51
€146.02
€182.52
58
P/B Multiple
€139.04
€185.39
€231.74
55
EV/EBIT
€112.05
€155.41
€198.77
66
EV/EBITDA
€95.67
€133.57
€171.47
67
EV/Revenue
€84.19
€128.00
€171.80
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€51.50
€69.01
€102.99
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€104.36
€144.56
€218.80
75
Rev-Margin DCF
€85.15
€131.28
€190.09
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€93.04
€103.91
€127.11
73
ROIC Compounder
€112.99
€138.03
€166.15
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€83.14
€118.77
€154.40
65
Notify me when 1HEI reaches fair value
Put 1HEI on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
66/100
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Profitability
48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 14%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.2% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.5%
1HEI screens overvalued: fair value 26% below the price. Compare with CRH plc →
Compare Heidelberg Materials AG with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 249 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Valuation of the Italy market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRH plc CRH | $85.04 | $74.79 | −12% |
| Holcim AG HOLN | CHF 64.66 | CHF 33.08 | −49% |
| Martin Marietta Materials, Inc MLM | $484.30 | $207.85 | −57% |
| UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO | ₹11,155 | ₹4,719 | −58% |
| Vulcan Materials Company VMC | $245.00 | $131.66 | −46% |
| China Jushi Co 600176 | ¥43.06 | ¥28.26 | −34% |
| Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM | ₹3,191 | ₹1,245 | −61% |
| Amrize AG AMRZ | $38.22 | $35.08 | −8% |
| James Hardie Industries plc JHX | A$36.98 | A$8.06 | −78% |
| Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 | ¥17.51 | ¥28.02 | +60% |
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
All undervalued stocks
TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
🥇 Backtested Best
🏆 Big Names
⭐ Top Rated
💎 Quality on Sale
🚀 Profitable Growth
🧊 Quality Compounders
💵 Dividend Stars
📈 Strong Momentum
📉 Fallen Angels
⚖️ Deeply Undervalued
🔍 Small-Cap Gems
🏰 Moat at a Fair Price
💼 Insider Buying
🎩 Buffett-Style Quality
📚 Peter Lynch GARP
🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula
🛡️ Graham Defensive
Discover tools
Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector
Compare toolTwo stocks side by side
Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark
Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
Frequently asked questions
Is Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €109.43 versus a price of €147.65, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1HEI?
Our model-based fair value for Heidelberg Materials AG is €109.43 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €147.65.
What is the quality score of 1HEI?
Heidelberg Materials AG has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €109.43 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €83.14, optimistic scenario €149.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heidelberg Materials AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €109.43, about −26% upside versus a price of €147.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €83.14, optimistic scenario €149.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
Heidelberg Materials AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €21.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Heidelberg Materials AG pay a dividend?
Heidelberg Materials AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.44% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Heidelberg Materials AG would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +3.5 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1HEI use?
Our models discount Heidelberg Materials AG at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Heidelberg Materials AG that is +9.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Heidelberg Materials AG grew +3.5 % a year. The price currently implies +9.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Heidelberg Materials AG (+9.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.07 %: that much free cash flow Heidelberg Materials AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heidelberg Materials AG it is €109.43 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of €147.65. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heidelberg Materials AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 1HEI trades above its calculated fair value: price €147.65, fair value €109.43, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1HEI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€147.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€109.43). For Heidelberg Materials AG the two are €38.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heidelberg Materials AG worth?
The market values Heidelberg Materials AG at about €30.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is €147.65; our models calculate a fair value of €109.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1HEI?
Our models span a range for Heidelberg Materials AG: cautious scenario €83.14, base €109.43, optimistic €149.58 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price €147.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1HEI?
Heidelberg Materials AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €109.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 1HEI?
The PEG ratio of Heidelberg Materials AG is 1.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heidelberg Materials AG (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1HEI from its 52-week high?
Heidelberg Materials AG trades at €147.65, about 37% below its 52-week high of €234.89 and 4% above the low of €142.15 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €109.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heidelberg Materials AG?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heidelberg Materials AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price €147.65, calculated fair value €109.43 (−26%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1HEI calculated?
We run Heidelberg Materials AG through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €109.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Heidelberg Materials AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €147.65. Our model-based fair value is €109.43, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heidelberg Materials AG right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Heidelberg Materials AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
The market capitalisation of Heidelberg Materials AG is €30.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heidelberg Materials AG is 1.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberg Materials AG are €11.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
The dividend yield of Heidelberg Materials AG is 2.4% (payout 32.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
The net margin of Heidelberg Materials AG is 9.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heidelberg Materials AG is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heidelberg Materials AG is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
The operating margin of Heidelberg Materials AG is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
Revenue at Heidelberg Materials AG is growing −0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberg Materials AG are growing +5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Heidelberg Materials AG (1HEI) carry?
The net debt of Heidelberg Materials AG is €4.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Heidelberg Materials AG in the live analysis
One click puts Heidelberg Materials AG on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.