Holcim AG (HOLN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Holcim AG is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 17.47 – CHF 80.17 · fair‑value band CHF 51.32 – CHF 75.42 · the CHF 67.26 price screens above the CHF 66.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa.
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Holcim AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials and solutions in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East, and Africa. It provides foundation, flooring, walling and roofing products, including cement, clinker, and other cementitious materials; ready-mix concrete; aggregates, such as crushed stone, gravel, and sand; and precast, concrete products, asphalts, mortars, roofing systems, insulation systems, tile adhesives, facade solutions, and contracting and services. The company also provides digital services through HOLCIM+ platform and digital concrete services. Its products are used in infrastructure projects, such as tunnels, railways and train stations, airports and ports, and bridges; housing projects, including individual and collective housing; commercial projects comprising offices, retail, and public buildings; and industrial projects consisting of renewable energy, oil and gas, and mining. The company sells its products under the ECOPact, ECOPlanet, Aggneo, Hydromedia, ZinCo Holcim, Elevate, Airium, PRB Group, Cantillana, Flachdach Technologie, Izolbet, Disensa, Tector, DYNAMax, Agilia, Ductal, Artevia, Humes, Tensolite, Compaktuna, and other service brands. The company was formerly known as LafargeHolcim Ltd and changed its name to Holcim AG in May 2021. Holcim AG was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Holcim AG (HOLN) currently trades at CHF 67.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 66.10, implying the stock looks roughly 1.8% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of CHF 38.81 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the CHF 67.26 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at CHF 9.08, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 51.32 (bear) to CHF 75.42 (bull), the price of CHF 67.26 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Holcim AG reported revenue of CHF 15.7B in FY2025 versus CHF 26.8B in FY2021, a compound −12.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 387M in FY2025, compounding −35.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 41.0B · P/E ratio 96.1 · P/S ratio 2.36 · EPS (TTM) CHF 0.7000 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −2%, HOLN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 51.32Fair Value CHF 66.10Bull CHF 75.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−40.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.4%
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−28.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−28% vs −14%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 16%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 254 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−46% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)84% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Holcim AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOLN
Frequently asked questions
Is Holcim AG (HOLN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 66.10 versus a price of CHF 67.26, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HOLN?
Our model-based fair value for Holcim AG is CHF 66.10 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 67.26.
What is the quality score of HOLN?
Holcim AG has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 66.10 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 51.32, optimistic scenario CHF 75.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Holcim AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 66.10, about −2% upside versus a price of CHF 67.26 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario CHF 51.32, optimistic scenario CHF 75.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Holcim AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 15.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Holcim AG pay a dividend?
Holcim AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Holcim AG (HOLN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Holcim AG would have to grow free cash flow by +8.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.4 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HOLN use?
Our models discount Holcim AG at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Holcim AG that is +8.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Holcim AG (HOLN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Holcim AG grew -7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +8.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Holcim AG (HOLN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Holcim AG (+8.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.64 %: that much free cash flow Holcim AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Holcim AG it is CHF 66.10 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of CHF 67.26. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Holcim AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, HOLN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 67.26, fair value CHF 66.10, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOLN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 67.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 66.10). For Holcim AG the two are CHF 1.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Holcim AG worth?
The market values Holcim AG at about CHF 41.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is CHF 67.26; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 66.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOLN?
Our models span a range for Holcim AG: cautious scenario CHF 51.32, base CHF 66.10, optimistic CHF 75.42 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price CHF 67.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HOLN?
Holcim AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 96.1 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 66.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4.
What is the PEG ratio of HOLN?
The PEG ratio of Holcim AG is 0.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Holcim AG (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 2.1%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOLN from its 52-week high?
Holcim AG trades at CHF 67.26, about 17% below its 52-week high of CHF 80.60 and 50% above the low of CHF 44.78 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 66.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Holcim AG?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Vulcan Materials Company, UltraTech Cement Limited, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Holcim AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price CHF 67.26, calculated fair value CHF 66.10 (−2%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOLN calculated?
We run Holcim AG through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 66.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Holcim AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was CHF 67.26. Our model-based fair value is CHF 66.10, about −2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Holcim AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Holcim AG (HOLN) come from?
Earnings per share at Holcim AG grew +1.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.7 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Holcim AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The market capitalisation of Holcim AG is CHF 41.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Holcim AG is 2.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Earnings per share at Holcim AG are CHF 0.7000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 96.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The dividend yield of Holcim AG is 2.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The net margin of Holcim AG is 2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Holcim AG is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Holcim AG is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Holcim AG (HOLN)?
The operating margin of Holcim AG is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Revenue at Holcim AG is growing −3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Holcim AG (HOLN)?
Earnings per share at Holcim AG are growing +10.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Holcim AG (HOLN) carry?
The net debt of Holcim AG is CHF 4.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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