Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $38.3B
Vulcan Materials Company
VMC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $119.01 to $119.51 (+0.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 58% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($177.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($63.54 to $177.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $137.08 – $329.09 · fair‑value band $63.54 – $177.04 · the $281.63 price screens above the $119.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) currently trades at $281.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $119.51, implying the stock looks roughly 57.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vulcan Materials Company generated revenue of $8.1B at a net margin of 13.8%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.5%. Net debt stands at $5.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $63.54 (bear case) to $177.04 (bull case); at $281.63, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -58%, VMC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($148.14) versus Asset-Based ($44.02). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vulcan Materials Company produces and supplies construction aggregates in the United States. It operates through three segments: Aggregates, Asphalt, and Concrete.
Full company description
Vulcan Materials Company produces and supplies construction aggregates in the United States. It operates through three segments: Aggregates, Asphalt, and Concrete. The company provides crushed stone, sand and gravel, sand, and other aggregates for use in construction and maintenance of highways, streets, and other public works, as well as in the construction of housing and commercial, industrial, and other nonresidential facilities; aggregates that are used as ballast for construction and maintenance of railroad tracks; riprap and jetty stones for use in erosion control along roads and waterways; asphalt mix; asphalt construction paving services; and ready-mixed concrete products. The company was formerly known as Virginia Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Vulcan Materials Company. Vulcan Materials Company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vulcan Materials Company reported revenue of $7.9B in FY2025 versus $5.6B in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +12.7%/yr from FY2021.
VMC screens 58% overvalued. Compare with CRH plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Vulcan Materials (VMC) Stock Could Be 21% Overvalued As Cash Flow Leads The Debate
- Vulcan Materials Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Vulcan Materials Co (VMC) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Resilient Performance Amid Energy ...
- Vulcan reiterates $2.4B-$2.6B adjusted EBITDA outlook as it flags nearly $40M energy headwinds
Peer Group
Building Materials · 253 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRH plc CRH | $102.92 | $70.57 | -31% |
| UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO | ₹11,711 | ₹4,719 | -60% |
| China Jushi Co 600176 | ¥54.52 | ¥13.95 | -74% |
| Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM | ₹3,073 | ₹1,245 | -59% |
| CEMEX, S.A. CEMEXCPO | 21.71 MXN | 15.42 MXN | -29% |
| Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 | ¥16.99 | ¥26.14 | +54% |
| Ambuja Cements Limited AMBUJACEM | ₹435.25 | ₹227.96 | -48% |
| Shree Cement Limited SHREECEM | ₹26,930 | ₹8,215 | -69% |
| TCC Group 1101B | 43.70 TWD | 10.48 TWD | -76% |
| Taiwan Glass Ind. Corp 1802 | 53.30 TWD | 13.98 TWD | -74% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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