Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) stock ¥1.46, price ¥13.55, upside -89.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.71 – ¥34.34 · fair‑value band ¥1.13 – ¥1.78 · the ¥13.55 price screens above the ¥1.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
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Shanghai Hugong Electric Group Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells welding and cutting equipment in China and internationally.
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The company offers welding machines, including stick welders, MIG/MAG welders, TIG welders, plasma cutters, submerged arc welders, engine driven welders, and laser welders; laser cutting machines; and plasma cutting machines comprising CNC flame and plasma cutting machines, and CNC pipe intersection cutting machines.
It also provides TIG torch, holders, MIG torch, helmet, gloves, apron, welding wire, welding electrode, tungsten electotre, and cutting torch. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131) currently trades at ¥13.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.46, 89.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥3.01 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥13.55 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.5000, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.13 (bear) to ¥1.78 (bull), the price of ¥13.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) reported revenue of 923M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.4%/yr. Reported net income was −18.2M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.5B CNY (≈ $667M) Small · P/S ratio 4.78 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0600 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin −1.7% · Return on equity −1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% · Operating margin −3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −89%, 603131 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥1.13Fair Value ¥1.46Bull¥1.78
Price ¥13.55 · Upside -89.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.5% (2020) → 2.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.9% a year for the price.
Compare Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 799 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−89.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−1.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−3.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.08× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)4.65× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow64.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG47.65× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)97· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.46 versus a price of ¥13.55, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603131?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) is ¥1.46 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥13.55.
What is the quality score of 603131?
Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.46 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.13, optimistic scenario ¥1.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.46, about −89% upside versus a price of ¥13.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.13, optimistic scenario ¥1.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 957M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
Does Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) pay a dividend?
Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) currently shows a dividend yield of 0.31% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) would have to grow free cash flow by +31.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.2 % per year. As of Oct 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603131 use?
Our models discount Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) that is +31.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) grew -3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +31.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (+31.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.56 %: that much free cash flow Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) it is ¥1.46 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of ¥13.55. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 603131 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥13.55, fair value ¥1.46, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603131?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥13.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.46). For Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) the two are ¥12.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) worth?
The market values Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) at about 4.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is ¥13.55; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603131?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group): cautious scenario ¥1.13, base ¥1.46, optimistic ¥1.78 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price ¥13.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 603131?
The PEG ratio of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) is 47.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 20, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (as of Oct 20, 2026): return on equity −1.0%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603131 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) trades at ¥13.55, about 61% below its 52-week high of ¥34.34 and 7% above the low of ¥12.68 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price ¥13.55, calculated fair value ¥1.46 (−89%), Quality Score 49/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603131 calculated?
We run Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was ¥13.55. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.46, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group)
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) is 4.5B CNY (≈ $667M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) is 4.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) are ¥−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
The net margin of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) is −1.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) is −1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) is −3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
Revenue at Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) is growing +19.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) are growing +33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) (603131) hold?
Shanghai Hugong Elec(Group) holds more cash than debt, 54.5M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 20, 2026