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Alector Inc (ALEC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alector Inc stock $2.28, price $2.53, that is 9.9% below the price, quality 26 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

AI Alector Inc logo Thin data Nov 11, 2026

Alector Inc

ALEC · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 10% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 23.9% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Ranks above peers (8/12)
Revenue last quarter +49% vs. a year ago.
Moderate moat 60/100
Insiders sold $523,367 (6M)
Fair value $2.28 · Overvalued
Quality 26/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.1 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$28.32 $0.9043 Fair Value $2.28 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.9043 – $28.32 · fair‑value band $1.71 – $2.85 · the $2.53 price screens above the $2.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.

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Company profile

Alector, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops therapies to counteract the progression of neurodegeneration in the United States.

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Its pipeline includes Nivisnebart, an investigational human recombinant monoclonal antibody for treating prevalent neurodegenerative diseases; AL137, an anti-amyloid beta antibody paired in preclinical development for the potential treatment of Alzheimer's disease; and AL050, a GCase enzyme replacement therapy in preclinical development for the potential treatment of Parkinson's disease and Lewy body dementia in patients having GBA1 gene mutations.

The company also develops its preclinical and research pipeline comprising AL064, a tau siRNA for Alzheimer's disease and other tauopathies; ADP062-ABC, an alpha-synuclein siRNA for Parkinson's disease; and ADP065-ABC, an NLRP3 siRNA for neurodegenerative conditions.

It has a strategic collaboration agreement with GlaxoSmithKline plc for the development and commercialization of progranulin-elevating monoclonal antibodies, including Latozinemab and Nivisnebart. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

Stock analysis

Alector Inc (ALEC) currently trades at $2.53, while our estimate is $2.28, 10% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $1.71 (bear) to $2.85 (bull), the price of $2.53 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Alector Inc reported revenue of $21.0M in FY2025 versus $207M in FY2021, a compound −43.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$143M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $366M Small · P/E ratio 6.8 · P/S ratio 2.11 · EPS (TTM) $0.3700 · Net margin 23.9% · Return on equity 47.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −25.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 76.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 122% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −10%, ALEC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $1.71 Fair Value $2.28 Bull $2.85
Price $2.53 · Downside -9.9%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 26/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 1
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 18
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 40
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 46
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 77
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 94
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $523,367 and none bought.

  • SaleGrace Wong-SaradPrincipal Accounting Officer9× since Dec 3, 2025: 49,776 shares, avg. $1.99$99,031Sep 4, 2026
  • SaleNeil Lindsay BerkleyCFO & Chief Business Officer4× since Dec 3, 2025: 115,521 shares, avg. $1.91$220,535Sep 3, 2026
  • SaleArnon RosenthalChief Executive Officer, Director4× since Dec 3, 2025: 346,033 shares, avg. $1.89$655,368Sep 3, 2026
  • SaleSara Kenkare-MitraPresident and Head of R&D41,687 shares at $1.12$46,689Dec 3, 2025

Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−79.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−46.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−925.1% (2020) → −692.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ALEC screens overvalued: fair value 10% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 848 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −9.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 47.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets −48.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 23.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 76.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 49.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.30× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 6.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 11.95× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 2.11× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.4× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)20 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)85 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 20

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $919.96 $1,275 +39% vs ALEC
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,468,000 KRW 1,661,000 KRW +13% vs ALEC
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $550.87 $601.80 +9% vs ALEC
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,581 kr 3,880 +8% vs ALEC
argenx SE ARGX $962.27 $908.40 −6% vs ALEC
CSL Limited CSL A$200.73 A$181.40 −10% vs ALEC
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$252.20 HK$152.80 −39% vs ALEC
Moderna, Inc MRNA $269.00 $158.70 −41% vs ALEC
Celltrion, Inc 068270 203,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −63% vs ALEC
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $68.77 $19.01 −72% vs ALEC

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Alector Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alector Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALEC

Frequently asked questions

Is Alector Inc (ALEC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $2.28 versus a price of $2.53, about 10% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALEC?
Our estimate for Alector Inc is $2.28 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.53.
What is the quality score of ALEC?
Alector Inc has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alector Inc (ALEC)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $2.28 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Cautious scenario $1.71, optimistic scenario $2.85. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Alector Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $2.28, about 10% lower versus a price of $2.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.71, optimistic scenario $2.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Alector Inc (ALEC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alector Inc it is $2.28 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $2.53.
Is Alector Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, ALEC trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.53, fair value $2.28, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALEC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.28). For Alector Inc the two are $0.2500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alector Inc worth?
The market values Alector Inc at about $366M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $2.53; our models calculate a fair value of $2.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALEC?
Our models span a range for Alector Inc: cautious scenario $1.71, base $2.28, optimistic $2.85 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $2.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALEC?
Alector Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.8 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 12.0, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alector Inc (ALEC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alector Inc (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 47.5%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALEC from its 52-week high?
Alector Inc trades at $2.53, about 7% below its 52-week high of $2.72 and 122% above the low of $1.14 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alector Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Moderna, Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alector Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $2.53, calculated fair value $2.28 (−10%), Quality Score 26/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Alector Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alector Inc (ALEC)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $2.53. Our estimate is $2.28, about 10% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alector Inc right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Alector Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Alector Inc (ALEC)?
The market capitalisation of Alector Inc is $366M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alector Inc (ALEC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alector Inc is 2.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alector Inc (ALEC)?
Earnings per share at Alector Inc are $0.3700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alector Inc (ALEC)?
The net margin of Alector Inc is 23.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alector Inc (ALEC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alector Inc is 47.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alector Inc (ALEC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alector Inc is −25.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alector Inc (ALEC)?
The operating margin of Alector Inc is 76.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alector Inc (ALEC)?
Revenue at Alector Inc is growing +49.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −46.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alector Inc (ALEC)?
Earnings per share at Alector Inc are growing −86.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alector Inc (ALEC) generate?
The free cash flow of Alector Inc is −$184M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Alector Inc (ALEC) hold?
Alector Inc holds more cash than debt, $29.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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