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Alumis Inc (ALMS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Alumis Inc $1.43, price $8.11, upside -82.4%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US0223071020

AI Alumis Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Alumis Inc

ALMS · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $1.43 · Strongly overvalued (−82%)
!Quality 37/100
!Weak Growth
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/6)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$30.30 $2.80 Fair Value $1.43 Jun 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

27‑month range $2.80 – $30.30 · fair‑value band $0.9435 – $1.79 · the $8.11 price screens above the $1.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders.

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Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. The company offers envudeucitinib, a tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psoriasis and systemic lupus erythematosus; and A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor that is in Phase 1 for the treatment of neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. It also develops lonigutamab, a monoclonal antibody targeting IGF-1R for the treatment of thyroid eye diseases; and interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) to address immune dysfunction. The company was formerly known as Esker Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. Alumis Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

Stock analysis

Alumis Inc (ALMS) currently trades at $8.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.43, implying the stock looks roughly 467.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.9435 (bear) to $1.79 (bull), the price of $8.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Alumis Inc reported revenue of $24.1M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$243M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $6.9B · EPS (TTM) $−1.78 · Return on equity −64.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −118% · Operating margin −5,652% · Revenue (TTM) $8.4M · Revenue growth (YoY) −90.0% · Free cash flow −$370M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 194% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −82%, ALMS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.9435 Fair Value $1.43 Bull $1.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.22 $1.64 $2.44 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.22 $1.64 $2.44 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 90
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 23
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 93
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 48
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ALMS screens 468% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 648 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside −82% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −59% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −90% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 22.89× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.99 $566.49 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $803.90 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.24 A$197.16 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $368.08 $280.94 −24%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Alumis Inc · Fair Value
$1.43 −468%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alumis Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALMS

Frequently asked questions

Is Alumis Inc (ALMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.43 versus a price of $8.11, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALMS?
Our model-based fair value for Alumis Inc is $1.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.11.
What is the quality score of ALMS?
Alumis Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alumis Inc (ALMS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9435, optimistic scenario $1.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alumis Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.43, about −82% upside versus a price of $8.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.9435, optimistic scenario $1.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alumis Inc (ALMS)?
Alumis Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alumis Inc (ALMS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alumis Inc it is $1.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.11. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alumis Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALMS trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.11, fair value $1.43, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALMS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.43). For Alumis Inc the two are $6.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alumis Inc worth?
The market values Alumis Inc at about $6.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.11; our models calculate a fair value of $1.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALMS?
Our models span a range for Alumis Inc: cautious scenario $0.9435, base $1.43, optimistic $1.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $8.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alumis Inc (ALMS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alumis Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −64.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALMS from its 52-week high?
Alumis Inc trades at $8.11, about 73% below its 52-week high of $30.60 and 194% above the low of $2.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alumis Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alumis Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.11, calculated fair value $1.43 (−82%), Quality Score 37/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALMS calculated?
We run Alumis Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alumis Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alumis Inc (ALMS)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $8.11. Our model-based fair value is $1.43, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alumis Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.9435 to $1.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Alumis Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Alumis Inc (ALMS)?
The market capitalisation of Alumis Inc is $6.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Alumis Inc (ALMS)?
Earnings per share at Alumis Inc are $−1.78. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Alumis Inc (ALMS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alumis Inc is −64.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alumis Inc (ALMS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alumis Inc is −118% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alumis Inc (ALMS)?
The operating margin of Alumis Inc is −5,652% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alumis Inc (ALMS)?
Revenue at Alumis Inc is growing −90.0% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Alumis Inc (ALMS) generate?
The free cash flow of Alumis Inc is −$370M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Alumis Inc (ALMS) hold?
Alumis Inc holds more cash than debt, $52.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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