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Babcock International Group (BCKIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Babcock International Group $12.74, price $12.61, upside +1.0%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US · ISIN GB0009697037

Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Babcock International Group

BCKIF · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $12.74 · Fairly valued (+1.0%)

✓Quality 70/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.8 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 5.8% net margin (TTM)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

✓0.6% dividend yield · Well covered

!Moderate moat 58/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.69 – $20.57 · fair‑value band $7.61 – $17.66 · the $12.61 price screens below the $12.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Babcock International Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and integration of specialist systems for aerospace, defense, and security in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, Africa, North America, Australasia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Marine, Nuclear, Land, and Aviation. The company offers type 31 frigates, project lurcher, jackal contract, ground deployed advanced mortar system, general logistics vehicle, Babcock's LGE, and armored land cruiser 300. It also provides weapons handling systems, autonomous and uncrewed aerial systems, and engineering and systems integration. In addition, the company is involved in the design, integration, and through-life support of various connected combat, support, and surveillance vehicles; integration of long-range fires and C4ISTAR systems; provision of system engineering and general vehicle architecture services; and specialist vehicle conversions. Further, it provides equipment support, frontline support, and training services. The company was founded in 1891 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Babcock International Group (BCKIF) currently trades at $12.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.74, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.0%).

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $12.67 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the $12.61 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $4.54, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $7.61 (bear) to $17.66 (bull), the price of $12.61 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Babcock International Group reported revenue of £4.8B in FY2025 versus £4.0B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was £247M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $6.5B · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) $0.7500 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 44.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 1%, BCKIF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $7.61 Fair Value $12.74 Bull $17.66

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6800 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $6.25 $9.84 $15.16 79

Growth DCF $6.33 $9.45 $13.79 78

Owner Earnings $7.91 $12.40 $19.08 75

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $6.25 $9.84 $15.16 79

Owner Earnings $7.91 $12.40 $19.08 75

5Y Revenue Exit $7.55 $12.74 $19.42 71

5Y EBITDA Exit $9.33 $16.09 $24.07 74

5Y P/E Exit $8.09 $13.74 $19.74 70

10Y Revenue Exit $6.74 $11.30 $17.56 65

10Y EBITDA Exit $8.11 $13.59 $21.06 67

10Y P/E Exit $7.33 $11.98 $17.79 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $4.55 $14.89 $19.91 64

Lynch FV $3.34 $4.77 $6.21 61

PEG = 1.0 $3.34 $4.77 $6.21 57

EPV $6.70 $7.80 $8.75 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $0.6300 $1.26 $1.91 67

DDM Multi-Stage $0.6300 $1.06 $1.33 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $10.53 $14.04 $17.55 63

P/S Multiple $8.53 $11.37 $14.21 58

P/B Multiple $5.52 $7.36 $9.20 55

EV/EBIT $12.27 $16.46 $20.65 66

EV/EBITDA $12.43 $16.66 $20.90 67

EV/Revenue $8.68 $12.52 $16.36 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $0.8200 $1.10 $1.64 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $6.33 $9.45 $13.79 78

Rev-Margin DCF $7.55 $12.69 $18.65 72

Economic Profit

Residual Income $3.56 $4.54 $8.11 73

ROIC Compounder $7.11 $8.77 $10.55 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $8.87 $12.67 $16.47 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 76

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 76

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 38

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 44

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 99

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 39

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 27

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 9

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Revenue growth 1 year

+10.0%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+5.7%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+1.8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year

Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.0%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+4.6%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+4.0%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.0% vs −0.9%, picking up

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+14.9%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+5.4%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.3% a year for the price and +3.0% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)+6.0%

Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.0%

Projected 2028 (sales)+5.5%

Projected 2029 (sales)+5.0%

Projected 2030 (sales)+4.5%

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral

Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Babcock and Arqit demonstrate secure communications network designed to counter future quantum-enabled threats Yahoo Finance · Sep 22, 2026
Nuclear Decommissioning Service Market Outlook 2026-2035 - Featuring Profiles of 3 Leading Companies: AECOM, Babcock International, and Oran Yahoo Finance · Sep 17, 2026
Quest Global Expands Strategic Relationship with Babcock Through Five-Year Group Engineering Services Framework Yahoo Finance · Aug 26, 2026

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Values & ESG

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None of the checked exposures detected

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Babcock International Group · Fair Value
$12.74 +1%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BCKIF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Babcock International Group · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$12.74</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+1%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Babcock International Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BCKIF

Frequently asked questions

Is Babcock International Group (BCKIF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.74 versus a price of $12.61, about +1% upside (fairly valued).

What is the fair value of BCKIF?

Our model-based fair value for Babcock International Group is $12.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.61.

What is the quality score of BCKIF?

Babcock International Group has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.61, optimistic scenario $17.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Babcock International Group stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $12.74, about +1% upside versus a price of $12.61 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $7.61, optimistic scenario $17.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

Babcock International Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £5.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).

Does Babcock International Group pay a dividend?

Babcock International Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).

What growth is priced into Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Babcock International Group would have to grow free cash flow by +14.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BCKIF use?

Our models discount Babcock International Group at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Babcock International Group that is +14.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Babcock International Group (BCKIF) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Babcock International Group grew +1.8 % a year. The price currently implies +14.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Babcock International Group (BCKIF) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Babcock International Group (+14.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.68 %: that much free cash flow Babcock International Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Babcock International Group it is $12.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $12.61. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Babcock International Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 23, 2026, BCKIF trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.61, fair value $12.74, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of BCKIF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.74). For Babcock International Group the two are $0.1300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Babcock International Group worth?

The market values Babcock International Group at about $6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $12.61; our models calculate a fair value of $12.74 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCKIF?

Our models span a range for Babcock International Group: cautious scenario $7.61, base $12.74, optimistic $17.66 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $12.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

How far is BCKIF from its 52-week high?

Babcock International Group trades at $12.61, about 39% below its 52-week high of $20.57 and 1% above the low of $12.45 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.74 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Babcock International Group?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Babcock International Group stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $12.61, calculated fair value $12.74 (+1%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of BCKIF calculated?

We run Babcock International Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Babcock International Group currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.61. Our model-based fair value is $12.74, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Babcock International Group right now?

The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($7.61 to $17.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Where does the earnings growth of Babcock International Group (BCKIF) come from?

Earnings per share at Babcock International Group grew −2.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Babcock International Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

The market capitalisation of Babcock International Group is $6.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/E ratio of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

The price-to-earnings ratio of Babcock International Group is 16.8. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.

What is the P/S ratio of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Babcock International Group is 0.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

Earnings per share at Babcock International Group are $0.7500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

The dividend yield of Babcock International Group is 0.6% (payout 9.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

The net margin of Babcock International Group is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Babcock International Group is 44.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Babcock International Group is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

The operating margin of Babcock International Group is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

Revenue at Babcock International Group is growing +5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Babcock International Group (BCKIF)?

Earnings per share at Babcock International Group are growing +31.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Babcock International Group (BCKIF) carry?

The net debt of Babcock International Group is £379M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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