TopBuild Corp (BLD) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $9.9B
TopBuild Corp
BLD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $315.14 to $313.51 (−0.5%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price −12.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($160.23 to $441.97). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Our model range runs from $160.23 (bear) to $441.97 (bull), base $313.51. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 49/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $141.82 – $550.90 · fair‑value band $160.23 – $441.97 · the $354.53 price screens above the $313.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
TopBuild Corp (BLD) currently trades at $354.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $313.51, implying the stock looks roughly 11.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, TopBuild Corp generated revenue of $5.6B at a net margin of 9.0%. Revenue grew 17.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.3%. Net debt stands at $3.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $160.23 (bear case) to $441.97 (bull case); at $354.53, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -12%, BLD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($362.43) versus Asset-Based ($55.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TopBuild Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation and distribution of insulation and other building material products to the construction industry. The company operates in two segments, Installation and Specialty Distribution.
Full company description
TopBuild Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation and distribution of insulation and other building material products to the construction industry. The company operates in two segments, Installation and Specialty Distribution. It provides insulation products and accessories, glass and windows, rain gutters, garage doors, fireplaces, roofing materials, closet shelving, and other products. The company also offers insulation installation services for fiberglass batts and rolls, blown-in loose fill fiberglass, polyurethane spray foam, and blown-in loose fill cellulose applications; provides roofing installation services, re-roofing and maintenance for the commercial and industrial end markets including single ply roofing, built-up roofing systems, and metal roofing systems. In addition, it distributes building and mechanical insulation, insulation accessories, and other building product materials for the residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. The company serves single-family homebuilders, single-family custom builders, multi-family builders, commercial and industrial general contractors, school districts, municipalities, remodelers, and individual homeowners, as well as insulation contractors, gutter contractors, weatherization contractors, other contractors, dealers, metal building erectors, and modular home builders. It operates installation branches and distribution centers in the United States and Canada. The company was formerly known as Masco SpinCo Corp. and changed its name to TopBuild Corp. in March 2015. TopBuild Corp. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TopBuild Corp reported revenue of $5.4B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was $522M in FY2025, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2021.
BLD screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is QXO (QXO) Using Its TopBuild Deal To Quietly Redefine Its Risk And Governance Profile?
- QXO Completes Acquisition of TopBuild
- Stock Market Today, June 30: QXO Falls After TopBuild Merger-Election Results Show Most Shareholders Opt for Cash
- QXO Says TopBuild Shareholders Largely Opt for Cash in Merger Election; $1.25 Billion of Senior Notes Tendered
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 831 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹232.67 | ₹61.46 | -74% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹102.36 | ₹48.22 | -53% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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