Topbuild Corp (BLD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 2, 2026: fair value of Topbuild Corp $390, price $355, upside +10.0%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $141.82 – $550.90 · fair‑value band $228.18 – $506.97 · the $354.53 price screens below the $389.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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TopBuild Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation and distribution of insulation and other building material products to the construction industry. The company operates in two segments, Installation and Specialty Distribution.
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TopBuild Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation and distribution of insulation and other building material products to the construction industry. The company operates in two segments, Installation and Specialty Distribution. It provides insulation products and accessories, glass and windows, rain gutters, garage doors, fireplaces, roofing materials, closet shelving, and other products. The company also offers insulation installation services for fiberglass batts and rolls, blown-in loose fill fiberglass, polyurethane spray foam, and blown-in loose fill cellulose applications; provides roofing installation services, re-roofing and maintenance for the commercial and industrial end markets including single ply roofing, built-up roofing systems, and metal roofing systems. In addition, it distributes building and mechanical insulation, insulation accessories, and other building product materials for the residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. The company serves single-family homebuilders, single-family custom builders, multi-family builders, commercial and industrial general contractors, school districts, municipalities, remodelers, and individual homeowners, as well as insulation contractors, gutter contractors, weatherization contractors, other contractors, dealers, metal building erectors, and modular home builders. It operates installation branches and distribution centers in the United States and Canada. The company was formerly known as Masco SpinCo Corp. and changed its name to TopBuild Corp. in March 2015. TopBuild Corp. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.
Stock analysis
Topbuild Corp (BLD) currently trades at $354.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $389.98, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $422.93 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $354.53 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $55.37, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $228.18 (bear) to $506.97 (bull), the price of $354.53 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Topbuild Corp reported revenue of $5.4B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was $522M in FY2025, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.0B · P/E ratio 19.9 · P/S ratio 1.92 · EPS (TTM) $17.80 · Net margin 9.6% · Return on equity 22.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.2% · Operating margin 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 10%, BLD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $228.18Fair Value $389.98Bull $506.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($13.46 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.1% vs 25.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.9% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 791 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.20× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)19.9× · Pricier than median
P/B4.31× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Topbuild Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BLD
Frequently asked questions
Is Topbuild Corp (BLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $389.98 versus the last price from Jul 2, 2026 of $354.53, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BLD?
Our model-based fair value for Topbuild Corp is $389.98 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 2, 2026): $354.53.
What is the quality score of BLD?
Topbuild Corp has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $389.98 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $228.18, optimistic scenario $506.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Topbuild Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $389.98, about +10% upside versus the last price from Jul 2, 2026 of $354.53 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $228.18, optimistic scenario $506.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
Topbuild Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Topbuild Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.8 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BLD use?
Our models discount Topbuild Corp at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Topbuild Corp that is +12.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Topbuild Corp (BLD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Topbuild Corp grew +14.8 % a year. The price currently implies +12.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Topbuild Corp (BLD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Topbuild Corp (+12.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.99 %: that much free cash flow Topbuild Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Topbuild Corp it is $389.98 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $354.53. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Topbuild Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, BLD trades below its calculated fair value: price $354.53, fair value $389.98, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BLD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($354.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($389.98). For Topbuild Corp the two are $35.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Topbuild Corp worth?
The market values Topbuild Corp at about $10.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $354.53; our models calculate a fair value of $389.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BLD?
Our models span a range for Topbuild Corp: cautious scenario $228.18, base $389.98, optimistic $506.97 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $354.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BLD?
Topbuild Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.9 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $389.98 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.3, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 12.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Topbuild Corp (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 22.3%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BLD from its 52-week high?
Topbuild Corp trades at $354.53, about 36% below its 52-week high of $550.90 and 6% above the low of $335.39 (as of Jul 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $389.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Topbuild Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Topbuild Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $354.53, calculated fair value $389.98 (+10%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BLD calculated?
We run Topbuild Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $389.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Topbuild Corp currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 2, 2026 and stands at $354.53. Our model-based fair value is $389.98, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Topbuild Corp right now?
A fairly wide model range ($228.18 to $506.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Topbuild Corp (BLD) come from?
Earnings per share at Topbuild Corp grew +33.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.0 %, EBIT margin +13.7 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Topbuild Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
The market capitalisation of Topbuild Corp is $10.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Topbuild Corp is 1.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
Earnings per share at Topbuild Corp are $17.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
The net margin of Topbuild Corp is 9.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Topbuild Corp is 22.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Topbuild Corp is 15.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
The operating margin of Topbuild Corp is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
Revenue at Topbuild Corp is growing +17.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Topbuild Corp (BLD)?
Earnings per share at Topbuild Corp are growing −11.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Topbuild Corp (BLD) carry?
The net debt of Topbuild Corp is $3.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026