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Chevron Corporation (CHVX34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Chevron Corporation BRL 44.52, price BRL 108, upside -58.8%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Chevron Corporation
CHVX34 · SAStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value R$44.52 · Strongly overvalued (−58.8%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +14.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓6.4% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 43/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$43.48 – R$111.61 · fair‑value band R$30.11 – R$60.30 · the R$108.01 price screens above the R$44.52 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and All Other segments.
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Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and All Other segments. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration for, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification of liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and operation of a gas-to-liquids plant. Its Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The All Other segment engages in cash management and debt financing; insurance; real estate; and technology activities. It has operations in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in May 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Chevron Corporation (CHVX34) currently trades at R$108.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$44.52, 58.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of R$52.14 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$108.01 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R$19.18, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$30.11 (bear) to R$60.30 (bull), the price of R$108.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Chevron Corporation reported revenue of $184B in FY2025 versus $156B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $12.3B in FY2025, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$1.8T (≈ $347B) · P/E ratio 36.4 · P/S ratio 2.43 · EPS (TTM) R$2.97 · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −59%, CHVX34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$30.11
Fair Value R$44.52
Bull R$60.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
R$39.82
R$59.22
R$94.63
77
Growth DCF
R$41.86
R$60.78
R$93.04
75
EPV
R$15.01
R$19.18
R$22.89
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R$39.82
R$59.22
R$94.63
77
Owner Earnings
R$35.58
R$53.27
R$85.58
73
5Y Revenue Exit
R$32.94
R$51.35
R$76.87
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$33.76
R$52.76
R$76.69
72
5Y P/E Exit
R$27.58
R$42.15
R$58.66
68
10Y Revenue Exit
R$33.89
R$50.72
R$70.15
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$35.58
R$51.68
R$70.02
67
10Y P/E Exit
R$31.68
R$44.47
R$57.59
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$21.93
R$39.73
R$49.06
64
EPV
R$15.01
R$19.18
R$22.89
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$32.16
R$42.92
R$54.19
67
DDM Multi-Stage
R$32.16
R$44.83
R$60.66
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$33.86
R$45.15
R$56.44
63
P/S Multiple
R$41.12
R$54.83
R$68.53
58
P/B Multiple
R$41.12
R$54.83
R$68.53
55
EV/EBIT
R$26.82
R$38.63
R$50.44
65
EV/EBITDA
R$36.41
R$51.41
R$66.41
67
EV/Revenue
R$32.02
R$49.43
R$66.84
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$24.45
R$32.76
R$48.89
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R$41.86
R$60.78
R$93.04
75
Rev-Margin DCF
R$32.94
R$52.14
R$75.08
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$40.24
R$42.50
R$46.39
74
ROIC Compounder
R$15.01
R$19.18
R$22.89
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$24.42
R$34.88
R$45.35
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
36
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+24.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → 10%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−16.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.6% a year for the price and −3.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+23.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−7.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)−6.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)−5.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)−4.1%
CHVX34 screens overvalued: fair value 59% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
- Vitesse Energy (VTS) Acquires Chevron-Backed Assets in $26 Million Deal. Can it Drive Further Growth?
- Chevron Stock And 2 Top Dividend Stocks
- Chevron (CVX) Plans a Major Exploration Push: What Investors Need to Know
- Chevron (CVX) Accelerates Cyprus Gas Export Plans Through Egypt
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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| Suncor Energy Inc SU | $67.87 | $70.17 | +3% |
| Imperial Oil Limited IMO | $122.34 | $94.61 | −23% |
| Cenovus Energy Inc CVE | $31.10 | $33.39 | +7% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Chevron Corporation (CHVX34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$44.52 versus a price of R$108.01, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CHVX34?
Our model-based fair value for Chevron Corporation is R$44.52 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$108.01.
What is the quality score of CHVX34?
Chevron Corporation has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$44.52 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$30.11, optimistic scenario R$60.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chevron Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$44.52, about −59% upside versus a price of R$108.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$30.11, optimistic scenario R$60.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
Chevron Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $186B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Chevron Corporation pay a dividend?
Chevron Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chevron Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -16.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.3 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHVX34 use?
Our models discount Chevron Corporation at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chevron Corporation that is -16.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chevron Corporation (CHVX34) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chevron Corporation grew +14.3 % a year. The price currently implies -16.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chevron Corporation (-16.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 40.51 %: that much free cash flow Chevron Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chevron Corporation it is R$44.52 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$108.01. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chevron Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CHVX34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$108.01, fair value R$44.52, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHVX34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$108.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$44.52). For Chevron Corporation the two are R$63.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chevron Corporation worth?
The market values Chevron Corporation at about R$1.8T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$108.01; our models calculate a fair value of R$44.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHVX34?
Our models span a range for Chevron Corporation: cautious scenario R$30.11, base R$44.52, optimistic R$60.30 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$108.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CHVX34 from its 52-week high?
Chevron Corporation trades at R$108.01, about 3% below its 52-week high of R$111.61 and 37% above the low of R$78.70 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$44.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chevron Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, PetroChina Company, TotalEnergies SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chevron Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$108.01, calculated fair value R$44.52 (−59%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHVX34 calculated?
We run Chevron Corporation through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$44.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Chevron Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$108.01. Our model-based fair value is R$44.52, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chevron Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$60.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$30.11 to R$60.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Chevron Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
The market capitalisation of Chevron Corporation is R$1.8T (≈ $347B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Chevron Corporation is 36.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chevron Corporation is 2.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
Earnings per share at Chevron Corporation are R$2.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
The dividend yield of Chevron Corporation is 6.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
The net margin of Chevron Corporation is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chevron Corporation is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chevron Corporation is 9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
The operating margin of Chevron Corporation is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
Revenue at Chevron Corporation is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chevron Corporation (CHVX34)?
Earnings per share at Chevron Corporation are growing −44.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chevron Corporation (CHVX34) carry?
The net debt of Chevron Corporation is $33.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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