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Data-driven stock valuation

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Exxon Mobil Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Energy · US · Market cap $606B · ISIN US30231G1022

At a glance

EM Exxon Mobil Corp logo Exxon Mobil Corp XOM · US
Price$159.47
Fair Value$88.98
Upside−44.2%
Quality56/100

A solid business, but trading 79% above our fair value of $88.98.

As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Exxon Mobil Corp is $88.98 per share against a price of $159.47, so the fair value sits 44% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +12.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.8% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·2.53% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/15)
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Weak on future: 13 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $59.15 to $117.22

Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated today

Share price +5.2% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($117.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($59.15 to $117.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$170.31 $44.53 Fair Value $88.98 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $44.53 – $170.31 · fair‑value band $59.15 – $117.22 · the $159.47 price screens above the $88.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) currently trades at $159.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $88.98, implying the stock looks roughly 79.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $88.09 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $159.47 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $41.93, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Exxon Mobil Corp generated revenue of $326B at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. Net debt stands at $32.9B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026

Scenario range: $59.15 (bear) to $117.22 (bull), the price of $159.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −44%, XOM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.30 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $56.60 $83.44 $124.70 80
Growth DCF $59.00 $84.76 $122.70 78
Owner Earnings $64.16 $94.26 $140.54 76
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $56.60 $83.44 $124.70 80
Owner Earnings $64.16 $94.26 $140.54 76
5Y Revenue Exit $55.89 $86.76 $125.43 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $52.93 $81.62 $113.99 75
5Y P/E Exit $57.43 $89.44 $121.69 71
10Y Revenue Exit $53.67 $81.48 $114.72 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $53.72 $77.96 $106.43 69
10Y P/E Exit $56.57 $83.31 $112.01 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $47.32 $95.94 $120.79 66
EPV $48.44 $57.99 $66.48 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $73.07 $97.42 $121.78 63
P/S Multiple $70.33 $93.77 $117.22 58
P/B Multiple $84.48 $112.64 $140.80 55
EV/EBIT $55.72 $76.19 $96.66 66
EV/EBITDA $59.38 $81.07 $102.76 67
EV/Revenue $59.96 $88.09 $116.22 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $31.29 $41.93 $62.58 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $59.00 $84.76 $122.70 78
Rev-Margin DCF $55.89 $87.56 $121.51 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $57.55 $67.21 $131.02 72
ROIC Compounder $48.44 $57.99 $68.55 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $54.50 $77.86 $101.22 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($88.09) versus Asset-Based ($41.93). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 26.8
P/S ratio 2.39 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $5.94 price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.8
Dividend yield 2.5% payout 68.0%
Net margin 8.9% FY2025
Return on equity 9.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 6.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $326B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.6% 3y avg −6.7%
EPS growth (YoY) −43.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $23.6B FY2025
Net debt $32.9B FY2025 · ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 60
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 81
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 77
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas.

Full company description

Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. Its Chemical Products segment manufactures and sells olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers finished lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. It is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima resin systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data center, and lithium. In addition, the company offers aviation fuel. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. Exxon Mobil Corporation was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Spring, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Exxon Mobil Corp reported revenue of $324B in FY2025 versus $277B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was $28.8B in FY2025, compounding +5.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$324B
Latest YoY
−4.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+11.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+8.9%
Dividend yield2.5%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 8.9% vs 10Y 5.7%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−16.5% (2020) → 10.5% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop207% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue +4.0%/yr
FY21 $277B
FY22 $399B
FY23 $335B
FY24 $339B
FY25 $324B
Net income +5.8%/yr
FY21 $23.0B
FY22 $55.7B
FY23 $36.0B
FY24 $33.7B
FY25 $28.8B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.0 %

of which total revenue +2.0 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin +7.9 %
Tax rate +0.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

XOM screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Chevron Corporation →

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Exxon Mobil Corp · Fair Value
$88.98 −79%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exxon Mobil Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XOM

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −44% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.13× · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.34× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.86× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 25.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 11.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.20× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Exxon Mobil Corp deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+8.7 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+12.6 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price3.44 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models7.6 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 5
FUTURE13 · sector 12
PAST39 · sector 43
HEALTH93 · sector 86
DIVIDEND51 · sector 75

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Chevron Corporation CVX $208.60 $90.66 −57%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥11.17 ¥15.47 +38%
Shell plc SHELL €40.28 €39.46 −2%
TotalEnergies SE TOTB €75.55 €69.02 −9%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA €7.74 €2.06 −73%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.52 ¥4.59 −17%
Equinor ASA EQNR kr 395.90 kr 338.01 −15%
Suncor Energy Inc SU C$94.21 C$59.11 −37%
Eni S.p.A E $55.12 $32.53 −41%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO $130.51 $94.61 −28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $88.98 versus a price of $159.47, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XOM?
Our model-based fair value for Exxon Mobil Corp is $88.98 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $159.47.
What is the quality score of XOM?
Exxon Mobil Corp has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $88.98 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $59.15, optimistic scenario $117.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exxon Mobil Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $88.98, about −44% upside versus a price of $159.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $59.15, optimistic scenario $117.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)?
Exxon Mobil Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $326B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of XOM?
The net profit margin of Exxon Mobil Corp is about 7.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Exxon Mobil Corp pay a dividend?
Exxon Mobil Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Exxon Mobil Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +8.7 % per year for ten years (discount rate 7.6 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.6 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XOM use?
Our models discount Exxon Mobil Corp at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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