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Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft $1.19, price $1.60, upside -25.6%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ISIN DE0007314007

HD Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft

HBGRF · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $1.19 · Overvalued (−25.6%)
!Quality 52/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.7% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$4.02 $0.5700 Fair Value $1.19 Jun 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.5700 – $4.02 · fair‑value band $0.8900 – $1.49 · the $1.60 price screens above the $1.19 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures printing presses in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas. It operates through Packaging Solutions, Packaging Solutions, and Packaging Solutions segments.

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Heidelberger Druckmaschinen, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures printing presses in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas. It operates through Packaging Solutions, Packaging Solutions, and Packaging Solutions segments. The company offers connected luxury packaging, high-volume packaging, and pharma packaging; equipment and services for packaging production, such as offset printing, die-cutting and embossing, folding carton gluing, inline flexo printing, inspection systems, hot foil stamping, and services and consumables. It also provides equipment and services for commercial printing, including digital printing, offset printing, cutting and folding, and die cutting and embossing; equipment and services for label printing comprising offset printing, cutting and die-cutting, and narrow-web printing; and security printing solutions for ID cards, passports, driver licenses, credit and bank cards, tax stamps, and official certificates. In addition, the company offers production solutions for foundry, manufacturing, assembly, and electronics; consumables for prepress consisting of plates and related chemistry, films and related chemistry, proofing, and flexo; consumables for presses, which include inks, coatings, blankets, ink and dampening rollers, pressroom chemicals, ink duct foils, wash-up cloths, and spray powders; and cutting supplies, folding supplies, binding supplies, and folding carton gluing supplies for postpress consumables. Further, it develops and produces customized control and power electronics; develops intelligent charging solutions for electromobility, Wallbox line, and fast-charging systems. The company was formerly known as Schnellpressenfabrik AG Heidelberg and changed its name to Heidelberger Druckmaschinen in 1967. Heidelberger Druckmaschinen was founded in 1850 and is based in Heidelberg, Germany.

Stock analysis

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, (HBGRF) currently trades at $1.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.19, 25.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $2.51 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the $1.60 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.4600, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $0.8900 (bear) to $1.49 (bull), the price of $1.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, reported revenue of €2.3B in FY2026 versus €2.2B in FY2022, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was €15.1M in FY2026, compounding −17.8%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $480M · P/E ratio 26.7 · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) $0.0600 · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% · Operating margin −0.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −26%, HBGRF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.8900 Fair Value $1.19 Bull $1.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0306 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $2.03 $2.51 $3.31 78
EPV $1.80 $1.98 $2.13 74
ROIC Compounder $1.80 $1.98 $2.14 72
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $2.03 $2.51 $3.31 78
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.3800 $0.4600 $0.5200 67
EPV $1.80 $1.98 $2.13 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.8800 $1.17 $1.46 63
P/S Multiple $0.7100 $0.9500 $1.18 58
P/B Multiple $0.7100 $0.9500 $1.18 55
EV/EBIT $3.63 $4.69 $5.75 66
EV/EBITDA $5.70 $7.45 $9.19 67
EV/Revenue $2.72 $3.69 $4.66 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.05 $1.41 $2.11 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.44 $1.40 $1.39 71
ROIC Compounder $1.80 $1.98 $2.14 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $0.6200 $0.8800 $1.15 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 17
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 9
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 26/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+6.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.3% vs −8.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

HBGRF screens overvalued: fair value 26% below the price. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 789 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −27.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2.7% · Below median
Return on assets 1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −0.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −11.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.85× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.21× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 3.7× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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GE Vernova Inc GEV $950.49 $142.61 −85%
SIE SIE €271.90 €150.42 −45%
Eaton Corporation ETN $433.27 $173.12 −60%
Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH $970.37 $494.81 −49%
Emerson Electric Co EMR $155.10 $62.54 −60%
Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW $257.28 $153.33 −40%
Cummins Inc CMI $516.57 $359.11 −30%
AMETEK, Inc AME $250.74 $125.77 −50%
Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK $442.45 $139.31 −69%
Sandvik AB SAND kr 362.00 kr 193.59 −47%

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$1.19 −26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HBGRF

Frequently asked questions

Is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.19 versus a price of $1.60, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HBGRF?
Our model-based fair value for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, is $1.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.60.
What is the quality score of HBGRF?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.19 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8900, optimistic scenario $1.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.19, about −26% upside versus a price of $1.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.8900, optimistic scenario $1.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, it is $1.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.60. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HBGRF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.60, fair value $1.19, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HBGRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.19). For Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, the two are $0.4100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, worth?
The market values Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, at about $480M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.60; our models calculate a fair value of $1.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HBGRF?
Our models span a range for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft,: cautious scenario $0.8900, base $1.19, optimistic $1.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HBGRF?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HBGRF from its 52-week high?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, trades at $1.60, about 34% below its 52-week high of $2.43 and 1% above the low of $1.58 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft,?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.60, calculated fair value $1.19 (−26%), Quality Score 52/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HBGRF calculated?
We run Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $1.60. Our model-based fair value is $1.19, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF) come from?
Earnings per share at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, grew −7.4 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.8 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate −7.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft,

How large is the market capitalisation of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
The market capitalisation of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, is $480M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, is 0.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, are $0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
The net margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, is 0.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
The operating margin of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
Revenue at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, is growing −11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF)?
Earnings per share at Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, are growing +80.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF) generate?
The free cash flow of Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, is −€29.0M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft (HBGRF) hold?
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft, holds more cash than debt, €40.2M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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