HCB Financial Corp (HCBN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 1, 2026: fair value of HCB Financial Corp $48.13, price $75.00, upside -35.8%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.37 – $75.00 · fair‑value band $42.07 – $83.74 · the $75.00 price screens above the $48.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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HCB Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for Highpoint Community Bank that provides various banking products and services in the United States.
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HCB Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for Highpoint Community Bank that provides various banking products and services in the United States. The company offers personal and premier checking accounts; savings accounts; mortgage loans; and personal loans, including automobile, recreational vehicle, unsecured, credit builder, and student loans, as well as personal line of credit. It also provides business checking and savings accounts; business loan services, such as real estate lending, lines of credit, and term loans; small business administration loans; other services comprising sweep, courier banking, merchant and business credit card, night depositor, and wire services, as well as health savings accounts and business mentoring; and digital services. In addition, the company provides trust services, such as personal trust, estate settlement, corporate retirement plan services, and individual retirement account; and investment services. Further, it provides annuities, bonds, IRAs, life insurance, long term care/insurance products, mutual funds, and stocks. HCB Financial Corp. was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Hastings, Michigan.
Stock analysis
HCB Financial Corp (HCBN) currently trades at $75.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.13, 35.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $66.52 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $75.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $17.98, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $42.07 (bear) to $83.74 (bull), the price of $75.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
HCB Financial Corp reported revenue of $31.3M in FY2025 versus $15.4M in FY2021, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was $6.2M in FY2025, compounding +27.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $75.9M · P/E ratio 12.3 · P/S ratio 2.42 · EPS (TTM) $6.08 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 19.6% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 122% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −36%, HCBN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $42.07Fair Value $48.13Bull $83.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.54 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.7% vs 14.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 23%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−35.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)26.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)23.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.3× · Pricier than median
P/B1.60× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.40× · Pricier than median
P/FCF17.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)55· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)75· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)37· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is HCB Financial Corp (HCBN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.13 versus the last price from Jul 1, 2026 of $75.00, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HCBN?
Our model-based fair value for HCB Financial Corp is $48.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 1, 2026): $75.00.
What is the quality score of HCBN?
HCB Financial Corp has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $42.07, optimistic scenario $83.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HCB Financial Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.13, about −36% upside versus the last price from Jul 1, 2026 of $75.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $42.07, optimistic scenario $83.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
HCB Financial Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $22.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does HCB Financial Corp pay a dividend?
HCB Financial Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.87% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HCB Financial Corp would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HCBN use?
Our models discount HCB Financial Corp at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HCB Financial Corp that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HCB Financial Corp (HCBN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HCB Financial Corp grew +14.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HCB Financial Corp (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.89 %: that much free cash flow HCB Financial Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HCB Financial Corp it is $48.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $75.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HCB Financial Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HCBN trades above its calculated fair value: price $75.00, fair value $48.13, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCBN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($75.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.13). For HCB Financial Corp the two are $26.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HCB Financial Corp worth?
The market values HCB Financial Corp at about $75.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $75.00; our models calculate a fair value of $48.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCBN?
Our models span a range for HCB Financial Corp: cautious scenario $42.07, base $48.13, optimistic $83.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $75.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HCBN?
HCB Financial Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $48.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 3.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
Balance-sheet figures for HCB Financial Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.7%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCBN from its 52-week high?
HCB Financial Corp trades at $75.00, at its 52-week high of $75.00 and 122% above the low of $33.79 (as of Jul 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HCB Financial Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HCB Financial Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $75.00, calculated fair value $48.13 (−36%), Quality Score 54/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCBN calculated?
We run HCB Financial Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HCB Financial Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 1, 2026 and stands at $75.00. Our model-based fair value is $48.13, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HCB Financial Corp right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($42.07 to $83.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN) come from?
Earnings per share at HCB Financial Corp grew +15.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.2 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of HCB Financial Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
The market capitalisation of HCB Financial Corp is $75.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HCB Financial Corp is 2.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
Earnings per share at HCB Financial Corp are $6.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
The dividend yield of HCB Financial Corp is 1.9% (payout 23.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
The net margin of HCB Financial Corp is 19.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HCB Financial Corp is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HCB Financial Corp is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
The operating margin of HCB Financial Corp is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
Revenue at HCB Financial Corp is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HCB Financial Corp (HCBN)?
Earnings per share at HCB Financial Corp are growing −19.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does HCB Financial Corp (HCBN) hold?
HCB Financial Corp holds more cash than debt, $152M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026