Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bank Central Asia Tbk stock IDR 4,036, price IDR 5,125, that is 21.3% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 21% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 64/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +10.2 %/yr in IDR)
Highly profitable · 53.3% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
6.4% dividend yield · Sustainable
Ranks above peers(11/15)
Wide moat87/100
Fair value 4,036 IDR · Overvalued (−21.3%)
Thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Market-wide selloff after MSCI opened reclassification consultation🚩MSCI consultation on Indonesia reclassification to standalone status🚩Digital banks with tech ties could erode deposits and loans
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4,816 IDR – 9,990 IDR · fair‑value band 2,525 IDR – 5,442 IDR · the 5,125 IDR price screens above the 4,036 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 31, 2026.
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PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides commercial banking and other financial services.
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The company offers time deposits, e- deposits, spinning, Dana Lander accounts, customer accounts, gold stage; loans, such as business, investment credit, securities collateral, multipurpose business, trade finance, business place loans; credit cards; and investment, including mutual funds, and bond and secondary SBN. The company also provides collection account opening, remittance, trade finance, tresuries and custodians, transaction banking, electronic banking, cash management, bank assurance, credit facilities, bank guarantees, export-import facilities, and foreign exchange facilities.
In addition, the company offers investment financing, working capital financing, multipurpose financing, operating leases, and other financing activities; Sharia banking; securities brokerage dealer and underwriter for issuance of securities; general or loss insurance; life insurance; and venture capital services.
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Bank Central Asia Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Dwimuria Investama Andalan.
Stock analysis
Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) currently trades at 5,125 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4,036 IDR, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of 3,735 IDR per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the 5,125 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1,525 IDR, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2,525 IDR (bear) to 5,442 IDR (bull), the price of 5,125 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Bank Central Asia Tbk reported revenue of 125T IDR in FY2025 versus 80.1T IDR in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was 57.5T IDR in FY2025, compounding +16.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 630T IDR (≈ $34.7B) Large · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 5.65 · EPS (TTM) 486.91 IDR · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 53.3% · Return on equity 21.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 87 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −21%, BBCA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear2,525 IDRFair Value 4,036 IDRBull5,442 IDR
Price 5,125 IDR · Downside -21.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (136.66 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+21.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.0% vs 12.3%, steady
Profit margin 2000 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 57%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.0% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Strong scale and margins support a durable franchise in Indonesian banking, yet limited non-financial data and macro risks leave the quality assessment only moderately convincing.
Main risk: Rivals such as SeaBank tied to Shopee and Bank Jago tied to Gojek might draw customers with seamless ecosystem services and lower acquisition costs, pressuring BCA's deposit base and lending margins.
Bull case: BCA could deepen its own digital offerings and form partnerships with platforms to match the convenience of ecosystem banks and retain or grow its customer base.
Bear case: Should digital banks continue to gain traction through tech integrations, BCA might experience slower deposit inflows and reduced loan origination as customers migrate to more integrated alternatives.
BCA keeps expanding productive loans at double-digit rates while growing its low-cost CASA deposits, which supports a recovering net interest margin. The latest results prompted management to lift its full-year loan growth target above the original plan, highlighting solid operational momentum. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will this lending and funding strength outweigh any effects from potential changes in Indonesia's market classification?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−21.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)53.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)66.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.4% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank Central Asia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BBCA
Frequently asked questions
Is Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4,036 IDR versus a price of 5,125 IDR, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BBCA?
Our model-based fair value for Bank Central Asia Tbk is 4,036 IDR (as of Oct 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 5,125 IDR.
What is the quality score of BBCA?
Bank Central Asia Tbk has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4,036 IDR (as of Oct 31, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,525 IDR, optimistic scenario 5,442 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank Central Asia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4,036 IDR, about 21% lower versus a price of 5,125 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2,525 IDR, optimistic scenario 5,442 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Bank Central Asia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 111T IDR (latest available figure, as of Oct 31, 2026).
Does Bank Central Asia Tbk pay a dividend?
Bank Central Asia Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of 6.36% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 31, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank Central Asia Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.2 % per year. As of Oct 31, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BBCA use?
Our models discount Bank Central Asia Tbk at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank Central Asia Tbk that is -5.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank Central Asia Tbk grew +10.2 % a year. The price currently implies -5.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank Central Asia Tbk (-5.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.92 %: that much free cash flow Bank Central Asia Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank Central Asia Tbk it is 4,036 IDR per share (as of Oct 31, 2026), against a price of 5,125 IDR. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank Central Asia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 31, 2026, BBCA trades above its calculated fair value: price 5,125 IDR, fair value 4,036 IDR, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BBCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (5,125 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4,036 IDR). For Bank Central Asia Tbk the two are 1,089 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank Central Asia Tbk worth?
The market values Bank Central Asia Tbk at about 630T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 31, 2026). Per share that is 5,125 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 4,036 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BBCA?
Our models span a range for Bank Central Asia Tbk: cautious scenario 2,525 IDR, base 4,036 IDR, optimistic 5,442 IDR per share (as of Oct 31, 2026, price 5,125 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BBCA?
Bank Central Asia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Oct 31, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 4,036 IDR is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 23.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 2.2, P/S 5.7, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
What is the PEG ratio of BBCA?
The PEG ratio of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 1.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 31, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank Central Asia Tbk (as of Oct 31, 2026): return on equity 21.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BBCA from its 52-week high?
Bank Central Asia Tbk trades at 5,125 IDR, about 38% below its 52-week high of 8,222 IDR and 6% above the low of 4,816 IDR (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4,036 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank Central Asia Tbk?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank Central Asia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 31, 2026: price 5,125 IDR, calculated fair value 4,036 IDR (−21%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BBCA calculated?
We run Bank Central Asia Tbk through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4,036 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Bank Central Asia Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 5,125 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 4,036 IDR, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank Central Asia Tbk right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (2,525 IDR to 5,442 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) come from?
Earnings per share at Bank Central Asia Tbk grew +12.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.4 %, EBIT margin −6.0 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bank Central Asia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The market capitalisation of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 630T IDR (≈ $34.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 5.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Earnings per share at Bank Central Asia Tbk are 486.91 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The dividend yield of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 6.4% (payout 67.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The net margin of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 53.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 21.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The operating margin of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 66.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Revenue at Bank Central Asia Tbk is growing +7.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Earnings per share at Bank Central Asia Tbk are growing +9.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) hold?
Bank Central Asia Tbk holds more cash than debt, 88.5T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 31, 2026