Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Bank Central Asia Tbk is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4,835 IDR – 10,029 IDR · fair‑value band 3,478 IDR – 5,796 IDR · the 6,300 IDR price screens above the 4,637 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides commercial banking and other financial services.
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PT Bank Central Asia Tbk provides commercial banking and other financial services. The company offers time deposits, e- deposits, spinning, Dana Lander accounts, customer accounts, gold stage; loans, such as business, investment credit, securities collateral, multipurpose business, trade finance, business place loans; credit cards; and investment, including mutual funds, and bond and secondary SBN. The company also provides collection account opening, remittance, trade finance, tresuries and custodians, transaction banking, electronic banking, cash management, bank assurance, credit facilities, bank guarantees, export-import facilities, and foreign exchange facilities. In addition, the company offers investment financing, working capital financing, multipurpose financing, operating leases, and other financing activities; Sharia banking; securities brokerage dealer and underwriter for issuance of securities; general or loss insurance; life insurance; and venture capital services. PT Bank Central Asia Tbk was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Bank Central Asia Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Dwimuria Investama Andalan.
Stock analysis
Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) currently trades at 6,300 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4,637 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 35.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 4,267 IDR per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the 6,300 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1,535 IDR, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3,478 IDR (bear) to 5,796 IDR (bull), the price of 6,300 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Bank Central Asia Tbk reported revenue of 125T IDR in FY2025 versus 80.1T IDR in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was 57.5T IDR in FY2025, compounding +16.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 776T IDR (≈ $77.6B) · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 6.17 · EPS (TTM) 470.96 IDR · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 46.1% · Return on equity 23.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −26%, BBCA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 3,478 IDRFair Value 4,637 IDRBull 5,796 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (104.99 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15% vs 12%, steady
Profit margin 2000 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 57%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1073 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−31% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)53% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)68% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.4× · Pricier than median
P/B2.70× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.99× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.86× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)13· sector 44
PAST (return on equity)92· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank Central Asia Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BBCA
Frequently asked questions
Is Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4,637 IDR versus a price of 6,300 IDR, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BBCA?
Our model-based fair value for Bank Central Asia Tbk is 4,637 IDR (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 6,300 IDR.
What is the quality score of BBCA?
Bank Central Asia Tbk has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4,637 IDR (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3,478 IDR, optimistic scenario 5,796 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank Central Asia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4,637 IDR, about −26% upside versus a price of 6,300 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3,478 IDR, optimistic scenario 5,796 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Bank Central Asia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 109T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Bank Central Asia Tbk pay a dividend?
Bank Central Asia Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank Central Asia Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -1.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.2 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BBCA use?
Our models discount Bank Central Asia Tbk at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank Central Asia Tbk that is -1.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank Central Asia Tbk grew +10.2 % a year. The price currently implies -1.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank Central Asia Tbk (-1.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.67 %: that much free cash flow Bank Central Asia Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank Central Asia Tbk it is 4,637 IDR per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of 6,300 IDR. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank Central Asia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, BBCA trades above its calculated fair value: price 6,300 IDR, fair value 4,637 IDR, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BBCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (6,300 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4,637 IDR). For Bank Central Asia Tbk the two are 1,663 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank Central Asia Tbk worth?
The market values Bank Central Asia Tbk at about 776T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is 6,300 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 4,637 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BBCA?
Our models span a range for Bank Central Asia Tbk: cautious scenario 3,478 IDR, base 4,637 IDR, optimistic 5,796 IDR per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price 6,300 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BBCA?
Bank Central Asia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 4,637 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 2.7, P/S 7.0, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of BBCA?
The PEG ratio of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 2.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank Central Asia Tbk (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 23.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BBCA from its 52-week high?
Bank Central Asia Tbk trades at 6,300 IDR, about 27% below its 52-week high of 8,685 IDR and 30% above the low of 4,850 IDR (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4,637 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank Central Asia Tbk?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank Central Asia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price 6,300 IDR, calculated fair value 4,637 IDR (−26%), Quality Score 67/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BBCA calculated?
We run Bank Central Asia Tbk through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4,637 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bank Central Asia Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was 6,300 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 4,637 IDR, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank Central Asia Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5,796 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) come from?
Earnings per share at Bank Central Asia Tbk grew +12.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.4 %, EBIT margin −6.0 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bank Central Asia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The market capitalisation of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 776T IDR (≈ $77.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 6.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Earnings per share at Bank Central Asia Tbk are 470.96 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The dividend yield of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 5.2% (payout 69.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The net margin of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 46.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
The operating margin of Bank Central Asia Tbk is 67.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Revenue at Bank Central Asia Tbk is growing +2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA)?
Earnings per share at Bank Central Asia Tbk are growing +3.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) hold?
Bank Central Asia Tbk holds more cash than debt, 88.5T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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