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Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company $1.44, price $0.65, upside +121.5%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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HM
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Hainan Meilan International Airport Company
HMCTF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $1.44 · Strongly undervalued (+121.5%)
!Quality 47/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -13.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 13/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $0.6600 to $2.40
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6500 – $4.29 · fair‑value band $0.6600 – $2.40 · the $0.6500 price screens below the $1.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Hainan Meilan International Airport Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the aeronautical and non-aeronautical businesses at the Meilan Airport in the People's Republic of China. The company's aeronautical business includes the provision of terminal facilities, ground handling services, and passenger services.
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Hainan Meilan International Airport Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the aeronautical and non-aeronautical businesses at the Meilan Airport in the People's Republic of China. The company's aeronautical business includes the provision of terminal facilities, ground handling services, and passenger services. Its non-aeronautical business comprises the leasing of commercial and retail spaces at Meilan Airport; franchise of airport-related business; leasing of advertising space and parking lots; provision of car parking and cargo handling services; and sale of consumable goods. It is also involved in the investment business; hotel investment and operation activities; and rendering of cargo and logistics services. The company was formerly known as Regal International Airport Group Company Limited and changed its name to Hainan Meilan International Airport Company Limited in November 2019. Hainan Meilan International Airport Company Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Haikou, the People's Republic of China. As of December 24, 2025, the company operates as a subsidiary of Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF) currently trades at $0.6500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.44, implying the stock looks roughly 54.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.28 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the $0.6500 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.3000, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.6600 (bear) to $2.40 (bull), the price of $0.6500 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hainan Meilan International Airport Company reported revenue of 2.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was −272M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $308M · P/S ratio 0.16 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0900 · Net margin −13.9% · Return on equity −7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% · Operating margin −21.0% · Revenue (TTM) 2.0B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 122%, HMCTF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.6600
Fair Value $1.44
Bull $2.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.5900
$1.28
$2.33
75
Growth DCF
$0.5700
$1.20
$2.07
74
Owner Earnings
$1.30
$2.44
$4.15
73
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.5900
$1.28
$2.33
75
Owner Earnings
$1.30
$2.44
$4.15
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.3400
$0.8700
$1.57
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.9300
$2.07
$3.48
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.4000
$0.9100
$1.64
62
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.7800
$1.70
$3.07
64
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.1800
$0.3200
$0.4400
65
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.1800
$0.3000
$0.3500
65
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
$1.31
$1.92
$2.53
65
EV/Revenue
$0.2100
$0.5300
$0.8500
49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.6000
$0.8000
$1.20
52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.5700
$1.20
$2.07
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.3400
$0.8700
$1.54
68
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
47/100
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Profitability
3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
46/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−95.1% (2020) → −12.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.7% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airports & Air Services · 51 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Airports & Air Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Airports & Air Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aena S.M.E., S.A AENA | €25.60 | €28.16 | +10% |
| Airports of Thailand Public Company AOT | 62.25 THB | 54.20 THB | −13% |
| GMR Airports Limited GMRINFRA | ₹97.57 | ₹22.29 | −77% |
| Shanghai International Airport Co 600009 | ¥22.46 | ¥24.71 | +10% |
| Auckland International Airport Limited AIA | A$6.87 | A$3.33 | −52% |
| Flughafen Zürich AG FHZN | CHF 196.40 | CHF 127.42 | −35% |
| Københavns Lufthavne A/S KBHL | kr 5,520 | kr 1,891 | −66% |
| Fraport AG FRA | €62.00 | €35.02 | −44% |
| Flughafen Wien Aktiengesellschaft, FLU | €53.40 | €58.74 | +10% |
| SATS Ltd S58 | 3.83 SGD | 5.30 SGD | +38% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.44 versus a price of $0.6500, about +122% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HMCTF?
Our model-based fair value for Hainan Meilan International Airport Company is $1.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.6500.
What is the quality score of HMCTF?
Hainan Meilan International Airport Company has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6600, optimistic scenario $2.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hainan Meilan International Airport Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.44, about +122% upside versus a price of $0.6500 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.6600, optimistic scenario $2.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
Hainan Meilan International Airport Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hainan Meilan International Airport Company would have to grow free cash flow by +9.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HMCTF use?
Our models discount Hainan Meilan International Airport Company at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hainan Meilan International Airport Company that is +9.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hainan Meilan International Airport Company grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +9.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (+9.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.52 %: that much free cash flow Hainan Meilan International Airport Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hainan Meilan International Airport Company it is $1.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.6500. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hainan Meilan International Airport Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HMCTF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.6500, fair value $1.44, a gap of about +122% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMCTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.6500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.44). For Hainan Meilan International Airport Company the two are $0.7900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hainan Meilan International Airport Company worth?
The market values Hainan Meilan International Airport Company at about $308M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.6500; our models calculate a fair value of $1.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMCTF?
Our models span a range for Hainan Meilan International Airport Company: cautious scenario $0.6600, base $1.44, optimistic $2.40 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.6500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −7.0%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMCTF from its 52-week high?
Hainan Meilan International Airport Company trades at $0.6500, about 54% below its 52-week high of $1.40 and at the low of $0.6500 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hainan Meilan International Airport Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Aena S.M.E., S.A, Airports of Thailand Public Company, GMR Airports Limited, Shanghai International Airport Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hainan Meilan International Airport Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.6500, calculated fair value $1.44 (+122%), Quality Score 47/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMCTF calculated?
We run Hainan Meilan International Airport Company through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hainan Meilan International Airport Company currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.6500. Our model-based fair value is $1.44, about +122% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hainan Meilan International Airport Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.6600 to $2.40). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
The market capitalisation of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company is $308M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company is 0.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
Earnings per share at Hainan Meilan International Airport Company are $−0.0900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
The net margin of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company is −13.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company is −7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
The operating margin of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company is −21.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
Revenue at Hainan Meilan International Airport Company is growing −9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF)?
Earnings per share at Hainan Meilan International Airport Company are growing +334% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hainan Meilan International Airport Company (HMCTF) carry?
The net debt of Hainan Meilan International Airport Company is 2.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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