Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $87.4B
Automatic Data Processing, Inc
ADP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +11.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($225.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $166.77 – $316.39 · fair‑value band $129.55 – $225.46 · the $273.51 price screens above the $177.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP) currently trades at $273.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $177.51, implying the stock looks roughly 35.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Automatic Data Processing, Inc generated revenue of $21.6B at a net margin of 20.1%. Revenue grew 7.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 71.2%. Net debt stands at $5.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $129.55 (bear case) to $225.46 (bull case); at $273.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -35%, ADP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($197.66) versus Asset-Based ($10.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). The Employer Services segment offers strategic, cloud-based platforms, and human resources (HR) outsourcing solutions.
Full company description
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). The Employer Services segment offers strategic, cloud-based platforms, and human resources (HR) outsourcing solutions. This segment's offerings include RUN Powered by ADP, a software platform for small business payroll, HR, and compliance; ADP Workforce Now, a HCM solution used across mid-sized and large businesses to manage employees; and ADP Lyric HCM, a solution for HR management, payroll, workforce management, talent, and data analytics. The PEO Services segment provides HR and employment administration outsourcing solutions under ADP TotalSource name to businesses through a co-employment model. The segment also provides guidance, user-friendly technology, comprehensive employee benefits, and a risk management, safety, and workers' compensation program. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Roseland, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Automatic Data Processing, Inc reported revenue of $20.6B in FY2025 versus $15.0B in FY2021, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was $4.1B in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.
ADP screens 35% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ADP Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend
- July Private-Sector Hiring Rises Less Than Projected, ADP Data Show Ahead of Key Jobs Report
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
| Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc 688111 | ¥223.50 | ¥67.52 | -70% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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