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Keyera Corp (KEYUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Keyera Corp $24.42, price $36.73, upside -33.5%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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KC
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Keyera Corp
KEYUF · USWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value $24.42 · Overvalued (−33.5%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +17.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.8% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!5.8% dividend yield · Payout strained
!Narrow moat 37/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.19 – $43.32 · fair‑value band $10.10 – $32.19 · the $36.73 price screens above the $24.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Keyera Corp. together with its subsidiaries, engages in the gathering and processing of natural gas; and the transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids and iso-octane in Canada and the United States. It operates through three segments: Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing.
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Keyera Corp. together with its subsidiaries, engages in the gathering and processing of natural gas; and the transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids and iso-octane in Canada and the United States. It operates through three segments: Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing. The Gathering and Processing segment owns and operates raw gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, which collects and process raw natural gas, remove waste products, and separate economic components, primarily natural gas liquids; and provides gas handling services and other ancillary services, such as NGL extraction, NGL handling and loading services, and condensate stabilization. The Liquids Infrastructure segment owns and operates a network of facilities, including underground NGL storage caverns, above-ground storage tanks, NGL fractionation facilities, NGL, and condensate pipelines, as well as rail and truck terminals for the processing, fractionation, storage and transportation of the by-products of natural gas processing, including NGLs such as ethane, propane, butane and condensate; and engages in the liquids blending activities. The Marketing segment offers propane, butane, condensate, and iso-octane, as well as natural gas and crude oil. The company was formerly known as Keyera Facilities Income Fund and changed its name to Keyera Corp. in January 2011. Keyera Corp. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Keyera Corp (KEYUF) currently trades at $36.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.42, 33.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $25.11 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the $36.73 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.61, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.10 (bear) to $32.19 (bull), the price of $36.73 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Keyera Corp reported revenue of C$6.9B in FY2025 versus C$5.0B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$432M in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $11.0B · P/E ratio 65.6 · P/S ratio 4.14 · EPS (TTM) $0.5600 · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −34%, KEYUF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.10
Fair Value $24.42
Bull $32.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$7.10
$8.74
$12.02
76
EPV
$7.60
$10.35
$12.76
74
FCF DCF
$17.67
$36.82
$89.91
72
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$17.67
$36.82
$89.91
72
Owner Earnings
$18.92
$53.05
$123.41
69
5Y Revenue Exit
$9.35
$23.89
$49.72
67
5Y EBITDA Exit
$8.09
$21.12
$42.70
69
5Y P/E Exit
$6.53
$19.22
$34.87
66
10Y Revenue Exit
$11.19
$28.91
$51.52
63
10Y EBITDA Exit
$10.88
$26.58
$53.37
63
10Y P/E Exit
$9.79
$23.70
$45.94
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$7.31
$49.32
$69.12
63
Lynch FV
$14.46
$20.65
$26.85
61
PEG = 1.0
$14.46
$20.65
$26.85
57
EPV
$7.60
$10.35
$12.76
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$11.10
$23.08
$36.61
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$11.10
$19.46
$24.22
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$11.29
$15.06
$18.82
63
P/S Multiple
$13.71
$18.29
$22.86
58
P/B Multiple
$9.29
$12.38
$15.48
55
EV/EBIT
$6.64
$11.82
$17.01
63
EV/EBITDA
$4.61
$9.12
$13.63
64
EV/Revenue
$5.40
$11.54
$17.68
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.44
$4.61
$6.88
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$16.55
$41.94
$89.48
72
Rev-Margin DCF
$9.35
$25.11
$48.25
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$7.10
$8.74
$12.02
76
ROIC Compounder
$8.26
$15.46
$22.17
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$17.11
$24.44
$31.78
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
46/100
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Profitability
35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
25
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
54
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
76
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.2% vs 4.6%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+24.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.4% a year for the price and +21.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+31.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+27.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+24.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+21.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+17.9%
KEYUF screens overvalued: fair value 34% below the price. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
- Keyera Corp's Dividend Analysis
- Keyera slides after cutting guidance on pipeline disruption, facility repairs
- Keyera Lowers Marketing Margin Guidance Amid Line 5 Disruption
- Keyera Announces 2026 Marketing Guidance Update and Provides Operational Update
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Inc ENB | $46.97 | $36.91 | −21% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc WMB | $68.98 | $11.72 | −83% |
| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $36.65 | $24.66 | −33% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $20.10 | $15.29 | −24% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $30.63 | $28.16 | −8% |
| TC Energy Corporation TRP | $58.78 | $24.51 | −58% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $277.84 | $65.24 | −77% |
| MPLX LP owns and MPLX | $57.66 | $70.77 | +23% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $88.62 | $80.15 | −10% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $267.29 | $294.02 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Keyera Corp (KEYUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.42 versus a price of $36.73, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KEYUF?
Our model-based fair value for Keyera Corp is $24.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.73.
What is the quality score of KEYUF?
Keyera Corp has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.10, optimistic scenario $32.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Keyera Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.42, about −34% upside versus a price of $36.73 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.10, optimistic scenario $32.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
Keyera Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$6.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Keyera Corp pay a dividend?
Keyera Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Keyera Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +15.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KEYUF use?
Our models discount Keyera Corp at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Keyera Corp that is +15.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Keyera Corp (KEYUF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Keyera Corp grew +17.9 % a year. The price currently implies +15.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Keyera Corp (KEYUF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Keyera Corp (+15.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.10 %: that much free cash flow Keyera Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Keyera Corp it is $24.42 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $36.73. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Keyera Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, KEYUF trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.73, fair value $24.42, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KEYUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.42). For Keyera Corp the two are $12.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Keyera Corp worth?
The market values Keyera Corp at about $11.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $36.73; our models calculate a fair value of $24.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KEYUF?
Our models span a range for Keyera Corp: cautious scenario $10.10, base $24.42, optimistic $32.19 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $36.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KEYUF?
Keyera Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 65.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 4.0, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 16.0.
What is the PEG ratio of KEYUF?
The PEG ratio of Keyera Corp is 1.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Keyera Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 2.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KEYUF from its 52-week high?
Keyera Corp trades at $36.73, about 15% below its 52-week high of $43.32 and 32% above the low of $27.91 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Keyera Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Keyera Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $36.73, calculated fair value $24.42 (−34%), Quality Score 46/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KEYUF calculated?
We run Keyera Corp through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $24.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Keyera Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $36.73. Our model-based fair value is $24.42, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Keyera Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($10.10 to $32.19). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Keyera Corp (KEYUF) come from?
Earnings per share at Keyera Corp grew +5.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin −3.0 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Keyera Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
The market capitalisation of Keyera Corp is $11.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Keyera Corp is 4.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
Earnings per share at Keyera Corp are $0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 65.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
The dividend yield of Keyera Corp is 5.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
The net margin of Keyera Corp is 6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Keyera Corp is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Keyera Corp is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
The operating margin of Keyera Corp is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
Revenue at Keyera Corp is growing −26.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Keyera Corp (KEYUF)?
Earnings per share at Keyera Corp are growing +3.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Keyera Corp (KEYUF) carry?
The net debt of Keyera Corp is C$4.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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