TC Energy Corporation (TRP) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $70.1B
TC Energy Corporation
TRP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 18 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −7.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($47.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.50 – $70.59 · fair‑value band $32.07 – $47.12 · the $63.90 price screens above the $47.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
TC Energy Corporation (TRP) currently trades at $63.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.12, implying the stock looks roughly 26.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, TC Energy Corporation generated revenue of $15.5B at a net margin of 22.2%. Revenue grew 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.3%. Net debt stands at $60.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $32.07 (bear case) to $47.12 (bull case); at $63.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -26%, TRP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 18 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($61.17) versus Economic Profit ($4.62). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines; U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines; Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines; and Power and Energy Solutions.
Full company description
TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines; U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines; Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines; and Power and Energy Solutions. The company builds and operates a network of 94,171 kilometers of natural gas pipelines, which transports natural gas from supply basins to local distribution companies, power generation plants, industrial facilities, interconnecting pipelines, LNG export terminals, and other businesses. It also has regulated natural gas storage facilities with a total working gas capacity of 532 billion cubic feet. In addition, the company owns or has interests in power generation facilities with approximately 4,650 megawatts; and owns and operates approximately 118 billion cubic feet of non-regulated natural gas storage facilities in Alberta, Ontario, Québec, and New Brunswick. The company was formerly known as TransCanada Corporation and changed its name to TC Energy Corporation in May 2019. TC Energy Corporation was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TC Energy Corporation reported revenue of $15.2B in FY2025 versus $13.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $3.5B in FY2025, compounding +15.8%/yr from FY2021.
TRP screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- TC Energy Corp (TRP) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth and Robust ...
- TC Energy tops Q2 earnings estimates. What it has planned to meet data center demands.
- TC Energy (TRP) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
- TC Energy reports strong second quarter 2026 operating and financial results
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Midstream · 86 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Inc ENB | $56.46 | $47.20 | -16% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc WMB | $73.38 | $12.03 | -84% |
| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $38.31 | $24.74 | -35% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $32.54 | $11.12 | -66% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $19.91 | $17.69 | -11% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $93.52 | $64.05 | -32% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $273.35 | $79.61 | -71% |
| MPLX LP owns and MPLX | $57.17 | $37.05 | -35% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $255.83 | $211.18 | -17% |
| Venture Global, Inc VG | $13.80 | $14.42 | +4% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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