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Data-driven stock valuation

Williams Companies Inc (WMB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Williams Companies Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Energy · US · Market cap $89.7B · ISIN US9694571004

At a glance

WC Williams Companies Inc logo Williams Companies Inc WMB · US
Price$74.15
Fair Value$11.73
Upside−84.2% ⚠
Quality51/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 532% above our fair value of $11.73.

As of Sep 5, 2026, the fair value of Williams Companies Inc is $11.73 per share against a price of $74.15, so the fair value sits 84% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 23.1% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
·2.73% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/15)
✓Wide moat 75/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range $6.16 to $17.43

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price +3.3% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($6.16 to $17.43). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$78.82 $19.00 Fair Value $11.73 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.00 – $78.82 · fair‑value band $6.16 – $17.43 · the $74.15 price screens above the $11.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Williams Companies Inc (WMB) currently trades at $74.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.73, implying the stock looks roughly 532.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $25.93 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $74.15 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $4.09, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Williams Companies Inc generated revenue of $12.1B at a net margin of 23.1%. Revenue grew 9.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.7%. Net debt stands at $29.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Scenario range: $6.16 (bear) to $17.43 (bull), the price of $74.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −84%, WMB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1747 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($0.8600 to $37.30). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $6.48 $19.66 72
EPV $5.31 $9.91 $13.94 71
5Y P/E Exit n/a $4.09 $14.76 68
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $6.48 $19.66 72
5Y P/E Exit n/a $4.09 $14.76 68
10Y EBITDA Exit n/a $0.8600 $12.52 65
10Y P/E Exit n/a n/a $8.91 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $14.56 $37.30 $48.54 65
PEG = 1.0 $6.98 $9.98 $12.97 57
EPV $5.31 $9.91 $13.94 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple $22.48 $29.97 $37.46 63
P/S Multiple $8.79 $11.73 $14.66 58
P/B Multiple $14.14 $18.85 $23.56 55
EV/EBIT $4.71 $13.70 $22.70 61
EV/EBITDA $2.55 $10.82 $19.10 60
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.24 $7.02 $10.47 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $13.97 $18.50 $74.59 64
ROIC Compounder $5.31 $9.91 $16.59 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $18.15 $25.93 $33.70 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($25.93) versus DCF Models ($4.09). Highest evidence: 5Y EBITDA Exit (72).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 32.5
P/S ratio 7.12 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $2.28 price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.5
Dividend yield 2.7% payout 88.8%
Net margin 21.9% FY2025
Return on equity 19.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 33.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $12.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.0% 3y avg +2.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +25.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.0B FY2025
Net debt $29.3B FY2025 · ≈ 29.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 11
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 74
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

The Williams Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy infrastructure company primarily in the United States. It operates through Transmission, Power & Gulf, Northeast G&P, West, and Gas & NGL Marketing Services segments.

Full company description

The Williams Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy infrastructure company primarily in the United States. It operates through Transmission, Power & Gulf, Northeast G&P, West, and Gas & NGL Marketing Services segments. The Transmission, Power & Gulf segment comprises Transco, NWP, and Mountain West interstate natural gas pipelines, and their related natural gas storage facilities, as well as natural gas gathering and processing; and crude oil production handling and transportation assets in the Gulf Coast region. The Northeast G&P segment engages in the midstream gathering, processing, and fractionation activities in the Marcellus Shale region primarily in Pennsylvania and New York, and the Utica Shale region of eastern Ohio. The West segment consists of gas gathering, processing, and treating operations in the Rocky Mountain region of Colorado and Wyoming, the Barnett Shale region of north-central Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale region of South Texas, the Haynesville Shale region of northwest Louisiana, the Mid-Continent region that includes the Anadarko and Permian basins, and the DJ Basin of Colorado; and operates natural gas liquid (NGL) fractionation and storage assets in central Kansas near Conway. The Gas & NGL Marketing Services segment provides wholesale marketing, trading, storage, and transportation of natural gas for natural gas utilities, municipalities, power generators, and producers; asset management services; and transports and markets NGLs. The company owns and operates approximately 32,000 miles of pipelines. The Williams Companies, Inc. was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Williams Companies Inc reported revenue of $12.0B in FY2025 versus $10.6B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was $2.6B in FY2025, compounding +14.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$12.0B
Latest YoY
+13.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+15.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+12.5%
Dividend yield2.7%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 25.1% vs 10Y −2.7%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28.5% (2020) → 36.8% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop178% (2010) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue +3.0%/yr
FY21 $10.6B
FY22 $11.0B
FY23 $10.9B
FY24 $10.5B
FY25 $12.0B
Net income +14.6%/yr
FY21 $1.5B
FY22 $2.0B
FY23 $3.2B
FY24 $2.2B
FY25 $2.6B

WMB screens 532% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →

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Williams Companies Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Williams Companies Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WMB

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Midstream · 89 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −84% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 23% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 34% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.13× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 32.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 7.01× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 7.41× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 89.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 17.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.30× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Williams Companies Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+28.6 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+9.1 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price1.11 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.3 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE45 · sector 44
PAST79 · sector 42
HEALTH0 · sector 54
DIVIDEND55 · sector 80

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Enbridge Inc ENB $50.72 $35.83 −29%
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD $38.94 $20.94 −46%
TC Energy Corporation TRP C$88.72 C$24.53 −72%
Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI $31.60 $10.92 −65%
Energy Transfer LP, ET $21.31 $11.45 −46%
MPLX LP owns and MPLX $59.25 $36.42 −39%
ONEOK, Inc OKE $95.69 $58.62 −39%
Targa Resources Corp TRGP $286.91 $79.61 −72%
Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG $292.00 $199.99 −32%
Venture Global, Inc VG $13.72 $14.00 +2%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Williams Companies Inc (WMB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.73 versus a price of $74.15, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WMB?
Our model-based fair value for Williams Companies Inc is $11.73 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $74.15.
What is the quality score of WMB?
Williams Companies Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Williams Companies Inc (WMB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.73 (as of Sep 5, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.16, optimistic scenario $17.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Williams Companies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.73, about −84% upside versus a price of $74.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.16, optimistic scenario $17.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Williams Companies Inc (WMB)?
Williams Companies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of WMB?
The net profit margin of Williams Companies Inc is about 23.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 23.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Williams Companies Inc pay a dividend?
Williams Companies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Williams Companies Inc (WMB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Williams Companies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +28.6 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.3 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.1 % per year. As of Sep 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WMB use?
Our models discount Williams Companies Inc at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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