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Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Mayne Pharma Group $5.18, price $2.00, upside +159.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Mayne Pharma Group
MAYNF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $5.18 · Strongly undervalued (+159.0%)
!Quality 52/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -20.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.40 – $26.62 · fair‑value band $3.55 – $8.06 · the $2.00 price screens below the $5.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Mayne Pharma Group Limited, a specialty pharmaceutical company, focuses on the commercialization of women's health and dermatology pharmaceuticals in Australia, New Zealand, the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Women's Health, Dermatology, and International.
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Mayne Pharma Group Limited, a specialty pharmaceutical company, focuses on the commercialization of women's health and dermatology pharmaceuticals in Australia, New Zealand, the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Women's Health, Dermatology, and International. The company provides oral drug delivery systems, as well as contract development and manufacturing services to third-party customers. It also distributes specialty pharmaceutical products in the dermatology, women's health, and infectious disease therapeutic areas. The company was formerly known as Halcygen Pharmaceuticals Limited and changed its name to Mayne Pharma Group Limited in November 2010. Mayne Pharma Group Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Salisbury South, Australia.
Stock analysis
Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF) currently trades at $2.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.18, implying the stock looks roughly 61.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $4.90 per share, and 9 of the 10 models we run sit above the $2.00 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.8200, and 1 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.55 (bear) to $8.06 (bull), the price of $2.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Mayne Pharma Group reported revenue of A$408M in FY2025 versus A$400M in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was −A$93.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $158M · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7400 · Net margin −23.0% · Return on equity −20.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.5% · Operating margin −10.2% · Revenue (TTM) A$407M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at 159%, MAYNF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.55
Fair Value $5.18
Bull $8.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$3.57
$4.90
$8.80
74
Growth DCF
$3.36
$5.27
$8.26
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.70
$2.19
$3.17
69
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$3.57
$4.90
$8.80
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.70
$2.19
$3.17
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$4.28
$7.39
$13.49
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$2.38
$3.62
$4.04
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$4.00
$8.35
$15.87
61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
$4.66
$6.14
$7.61
67
EV/Revenue
$0.6500
$0.8200
$0.9900
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.59
$2.12
$3.17
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$3.36
$5.27
$8.26
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.82
$2.48
$3.90
68
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
52/100
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Profitability
13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
82
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
16
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
30
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
91
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.8% (2020) → −5.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.1% a year for the price.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McKesson Corporation MCK | $864.82 | $822.74 | −5% |
| Cencora, Inc COR | $309.78 | $215.20 | −31% |
| Cardinal Health, Inc CAH | $220.29 | $162.84 | −26% |
| Henry Schein, Inc HSIC | $86.37 | $76.77 | −11% |
| Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 | ¥16.02 | ¥42.67 | +166% |
| Sinopharm Group 1099 | HK$14.88 | HK$55.77 | +275% |
| Galenica AG GALE | CHF 82.55 | CHF 61.79 | −25% |
| Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 | ¥19.39 | ¥26.64 | +37% |
| Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 | ¥5.05 | ¥9.84 | +95% |
| China National Medicines Corporation 600511 | ¥25.80 | ¥58.47 | +127% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.18 versus a price of $2.00, about +159% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MAYNF?
Our model-based fair value for Mayne Pharma Group is $5.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.00.
What is the quality score of MAYNF?
Mayne Pharma Group has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.55, optimistic scenario $8.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mayne Pharma Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.18, about +159% upside versus a price of $2.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.55, optimistic scenario $8.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
Mayne Pharma Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$407M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mayne Pharma Group would have to grow free cash flow by +26.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MAYNF use?
Our models discount Mayne Pharma Group at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mayne Pharma Group that is +26.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mayne Pharma Group grew -2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +26.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mayne Pharma Group (+26.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.28 %: that much free cash flow Mayne Pharma Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mayne Pharma Group it is $5.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.00. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mayne Pharma Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MAYNF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.00, fair value $5.18, a gap of about +159% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MAYNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.18). For Mayne Pharma Group the two are $3.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mayne Pharma Group worth?
The market values Mayne Pharma Group at about $158M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.00; our models calculate a fair value of $5.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MAYNF?
Our models span a range for Mayne Pharma Group: cautious scenario $3.55, base $5.18, optimistic $8.06 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is MAYNF from its 52-week high?
Mayne Pharma Group trades at $2.00, about 50% below its 52-week high of $4.00 and 43% above the low of $1.40 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mayne Pharma Group?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mayne Pharma Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.00, calculated fair value $5.18 (+159%), Quality Score 52/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MAYNF calculated?
We run Mayne Pharma Group through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mayne Pharma Group currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.00. Our model-based fair value is $5.18, about +159% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mayne Pharma Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.55). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($3.55 to $8.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Mayne Pharma Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
The market capitalisation of Mayne Pharma Group is $158M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mayne Pharma Group is 0.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
Earnings per share at Mayne Pharma Group are $−0.7400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
The net margin of Mayne Pharma Group is −23.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mayne Pharma Group is −20.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mayne Pharma Group is −8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
The operating margin of Mayne Pharma Group is −10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF)?
Revenue at Mayne Pharma Group is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Mayne Pharma Group (MAYNF) hold?
Mayne Pharma Group holds more cash than debt, A$18.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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