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Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Sigma Healthcare Limited $0.78, price $1.93, upside -59.5%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Sigma Healthcare Limited
SIGGF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $0.7800 · Strongly overvalued (−59.5%)
✓Quality 65/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +12.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!0.7% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Moderate moat 59/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3856 – $2.87 · fair‑value band $0.4700 – $1.03 · the $1.93 price screens above the $0.7800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Sigma Healthcare Limited operates as a retail pharmacy franchisor and pharmaceutical wholesale and distributor to community pharmacies primarily in Australia. It offers support services to a network of franchised retail pharmacies; third and fourth party logistics services to pharmaceutical manufacturers and other supplier partners; and health services.
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Sigma Healthcare Limited operates as a retail pharmacy franchisor and pharmaceutical wholesale and distributor to community pharmacies primarily in Australia. It offers support services to a network of franchised retail pharmacies; third and fourth party logistics services to pharmaceutical manufacturers and other supplier partners; and health services. The company operates stores under the Chemist Warehouse, Amcal, and Discount Drug stores brand names. It also offers products through online. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Clayton, Australia.
Stock analysis
Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF) currently trades at $1.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7800, 59.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.8600 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $1.93 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.3100, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $0.4700 (bear) to $1.03 (bull), the price of $1.93 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sigma Healthcare Limited reported revenue of A$6.0B in FY2025 versus A$3.5B in FY2021, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$530M in FY2025, compounding +72.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $27.1B · P/E ratio 48.1 · P/S ratio 4.25 · EPS (TTM) $0.0400 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 19.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at −59%, SIGGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.4700
Fair Value $0.7800
Bull $1.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0270 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.4400
$0.8600
$1.91
74
Growth DCF
$0.4300
$0.9300
$1.73
74
EPV
$0.2500
$0.3000
$0.3500
71
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.4400
$0.8600
$1.91
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.3600
$0.7200
$1.23
70
5Y P/E Exit
$0.4500
$0.9200
$1.50
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.3700
$0.7300
$1.35
63
10Y P/E Exit
$0.4400
$0.8900
$1.59
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.2200
$1.30
$1.80
63
Lynch FV
$0.3700
$0.5300
$0.6800
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.3700
$0.5300
$0.6800
57
EPV
$0.2500
$0.3000
$0.3500
71
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.5300
$0.7000
$0.8800
63
P/S Multiple
$0.4100
$0.5400
$0.6800
58
P/B Multiple
$0.1700
$0.2300
$0.2800
55
EV/EBIT
$0.4600
$0.6300
$0.8000
66
EV/Revenue
$0.3100
$0.4700
$0.6300
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0300
$0.0300
$0.0500
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.4300
$0.9300
$1.73
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.3600
$0.7000
$1.19
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.1900
$0.3100
$0.8500
66
ROIC Compounder
$0.3100
$0.4400
$0.6200
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.5500
$0.7800
$1.02
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
65/100
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Profitability
88
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+77.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+61.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+61.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 11%
2025 sits 14,588% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+35.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.6% a year for the price and +31.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+41.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+41.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+36.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+31.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+26.9%
SIGGF screens overvalued: fair value 59% below the price. Compare with McKesson Corporation →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (27 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIGGF) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Surges 15.5% to $10. ...
- Sigma Exits $10 Billion Boots Deal Talks
- Sigma Healthcare pulls out of Boots takeover talks
- Is Sigma Healthcare (ASX:SIG) Now Fairly Priced After Recent Share Price Weakness?
Compare Sigma Healthcare Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 78 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McKesson Corporation MCK | $864.82 | $822.74 | −5% |
| Cencora, Inc COR | $309.78 | $215.20 | −31% |
| Cardinal Health, Inc CAH | $220.29 | $162.84 | −26% |
| Henry Schein, Inc HSIC | $86.37 | $76.77 | −11% |
| Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 | ¥16.02 | ¥42.67 | +166% |
| Sinopharm Group 1099 | HK$14.88 | HK$55.77 | +275% |
| Galenica AG GALE | CHF 82.55 | CHF 61.79 | −25% |
| Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 | ¥19.39 | ¥26.64 | +37% |
| Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 | ¥5.05 | ¥9.84 | +95% |
| China National Medicines Corporation 600511 | ¥25.80 | ¥58.47 | +127% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7800 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.93, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SIGGF?
Our model-based fair value for Sigma Healthcare Limited is $0.7800 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $1.93.
What is the quality score of SIGGF?
Sigma Healthcare Limited has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.7800 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4700, optimistic scenario $1.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sigma Healthcare Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.7800, about −59% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4700, optimistic scenario $1.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
Sigma Healthcare Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$9.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Sigma Healthcare Limited pay a dividend?
Sigma Healthcare Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.68% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sigma Healthcare Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.7 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SIGGF use?
Our models discount Sigma Healthcare Limited at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sigma Healthcare Limited that is -7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sigma Healthcare Limited grew +12.7 % a year. The price currently implies -7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sigma Healthcare Limited (-7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.99 %: that much free cash flow Sigma Healthcare Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sigma Healthcare Limited it is $0.7800 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $1.93. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sigma Healthcare Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, SIGGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.93, fair value $0.7800, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIGGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.7800). For Sigma Healthcare Limited the two are $1.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sigma Healthcare Limited worth?
The market values Sigma Healthcare Limited at about $27.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $1.93; our models calculate a fair value of $0.7800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIGGF?
Our models span a range for Sigma Healthcare Limited: cautious scenario $0.4700, base $0.7800, optimistic $1.03 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $1.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SIGGF?
Sigma Healthcare Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.1 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.7800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 32.3, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 30.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sigma Healthcare Limited (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 19.5%, debt of 1.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIGGF from its 52-week high?
Sigma Healthcare Limited trades at $1.93, about 18% below its 52-week high of $2.35 and 7% above the low of $1.80 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.7800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sigma Healthcare Limited?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sigma Healthcare Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $1.93, calculated fair value $0.7800 (−59%), Quality Score 65/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIGGF calculated?
We run Sigma Healthcare Limited through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.7800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sigma Healthcare Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $1.93. Our model-based fair value is $0.7800, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sigma Healthcare Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.4700 to $1.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sigma Healthcare Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
The market capitalisation of Sigma Healthcare Limited is $27.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sigma Healthcare Limited is 4.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
Earnings per share at Sigma Healthcare Limited are $0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
The dividend yield of Sigma Healthcare Limited is 0.7% (payout 32.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
The net margin of Sigma Healthcare Limited is 8.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sigma Healthcare Limited is 19.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sigma Healthcare Limited is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
The operating margin of Sigma Healthcare Limited is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
Revenue at Sigma Healthcare Limited is growing +181% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF)?
Earnings per share at Sigma Healthcare Limited are growing +6.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sigma Healthcare Limited (SIGGF) carry?
The net debt of Sigma Healthcare Limited is A$752M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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