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Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Mitchells & Butlers plc $6.62, price $3.76, upside +76.1%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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MB
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Mitchells & Butlers plc
MBPFF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $6.62 · Strongly undervalued (+76.1%)
!Quality 52/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +12.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 39/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0002 – $5.18 · fair‑value band $4.26 – $9.29 · the $3.76 price screens below the $6.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Mitchells & Butlers plc operates and manages restaurants, pubs, and bars in the United Kingdom and Germany.
Show more
Mitchells & Butlers plc operates and manages restaurants, pubs, and bars in the United Kingdom and Germany. The company offers its products and services under the Alex, All Bar One, Browns, Castle, Ego, Ember Inns, Harvester, High Street, Innkeeper's Collection, Miller & Carter, Nicholson's, O'Neill's, Pesto, Premium Country Pubs, Sizzling Pubs, Stonehouse Pizza & Carvery, Toby Carvery, and Vintage Inns brand names. It also engages in leisure retailing; property leasing, management, and development; service, finance, and management activities; non-trading; trading ownership; and healthcare trustee. The company was founded in 1898 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom. Mitchells & Butlers plc operates as a subsidiary of Odyzean Limited.
Stock analysis
Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF) currently trades at $3.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.62, implying the stock looks roughly 43.2% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $7.11 per share, and 22 of the 23 models we run sit above the $3.76 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.21, and 1 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.26 (bear) to $9.29 (bull), the price of $3.76 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mitchells & Butlers plc reported revenue of £2.7B in FY2025 versus £1.1B in FY2021, a compound +26.3%/yr. Reported net income was £177M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.3B · P/E ratio 9.4 · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) $0.4000 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 76%, MBPFF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.26
Fair Value $6.62
Bull $9.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4000 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4.87
$7.63
$11.43
80
Growth DCF
$5.02
$7.55
$10.87
78
Owner Earnings
$3.59
$5.79
$8.84
75
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4.87
$7.63
$11.43
80
Owner Earnings
$3.59
$5.79
$8.84
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$3.85
$6.43
$9.59
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$5.98
$10.25
$15.04
74
5Y P/E Exit
$4.44
$7.48
$10.52
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$4.04
$6.39
$9.29
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$5.49
$8.93
$13.20
68
10Y P/E Exit
$4.55
$7.09
$9.95
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.68
$6.60
$8.54
65
PEG = 1.0
$1.19
$1.70
$2.21
57
EPV
$3.92
$4.79
$5.53
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$6.51
$8.68
$10.85
63
P/S Multiple
$5.03
$6.71
$8.38
58
P/B Multiple
$5.03
$6.71
$8.38
55
EV/EBIT
$8.40
$11.71
$15.02
66
EV/EBITDA
$7.80
$10.91
$14.02
67
EV/Revenue
$3.55
$5.73
$7.90
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.14
$4.21
$6.28
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$5.02
$7.55
$10.87
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$3.85
$6.51
$9.40
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.95
$5.09
$5.49
71
ROIC Compounder
$3.92
$4.79
$5.53
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$4.97
$7.11
$9.24
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
52/100
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Profitability
33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
57
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
79
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +2.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.4% vs 2.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 118% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.9% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.7%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 205 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $233.60 | $162.81 | −30% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $93.96 | $35.83 | −62% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.32 | $35.55 | +10% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $138.28 | $76.78 | −44% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | $71.48 | $73.34 | +3% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $199.75 | $175.20 | −12% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $40.80 | $50.76 | +24% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $158.45 | $128.55 | −19% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $301.81 | $233.22 | −23% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $37.89 | $10.27 | −73% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.62 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $3.76, about +76% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MBPFF?
Our model-based fair value for Mitchells & Butlers plc is $6.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $3.76.
What is the quality score of MBPFF?
Mitchells & Butlers plc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.26, optimistic scenario $9.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mitchells & Butlers plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.62, about +76% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $3.76 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.26, optimistic scenario $9.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
Mitchells & Butlers plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Mitchells & Butlers plc pay a dividend?
Mitchells & Butlers plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mitchells & Butlers plc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MBPFF use?
Our models discount Mitchells & Butlers plc at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mitchells & Butlers plc that is +3.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mitchells & Butlers plc grew +12.9 % a year. The price currently implies +3.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mitchells & Butlers plc (+3.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.65 %: that much free cash flow Mitchells & Butlers plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mitchells & Butlers plc it is $6.62 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.76. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mitchells & Butlers plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MBPFF trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.76, fair value $6.62, a gap of about +76% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MBPFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.62). For Mitchells & Butlers plc the two are $2.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mitchells & Butlers plc worth?
The market values Mitchells & Butlers plc at about $2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.76; our models calculate a fair value of $6.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MBPFF?
Our models span a range for Mitchells & Butlers plc: cautious scenario $4.26, base $6.62, optimistic $9.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MBPFF?
Mitchells & Butlers plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mitchells & Butlers plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.6%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MBPFF from its 52-week high?
Mitchells & Butlers plc trades at $3.76, at its 52-week high of $3.77 and 16% above the low of $3.25 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mitchells & Butlers plc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mitchells & Butlers plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.76, calculated fair value $6.62 (+76%), Quality Score 52/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MBPFF calculated?
We run Mitchells & Butlers plc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mitchells & Butlers plc currently trades 43 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $3.76. Our model-based fair value is $6.62, about +76% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mitchells & Butlers plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.26). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($4.26 to $9.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF) come from?
Earnings per share at Mitchells & Butlers plc grew +1.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.2 %, EBIT margin −0.5 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mitchells & Butlers plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
The market capitalisation of Mitchells & Butlers plc is $2.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mitchells & Butlers plc is 0.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
Earnings per share at Mitchells & Butlers plc are $0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
The dividend yield of Mitchells & Butlers plc is 2.6% (payout 24.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
The net margin of Mitchells & Butlers plc is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mitchells & Butlers plc is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mitchells & Butlers plc is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
The operating margin of Mitchells & Butlers plc is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
Revenue at Mitchells & Butlers plc is growing +2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF)?
Earnings per share at Mitchells & Butlers plc are growing +6.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mitchells & Butlers plc (MBPFF) carry?
The net debt of Mitchells & Butlers plc is £1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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