Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $120B
Starbucks Corporation
SBUX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $35.83 to $56.43 (+57.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 46% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($70.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($34.48 to $70.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $63.18 – $112.18 · fair‑value band $34.48 – $70.55 · the $105.16 price screens above the $56.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) currently trades at $105.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.43, implying the stock looks roughly 46.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Starbucks Corporation generated revenue of $38.5B at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue grew 8.8% year over year. Net debt stands at $23.4B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 71.9. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $34.48 (bear case) to $70.55 (bull case); at $105.16, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -46%, SBUX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($39.15) versus Economic Profit ($15.59). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development.
Full company description
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, complementary food, packaged coffees, single-serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve brands. Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Starbucks Corporation reported revenue of $37.2B in FY2025 versus $29.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025, compounding −18.5%/yr from FY2021.
SBUX screens 46% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Starbucks Is Bouncing Back. Here's Why Dutch Bros Is Still the Better Long-Term Buy.
- Starbucks Revives Fan Favorite as Traffic Slips
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Amazon, Marvell, Starbucks, Preformed Line Products and Crown Crafts
- Top Research Reports for Amazon, Marvell & Starbucks
Peer Group
Restaurants · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $68.85 | $10.69 | -84% |
Compare Starbucks Corporation with another stock
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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