Yum! Brands, Inc (YUM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $45.1B
Yum! Brands, Inc
YUM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 19 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from $59.42 to $59.66 (+0.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −9.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($108.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($37.07 to $108.26). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $97.97 – $167.49 · fair‑value band $37.07 – $108.26 · the $152.28 price screens above the $59.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Yum! Brands, Inc (YUM) currently trades at $152.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.66, implying the stock looks roughly 60.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Yum! Brands, Inc generated revenue of $8.5B at a net margin of 20.5%. Revenue grew 15.2% year over year. Net debt stands at $11.2B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 23.9. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $37.07 (bear case) to $108.26 (bull case); at $152.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -61%, YUM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 19 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($88.55) versus Growth DCF ($35.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Yum! Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises traditional and non-traditional quick service restaurants in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: KFC Division, Taco Bell Division, Pizza Hut Division, and Habit Burger & Grill Division.
Full company description
Yum! Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises traditional and non-traditional quick service restaurants in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: KFC Division, Taco Bell Division, Pizza Hut Division, and Habit Burger & Grill Division. It also operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and Habit Burger & Grill brands, which specialize in chicken, Mexican-style food and pizza categories, made-to-order chargrilled burgers, sandwiches, and other products. The company was formerly known as TRICON Global Restaurants, Inc. and changed its name to Yum! Brands, Inc. in May 2002. Yum! Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Yum! Brands, Inc reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $6.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.6B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.
YUM screens 61% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- YUM's $2.7 Billion Pizza Hut Exit Could Unlock the Next Growth Phase
- YUM Drops 10.4% in a Month: Is This Sell-Off a Buying Opportunity?
Peer Group
Restaurants · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $68.85 | $10.69 | -84% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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