McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what McDonald’s Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
- Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
- Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
- Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
At a glance
McDonald’s Corporation
MCD · US
A solid business, but trading 72% above our fair value of $149.03.
As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of McDonald’s Corporation is $149.03 per share against a price of $255.69, so the fair value sits 42% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated today
Share price −6.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($232.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($98.03 to $232.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $201.21 – $336.88 · fair‑value band $98.03 – $232.95 · the $255.69 price screens above the $149.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
Analysis
McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) currently trades at $255.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $149.03, implying the stock looks roughly 71.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $209.05 per share, and 2 of the 21 models we run sit above the $255.69 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $21.65, and 19 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, McDonald’s Corporation generated revenue of $27.4B at a net margin of 31.6%. Revenue grew 9.4% year over year. Net debt stands at $54.0B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 21.1. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026
Scenario range: $98.03 (bear) to $232.95 (bull), the price of $255.69 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −42%, MCD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.34 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($209.05) versus Growth DCF ($21.65). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
Notify me when MCD reaches fair value
Put MCD on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
McDonald’s Corporation reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $23.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was $8.6B in FY2025, compounding +3.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.1 % · buybacks/dilution +2.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MCD screens 72% overvalued. Compare with Starbucks Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- McDonald’s Is Near a 52-Week Low. Is This the Contrarian Buy of 2026?
- McDonald's (MCD) Down 4.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
Peer Group
Restaurants · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must McDonald’s Corporation deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $104.47 | $35.83 | −66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $38.03 | $17.92 | −53% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $153.31 | $58.17 | −62% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | −65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.86 | $173.68 | −21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.60 | $54.27 | +24% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | −47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | −75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $341.08 | $227.31 | −33% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $69.47 | $10.69 | −85% |
Compare McDonald’s Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of MCD?
What is the quality score of MCD?
What is the price target for McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
What is the McDonald’s Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
What is the revenue of McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
What is the net profit margin of MCD?
Does McDonald’s Corporation pay a dividend?
What growth is priced into McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)?
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MCD use?
Watch McDonald’s Corporation in the live analysis
One click puts McDonald’s Corporation on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.