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NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of NXT Energy Solutions Inc $0.24, price $0.25, upside -4.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
NXT Energy Solutions Inc
NSFDF · USLow PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.
·Fair value $0.2400 · Fairly valued (−4.0%)
!Quality 50/100
!Weak Growth
!Loss-making · -14.2% net margin (FY2025)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 19/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0700 – $0.6600 · fair‑value band $0.1400 – $0.3900 · the $0.2500 price screens above the $0.2400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
NXT Energy Solutions Inc. operates as a technology company in Canada and internationally. The company offers geophysical services to the upstream oil and gas industry using its gravity-based Stress Field Detection (SFD) remote-sensing survey system.
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NXT Energy Solutions Inc. operates as a technology company in Canada and internationally. The company offers geophysical services to the upstream oil and gas industry using its gravity-based Stress Field Detection (SFD) remote-sensing survey system. Its SFD technology also provides information on areas conducive to fluid entrapment in the sedimentary column; surveys for seismic programs; prospect leads in large, underexplored areas for pre-seismic applications; seismic prospects based on reservoir potentials for post-seismic applications; and onshore and offshore exploration. The company was formerly known as Energy Exploration Technologies Inc. and changed its name to NXT Energy Solutions Inc. in September 2008. NXT Energy Solutions Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF) currently trades at $0.2500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2400, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $0.4400 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the $0.2500 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.0600, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.1400 (bear) to $0.3900 (bull), the price of $0.2500 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
NXT Energy Solutions Inc reported revenue of C$16.4M in FY2025 versus C$3.1M in FY2021, a compound +51.1%/yr. Reported net income was −C$2.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $38.2M · P/S ratio 9.57 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1000 · Net margin −14.2% · Return on equity −120% · Return on assets (EBIT) −24.3% · Operating margin −2,315% · Free cash flow C$1.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −4%, NSFDF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1400
Fair Value $0.2400
Bull $0.3900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.1600
$0.2400
$0.4800
74
EPV
$0.2300
$0.2600
$0.2900
74
Growth DCF
$0.1500
$0.2800
$0.4700
73
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.1600
$0.2400
$0.4800
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.1200
$0.2000
$0.3500
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.1800
$0.3100
$0.5700
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.1300
$0.2600
$0.3400
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.1800
$0.3800
$0.7400
62
Earnings-Based
EPV
$0.2300
$0.2600
$0.2900
74
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$0.2100
$0.2700
$0.3400
66
EV/EBITDA
$0.1800
$0.2400
$0.2900
67
EV/Revenue
$0.1000
$0.1300
$0.1700
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0400
$0.0600
$0.0900
53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.1500
$0.2800
$0.4700
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.1300
$0.2200
$0.4000
67
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$0.2900
$0.4400
$0.6300
68
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
50/100
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Profitability
28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
19
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
15/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4,449.7% (2020) → 26.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.1% a year for the price.
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Compare NXT Energy Solutions Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 184 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLB N.V SLB | $48.72 | $28.87 | −41% |
| Baker Hughes Company BKR | $55.62 | $32.38 | −42% |
| TechnipFMC plc FTI | $70.99 | $27.88 | −61% |
| Halliburton Company HAL | $31.88 | $21.56 | −32% |
| Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 | ¥116.02 | ¥127.62 | +10% |
| Subsea 7 S.A SUBC | kr 324.80 | kr 251.18 | −23% |
| Saipem SpA SPM | €4.30 | €2.72 | −37% |
| Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT | €210.00 | €231.00 | +10% |
| China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 | ¥12.12 | ¥13.04 | +8% |
| NOV Inc NOV | $18.73 | $8.59 | −54% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2400 versus a price of $0.2500, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NSFDF?
Our model-based fair value for NXT Energy Solutions Inc is $0.2400 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.2500.
What is the quality score of NSFDF?
NXT Energy Solutions Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2400 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1400, optimistic scenario $0.3900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NXT Energy Solutions Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2400, about −4% upside versus a price of $0.2500 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.1400, optimistic scenario $0.3900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NXT Energy Solutions Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +24.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +160.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NSFDF use?
Our models discount NXT Energy Solutions Inc at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NXT Energy Solutions Inc that is +24.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NXT Energy Solutions Inc grew +160.4 % a year. The price currently implies +24.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NXT Energy Solutions Inc (+24.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.54 %: that much free cash flow NXT Energy Solutions Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NXT Energy Solutions Inc it is $0.2400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.2500. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NXT Energy Solutions Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NSFDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.2500, fair value $0.2400, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NSFDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2400). For NXT Energy Solutions Inc the two are $0.0100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NXT Energy Solutions Inc worth?
The market values NXT Energy Solutions Inc at about $38.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.2500; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NSFDF?
Our models span a range for NXT Energy Solutions Inc: cautious scenario $0.1400, base $0.2400, optimistic $0.3900 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.2500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for NXT Energy Solutions Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −120.4%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NSFDF from its 52-week high?
NXT Energy Solutions Inc trades at $0.2500, about 38% below its 52-week high of $0.4000 and 56% above the low of $0.1605 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NXT Energy Solutions Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NXT Energy Solutions Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.2500, calculated fair value $0.2400 (−4%), Quality Score 50/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NSFDF calculated?
We run NXT Energy Solutions Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. NXT Energy Solutions Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.2500. Our model-based fair value is $0.2400, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NXT Energy Solutions Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.1400 to $0.3900). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of NXT Energy Solutions Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
The market capitalisation of NXT Energy Solutions Inc is $38.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NXT Energy Solutions Inc is 9.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
Earnings per share at NXT Energy Solutions Inc are $−0.1000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
The net margin of NXT Energy Solutions Inc is −14.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NXT Energy Solutions Inc is −120% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NXT Energy Solutions Inc is −24.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF)?
The operating margin of NXT Energy Solutions Inc is −2,315% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much net debt does NXT Energy Solutions Inc (NSFDF) carry?
The net debt of NXT Energy Solutions Inc is C$9.0M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 8.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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