Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ovid Therapeutics Inc $0.36, price $2.38, upside -84.9%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2550 – $4.04 · fair‑value band $0.2400 – $0.4500 · the $2.38 price screens above the $0.3600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Ovid Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of small molecule medicines for brain disorders including epilepsies and seizure-related neurological disorders in the United States.
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Ovid Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of small molecule medicines for brain disorders including epilepsies and seizure-related neurological disorders in the United States. The company is developing OV329, a GABA-AT inhibitor which is in Phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of adult and infant drug-resistant epilepsies; and OV4071, a first-in-human oral potassium-chloride cotransporter 2 direct activator which is in Phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of psychosis associated with parkinson's disease, lewy body dementia, and acute schizophrenia. It has license and collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca AB, H. Lundbeck A/S, Northwestern University, and Graviton, as well as Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID) currently trades at $2.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3600, 84.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.2400 (bear) to $0.4500 (bull), the price of $2.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ovid Therapeutics Inc reported revenue of $7.3M in FY2025 versus $208M in FY2021, a compound −56.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$17.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $432M · EPS (TTM) $−0.2100 · Return on equity −26.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −21.7% · Operating margin −2,101% · Revenue growth (YoY) −88.3% · Free cash flow −$38.3M · Net debt $266K.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −85%, OVID screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2400Fair Value $0.3600Bull $0.4500
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1,181.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+69.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−645.4% (2020) → −585.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 576 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−84.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−19.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth844.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.31× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)60.67× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3600 versus a price of $2.38, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OVID?
Our model-based fair value for Ovid Therapeutics Inc is $0.3600 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.38.
What is the quality score of OVID?
Ovid Therapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3600 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2400, optimistic scenario $0.4500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ovid Therapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3600, about −85% upside versus a price of $2.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2400, optimistic scenario $0.4500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ovid Therapeutics Inc it is $0.3600 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $2.38. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ovid Therapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, OVID trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.38, fair value $0.3600, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OVID?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3600). For Ovid Therapeutics Inc the two are $2.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ovid Therapeutics Inc worth?
The market values Ovid Therapeutics Inc at about $432M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $2.38; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OVID?
Our models span a range for Ovid Therapeutics Inc: cautious scenario $0.2400, base $0.3600, optimistic $0.4500 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $2.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ovid Therapeutics Inc (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −18.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OVID from its 52-week high?
Ovid Therapeutics Inc trades at $2.38, about 20% below its 52-week high of $2.96 and 98% above the low of $1.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ovid Therapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ovid Therapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $2.38, calculated fair value $0.3600 (−85%), Quality Score 56/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OVID calculated?
We run Ovid Therapeutics Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ovid Therapeutics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.38. Our model-based fair value is $0.3600, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ovid Therapeutics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4500). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.2400 to $0.4500) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ovid Therapeutics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID)?
The market capitalisation of Ovid Therapeutics Inc is $432M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID)?
Earnings per share at Ovid Therapeutics Inc are $−0.2100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ovid Therapeutics Inc is −26.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ovid Therapeutics Inc is −21.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID)?
The operating margin of Ovid Therapeutics Inc is −2,101% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID)?
Revenue at Ovid Therapeutics Inc is growing −88.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +69.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID) generate?
The free cash flow of Ovid Therapeutics Inc is −$38.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ovid Therapeutics Inc (OVID) carry?
The net debt of Ovid Therapeutics Inc is $266K (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026