Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shimizu Corporation $10.83, price $15.11, upside -28.3%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.53 – $18.50 · fair‑value band $9.00 – $14.44 · the $15.11 price screens above the $10.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Shimizu Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction, development, engineering, and life cycle valuation businesses in Japan and internationally.
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Shimizu Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction, development, engineering, and life cycle valuation businesses in Japan and internationally. The company offers plans, designs, builds, repairs, manages, operates, and maintains offices, plants, schools, hospitals, and other buildings; designs, builds, and renovates tunnels, bridges, dams, urban infrastructure, and energy and other public facilities; provides construction for manufacturing facilities, high-rise buildings, hospitals, bridges, subways, and other projects; and develops and rents real estate properties. It also provides engineering, procurement, and construction services in solar and wind power projects, environmental clean-up engineering, turn-key order fulfillment of plants, and ICT systems and engineering projects. In addition, the company offers facility operation and management services; and generates power from wooden biomass. Further, the company engages in the lease and sale of construction equipment; provision of interior finishing and rebar works; insurance agency, security, and travel agency businesses; money lending activities; and rental of various tower cranes, crawler cranes, and other construction machinery and equipment. Additionally, it involved in road construction and paving work; development, sale, and leasing of computer software; planning and management of sports facilities; landscaping of parks, green spaces, and gardens, etc. Shimizu Corporation was founded in 1804 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF) currently trades at $15.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.83, 28.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $18.90 per share, and 6 of the 15 models we run sit above the $15.11 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.26, and 9 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.00 (bear) to $14.44 (bull), the price of $15.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Shimizu Corporation reported revenue of ¥2.1T in FY2026 versus ¥1.5T in FY2022, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥127B in FY2026, compounding +27.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $10.2B · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) $1.16 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −28%, SHMUF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.00Fair Value $10.83Bull $14.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.47/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+16.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.2% vs 9.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
2026 sits 183% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−20.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.4% · Above median
Return on assets2.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shimizu Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHMUF
Frequently asked questions
Is Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.83 versus the last price from Sep 23, 2026 of $15.11, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHMUF?
Our model-based fair value for Shimizu Corporation is $10.83 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 23, 2026): $15.11.
What is the quality score of SHMUF?
Shimizu Corporation has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.83 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.00, optimistic scenario $14.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shimizu Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.83, about −28% upside versus the last price from Sep 23, 2026 of $15.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.00, optimistic scenario $14.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
Shimizu Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.1T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Shimizu Corporation pay a dividend?
Shimizu Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shimizu Corporation it is $10.83 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $15.11. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shimizu Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, SHMUF trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.11, fair value $10.83, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHMUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.83). For Shimizu Corporation the two are $4.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shimizu Corporation worth?
The market values Shimizu Corporation at about $10.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $15.11; our models calculate a fair value of $10.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHMUF?
Our models span a range for Shimizu Corporation: cautious scenario $9.00, base $10.83, optimistic $14.44 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $15.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHMUF?
Shimizu Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 11.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shimizu Corporation (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 13.4%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Shimizu Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shimizu Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $15.11, calculated fair value $10.83 (−28%), Quality Score 56/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHMUF calculated?
We run Shimizu Corporation through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Shimizu Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 23, 2026 and stands at $15.11. Our model-based fair value is $10.83, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shimizu Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF) come from?
Earnings per share at Shimizu Corporation grew +5.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.9 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shimizu Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
The market capitalisation of Shimizu Corporation is $10.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shimizu Corporation is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
Earnings per share at Shimizu Corporation are $1.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
The dividend yield of Shimizu Corporation is 3.3% (payout 42.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
The net margin of Shimizu Corporation is 6.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shimizu Corporation is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shimizu Corporation is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
The operating margin of Shimizu Corporation is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
Revenue at Shimizu Corporation is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF)?
Earnings per share at Shimizu Corporation are growing +81.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF) generate?
The free cash flow of Shimizu Corporation is −¥57.4B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shimizu Corporation (SHMUF) carry?
The net debt of Shimizu Corporation is ¥331B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 28, 2026