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GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited $0.04, price $0.08, upside -52.0%, quality 26 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Utilities · US · Home Hong Kong

GN GCL New Energy Holdings Limited logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

GCL New Energy Holdings Limited

SMTLF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.0400 · Strongly overvalued (−52.0%)
!Quality 26/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −27.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -126.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 12 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$0.9080 $0.0250 Fair Value $0.0400 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0250 – $0.9080 · fair‑value band $0.0200 – $0.0600 · the $0.0833 price screens above the $0.0400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

GCL New Energy Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, develops, constructs, operates, and manages solar power plants in the People's Republic of China, the United States, and internationally. It also engages in the sale of electricity and liquified natural gas and related products.

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GCL New Energy Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, develops, constructs, operates, and manages solar power plants in the People's Republic of China, the United States, and internationally. It also engages in the sale of electricity and liquified natural gas and related products. In addition, the company is involved in investment in petroleum infrastructure projects, as well as provision of related technical and consultancy services. The company was formerly known as Same Time Holdings Limited and changed its name to GCL New Energy Holdings Limited in May 2014. GCL New Energy Holdings Limited was founded in 1982 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF) currently trades at $0.0833, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0400, 52.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.0500 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $0.0833 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.0300, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.0200 (bear) to $0.0600 (bull), the price of $0.0833 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

GCL New Energy Holdings Limited reported revenue of 1.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −22.3%/yr. Reported net income was −1.1B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $208M · P/S ratio 0.20 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1300 · Net margin −107% · Return on equity −25.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.3% · Operating margin −18.1% · Revenue (TTM) $1.1B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 130% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −52%, SMTLF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.0200 Fair Value $0.0400 Bull $0.0600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $0.0300 $0.0500 $0.0700 78
Growth DCF $0.0300 $0.0500 $0.0700 76
Rev-Margin DCF $0.0200 $0.0500 $0.0700 69
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.0300 $0.0500 $0.0700 78
5Y Revenue Exit $0.0200 $0.0400 $0.0800 66
10Y Revenue Exit $0.0300 $0.0400 $0.0500 66
Multiples
EV/Revenue $0.0200 $0.0400 $0.0700 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.0200 $0.0300 $0.0400 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.0300 $0.0500 $0.0700 76
Rev-Margin DCF $0.0200 $0.0500 $0.0700 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 26/100

Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 22
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
44.7% (2020) → −38.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

SMTLF screens overvalued: fair value 52% below the price. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 196 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −31.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −126.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −18.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −33.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.76× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.46× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.20× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 2.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 9
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)12 · sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 45

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥28.36 ¥31.20 +10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 139.45 kr 31.40 −77%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.75 ¥4.45 −54%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €23.42 €14.06 −40%
VERBUND AG VER €63.20 €56.60 −10%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,297 ₹169.61 −87%
SDIC Power Holdings 600886 ¥14.86 ¥16.35 +10%
EDP Renewables, S.A EDPR €12.99 €3.53 −73%
China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co 600905 ¥3.61 ¥2.40 −34%
Public Power Corporation PPC €22.96 €7.44 −68%

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GCL New Energy Holdings Limited · Fair Value
$0.0400 −52%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GCL New Energy Holdings Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMTLF

Frequently asked questions

Is GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0400 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.0833, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMTLF?
Our model-based fair value for GCL New Energy Holdings Limited is $0.0400 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.0833.
What is the quality score of SMTLF?
GCL New Energy Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0400 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0200, optimistic scenario $0.0600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GCL New Energy Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0400, about −52% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.0833 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0200, optimistic scenario $0.0600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
GCL New Energy Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GCL New Energy Holdings Limited it is $0.0400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0833. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GCL New Energy Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SMTLF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0833, fair value $0.0400, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMTLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0833); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0400). For GCL New Energy Holdings Limited the two are $0.0433 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GCL New Energy Holdings Limited worth?
The market values GCL New Energy Holdings Limited at about $208M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0833; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMTLF?
Our models span a range for GCL New Energy Holdings Limited: cautious scenario $0.0200, base $0.0400, optimistic $0.0600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.0833). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −25.6%, debt of 1.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMTLF from its 52-week high?
GCL New Energy Holdings Limited trades at $0.0833, about 29% below its 52-week high of $0.1173 and 130% above the low of $0.0362 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GCL New Energy Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Fortum Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GCL New Energy Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0833, calculated fair value $0.0400 (−52%), Quality Score 26/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMTLF calculated?
We run GCL New Energy Holdings Limited through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. GCL New Energy Holdings Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.0833. Our model-based fair value is $0.0400, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GCL New Energy Holdings Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.0200 to $0.0600). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
The market capitalisation of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited is $208M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited is 0.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
Earnings per share at GCL New Energy Holdings Limited are $−0.1300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
The net margin of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited is −107% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited is −25.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited is −1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
The operating margin of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited is −18.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
Revenue at GCL New Energy Holdings Limited is growing −33.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF)?
Earnings per share at GCL New Energy Holdings Limited are growing +15.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF) generate?
The free cash flow of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited is $71.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does GCL New Energy Holdings Limited (SMTLF) carry?
The net debt of GCL New Energy Holdings Limited is $552M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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