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VERBUND AG (OEWA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what VERBUND AG is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
VERBUND AG
OEWA · XETRAOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value €53.92 · Overvalued (−11%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +19.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.29% dividend yield
!Moderate moat 62/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €53.86 – €93.51 · fair‑value band €29.15 – €86.05 · the €60.80 price screens above the €53.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
VERBUND AG, together with its subsidiaries, generates, trades, and sells electricity in Austria, Germany, France, Romania, Spain, and Luxembourg. It operates through Hydro, New Renewables, Sales, Grid, and All Other segments.
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VERBUND AG, together with its subsidiaries, generates, trades, and sells electricity in Austria, Germany, France, Romania, Spain, and Luxembourg. It operates through Hydro, New Renewables, Sales, Grid, and All Other segments. The company engages in the generation of hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic systems, and flexible storage systems; trading and sale activities, and business activities related to battery storage systems; electricity and thermal generation; and holds equity interests. It also offers electricity, gas, e-mobility, and large-scale photovoltaic systems. The company serves participants in energy exchange markets, traders, electric utilities, industrial companies, and household and commercial customers. VERBUND AG was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Vienna, Austria.
Stock analysis
VERBUND AG (OEWA) currently trades at €60.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €53.92, implying the stock looks roughly 12.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €72.88 per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the €60.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €19.94, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €29.15 (bear) to €86.05 (bull), the price of €60.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
VERBUND AG reported revenue of €8.0B in FY2025 versus €4.8B in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.5B in FY2025, compounding +14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €21.1B · P/E ratio 15.3 · P/S ratio 2.84 · EPS (TTM) €3.93 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 18.6% · Return on equity 13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −11%, OEWA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €29.15
Fair Value €53.92
Bull €86.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.40 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€13.53
€23.56
€38.86
75
Growth DCF
€13.84
€22.71
€35.44
73
Owner Earnings
€19.93
€33.53
€54.28
72
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€13.53
€23.56
€38.86
75
Owner Earnings
€19.93
€33.53
€54.28
72
5Y Revenue Exit
€16.86
€30.72
€48.49
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
€35.76
€66.08
€101.76
70
5Y P/E Exit
€33.52
€61.88
€91.83
66
10Y Revenue Exit
€14.75
€27.12
€43.87
62
10Y EBITDA Exit
€27.53
€51.68
€84.54
63
10Y P/E Exit
€26.10
€48.76
€76.96
59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€29.15
€90.79
€120.76
60
Lynch FV
€19.75
€28.21
€36.67
57
PEG = 1.0
€19.75
€28.21
€36.67
53
EPV
€41.15
€48.75
€55.40
72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€25.71
€53.45
€84.80
62
DDM Multi-Stage
€25.71
€42.52
€56.10
62
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€54.66
€72.88
€91.10
61
P/S Multiple
€25.95
€34.60
€43.25
56
P/B Multiple
€54.66
€72.88
€91.10
53
EV/EBIT
€58.60
€79.61
€100.63
64
EV/EBITDA
€54.07
€73.58
€93.09
66
EV/Revenue
€19.76
€30.14
€40.52
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€14.88
€19.94
€29.77
52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€13.84
€22.71
€35.44
73
Rev-Margin DCF
€16.86
€30.62
€46.39
68
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€29.35
€36.16
€72.03
68
ROIC Compounder
€43.61
€56.78
€72.93
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€46.33
€66.19
€86.05
64
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
53/100
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Profitability
47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
46
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19% vs 22%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 26%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−7.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.5%
OEWA screens 13% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Compare VERBUND AG with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 207 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥28.46 | ¥31.31 | +10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 133.85 | kr 31.40 | −77% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.73 | ¥5.41 | −44% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,274 | ₹169.61 | −87% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.63 | −10% |
| BEP BEP | $29.09 | $70.40 | +142% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$42.13 | C$42.46 | +1% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥15.18 | ¥7.55 | −50% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €24.43 | €13.55 | −45% |
| SDIC Power Holdings 600886 | ¥14.42 | ¥16.63 | +15% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is VERBUND AG (OEWA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €53.92 versus a price of €60.80, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OEWA?
Our model-based fair value for VERBUND AG is €53.92 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €60.80.
What is the quality score of OEWA?
VERBUND AG has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €53.92 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €29.15, optimistic scenario €86.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VERBUND AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €53.92, about −11% upside versus a price of €60.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €29.15, optimistic scenario €86.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
VERBUND AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €7.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does VERBUND AG pay a dividend?
VERBUND AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, VERBUND AG would have to grow free cash flow by +17.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.9 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OEWA use?
Our models discount VERBUND AG at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For VERBUND AG that is +17.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has VERBUND AG (OEWA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at VERBUND AG grew +19.9 % a year. The price currently implies +17.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of VERBUND AG (OEWA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into VERBUND AG (+17.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.60 %: that much free cash flow VERBUND AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VERBUND AG it is €53.92 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of €60.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VERBUND AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, OEWA trades above its calculated fair value: price €60.80, fair value €53.92, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OEWA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€60.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€53.92). For VERBUND AG the two are €6.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VERBUND AG worth?
The market values VERBUND AG at about €21.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is €60.80; our models calculate a fair value of €53.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OEWA?
Our models span a range for VERBUND AG: cautious scenario €29.15, base €53.92, optimistic €86.05 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price €60.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OEWA?
VERBUND AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €53.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
Balance-sheet figures for VERBUND AG (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 13.5%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OEWA from its 52-week high?
VERBUND AG trades at €60.80, about 9% below its 52-week high of €66.66 and 12% above the low of €54.43 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €53.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VERBUND AG?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VERBUND AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price €60.80, calculated fair value €53.92 (−11%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OEWA calculated?
We run VERBUND AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €53.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. VERBUND AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was €60.80. Our model-based fair value is €53.92, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VERBUND AG right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€29.15 to €86.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of VERBUND AG (OEWA) come from?
Earnings per share at VERBUND AG grew +25.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.5 %, EBIT margin +7.1 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of VERBUND AG
How large is the market capitalisation of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
The market capitalisation of VERBUND AG is €21.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of VERBUND AG is 2.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
Earnings per share at VERBUND AG are €3.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
The dividend yield of VERBUND AG is 3.3% (payout 50.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
The net margin of VERBUND AG is 18.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VERBUND AG is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VERBUND AG is 12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
The operating margin of VERBUND AG is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
Revenue at VERBUND AG is growing −15.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at VERBUND AG (OEWA)?
Earnings per share at VERBUND AG are growing −32.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does VERBUND AG (OEWA) carry?
The net debt of VERBUND AG is €2.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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