Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Unipol Gruppo SpA $11.82, price $16.50, upside -28.4%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7109 – $18.45 · fair‑value band $8.21 – $14.77 · the $16.50 price screens above the $11.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services primarily in Italy. The company operates through Non-Life Insurance Business, Life Insurance Business, Banking Associates Business, and Other Business segments.
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Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services primarily in Italy. The company operates through Non-Life Insurance Business, Life Insurance Business, Banking Associates Business, and Other Business segments. It offers risk cover solutions for vehicles, sports craft, and travel; home and condominiums; work related to businesses, traders, professionals, and legal protection; accident and health protection; and investments and welfare. The company also provides life insurance products; bancassurance; and reinsurance services. In addition, it is involved in the operation and management of real estate properties; operation of hotels, residences, and resorts through leases, franchises, and management; agricultural, wine, healthcare facilities, and port facilities; and supplies of anti-theft systems, as well as provision of vehicle and glass repair services; mobile payments, telematics, and response services to assistance request; and telemedicine, home care and prevention, physiotherapy, and social care services. Further, the company offers digital health platform; property services to homes and condominiums, and administrators and owners; and electronic payment and e-money services. It distributes its products through direct sales; broker; agency, banking, and craftsmen network; and franchise administrators. The company was formerly known as Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. and changed its name to Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. in January 2025. Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Bologna, Italy.
Stock analysis
Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR (UFGSY) currently trades at $16.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.82, 28.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $11.41 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $16.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.46, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.21 (bear) to $14.77 (bull), the price of $16.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR reported revenue of €13.7B in FY2025 versus €14.3B in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was €1.5B in FY2025, compounding +24.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $23.7B · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 1.30 · EPS (TTM) $1.16 · Dividend yield 6.8% · Net margin 10.8% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −28%, UFGSY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.21Fair Value $11.82Bull $14.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0302 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.8% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.9% vs 16.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.5% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (23 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 116 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UFGSY
Frequently asked questions
Is Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.82 versus a price of $16.50, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UFGSY?
Our model-based fair value for Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR is $11.82 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.50.
What is the quality score of UFGSY?
Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.82 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.21, optimistic scenario $14.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.82, about −28% upside versus a price of $16.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.21, optimistic scenario $14.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €10.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR pay a dividend?
Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.79% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -14.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.3 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UFGSY use?
Our models discount Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR that is -14.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR grew +0.3 % a year. The price currently implies -14.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR (-14.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.28 %: that much free cash flow Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR it is $11.82 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $16.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, UFGSY trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.50, fair value $11.82, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UFGSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.82). For Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR the two are $4.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR worth?
The market values Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR at about $23.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $16.50; our models calculate a fair value of $11.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UFGSY?
Our models span a range for Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR: cautious scenario $8.21, base $11.82, optimistic $14.77 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $16.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UFGSY?
Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UFGSY from its 52-week high?
Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR trades at $16.50, about 11% below its 52-week high of $18.45 and 63% above the low of $10.12 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $16.50, calculated fair value $11.82 (−28%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UFGSY calculated?
We run Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $16.50. Our model-based fair value is $11.82, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY) come from?
Earnings per share at Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR grew +13.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −8.2 %, EBIT margin +13.1 %, tax rate +5.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
The market capitalisation of Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR is $23.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR is 1.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
Earnings per share at Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR are $1.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
The dividend yield of Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR is 6.8% (payout 96.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
The net margin of Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR is 10.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
The operating margin of Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
Revenue at Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR is growing −2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY)?
Earnings per share at Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR are growing +12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Unipol Gruppo SpA (UFGSY) carry?
The net debt of Unipol Gruppo SpA ADR is €4.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026