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Universal Music Group (UMGNF) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · US · Market cap $38.3B

Price$20.66
Fair Value$17.42
Upside-15.7%
Quality95/100
Evidence: High Range $11.23 – $22.23

Fair value as of: Jun 25, 2026

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Analysis

Universal Music Group (UMGNF) currently trades at $20.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.42 — implying the stock looks roughly 15.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 95/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

About the company

Universal Music Group N.V. operates as a music company worldwide. The company operates through Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising & Other segments. Its Recorded Music segment discovers and develops recording artists, as well as licenses, markets, promotes, distributes, and sells their music across various formats and platforms; and engages in the live events, sponsorship, film, and television operations. The Music Publishing segment discovers and develops songwriters, as well as owns and administers the copyright for musical compositions used in recordings, public performances, and related uses, such as films and advertisements. Its Merchandising & Other segment produces and sells artist and other branded products through various sales channels, including fashion retail, concert touring, and online, as well as offers brand rights management services. Universal Music Group N.V. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Hilversum, the Netherlands.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Universal Music Group (UMGNF) undervalued?
As of Jun 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.42 versus a price of $20.66 — about −16% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.
What is the fair value of UMGNF?
Our 21-model fair value for Universal Music Group is $17.42 (as of Jun 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $20.66.
What is the quality score of UMGNF?
Universal Music Group has a Quality Score of 95/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.