TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
Communication Services · US · Market cap $37.1B · ISIN US87256C1018
At a glance
TGTKO Group Holdings, Inc.TKO · US
Price$191.08
Fair Value$40.59
Upside−78.8%
Quality43/100
Below-average quality, and trading another 371% above our fair value of $40.59.
As of Sep 5, 2026, the fair value of TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is $40.59 per share against a price of $191.08, so the fair value sits 79% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +37.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.5% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·1.41% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 27 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 28 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange $24.17 to $57.01
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +0.9% over the past month.
This is the short version. In the app for TKO Group Holdings, Inc.:
Watch TKO Group Holdings, Inc. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($57.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
A fairly wide model range ($24.17 to $57.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.93 – $223.19 · fair‑value band $24.17 – $57.01 · the $191.08 price screens above the $40.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) currently trades at $191.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.59, implying the stock looks roughly 370.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $106.65 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $191.08 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.91, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. generated revenue of $5.1B at a net margin of 4.5%. Revenue grew 25.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.7%. Net debt stands at $3.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Scenario range: $24.17 (bear) to $57.01 (bull), the price of $191.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −79%, TKO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence$15.03$15.44$15.1775
FCF DCF$85.61$143.26$326.8573
EPV$27.56$34.64$40.8372
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$85.61$143.26$326.8573
Owner Earnings$29.87$86.99$206.9167
5Y Revenue Exit$49.09$91.29$179.2268
5Y EBITDA Exit$63.27$119.97$231.0270
5Y P/E Exit$25.16$54.96$92.2167
10Y Revenue Exit$58.80$136.28$182.2165
10Y EBITDA Exit$71.20$166.83$330.3163
10Y P/E Exit$43.39$84.74$144.9161
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$6.85$47.76$67.0360
Lynch FV$19.09$27.27$35.4658
PEG = 1.0$19.09$27.27$35.4655
EPV$27.56$34.64$40.8372
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$30.32$63.05$100.0264
DDM Multi-Stage$30.32$53.16$66.1764
Multiples
P/E Multiple$16.62$22.16$27.7061
P/S Multiple$12.84$17.12$21.4056
P/B Multiple$12.84$17.12$21.4053
EV/EBIT$44.54$64.36$84.1864
EV/EBITDA$52.18$74.54$96.9165
EV/Revenue$30.18$49.50$68.8251
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$9.63$12.91$19.2652
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$79.64$160.96$325.3472
Rev-Margin DCF$50.63$106.65$214.0867
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence$15.03$15.44$15.1775
ROIC Compounder$36.59$57.27$75.3370
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$24.46$34.94$45.4266
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($106.65) versus Asset-Based ($12.91). Highest evidence: Residual Income (75).
Notify me when TKO reaches fair value
Put TKO on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio69.8as of Jul 12, 2026
P/S ratio2.88P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$2.64price ÷ EPS = P/E 69.8
Dividend yield1.4%payout 102%
Net margin4.1%FY2025
Return on equity6.7%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)7.6%avg 5y
Operating margin21.2%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$5.1BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+25.9%3y avg +60.7%
EPS growth (YoY)+63.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$1.2BFY2025
Net debt$3.2BFY2025 · ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality43/100
Of which business quality 47
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Profitability25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow96
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance0
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a sports and entertainment company. The company operates through three segments: UFC, WWE and IMG. The UFC segment distributes programming content; ticket sales and site fees associated with the business's global live events; partnerships and marketing; and consumer products licensing agreements of UFC-branded products.
Full company description
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a sports and entertainment company. The company operates through three segments: UFC, WWE and IMG. The UFC segment distributes programming content; ticket sales and site fees associated with the business's global live events; partnerships and marketing; and consumer products licensing agreements of UFC-branded products. The WWE segment consists of media rights fees associated with the distribution of its programming content; ticket sales and site fees associated with the business's global live events; partnerships and marketing; and consumer products licensing agreements of WWE-branded products. The IMG segment specializing in media rights management and sales, multi-channel content production and distribution, brand partnerships, strategic consulting, digital services, and event management. This segment also offers hospitality business, offering ticketing, curated guest experiences, live event production and travel management services. It is also involved in the merchandising of video games, apparel, equipment, trading cards, memorabilia, digital goods, and toys. In addition, the company engages in the sponsorships and advertising business, which offers sale of in-venue and in-broadcast advertising assets, content product integration, and digital impressions. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is based in New York, New York. TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is a subsidiary of WME Group, Inc.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +44.2%/yr. Reported net income was $195M in FY2025, compounding +2.4%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$4.7B
Latest YoY
+68.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+60.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+37.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−5.3%
Dividend yield1.4%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −8.7% vs 10Y 10.3%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21.4% (2020) → 20.3% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop95% (2024) · in USD
Revenue+44.2%/yr
FY21$1.1B
FY22$1.1B
FY23$1.7B
FY24$2.8B
FY25$4.7B
Net income+2.4%/yr
FY21$177M
FY22$387M
FY23−$35.2M
FY24$9.4M
FY25$195M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025)+4.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share+9.6 %
of which total revenue +20.7 % · buybacks/dilution −9.2 %
EBIT margin+13.4 %
Tax rate+0.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)−16.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−78% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.00× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)69.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B9.43× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.96× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF30.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA26.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.33× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must TKO Group Holdings, Inc. deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+12.1 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+37.2 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.9 %
FCF yield on price3.13 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.4 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 12
FUTURE100· sector 15
PAST27· sector 0
HEALTH50· sector 98
DIVIDEND28· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
Is TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.59 versus a price of $191.08, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TKO?
Our model-based fair value for TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is $40.59 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $191.08.
What is the quality score of TKO?
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.59 (as of Sep 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.17, optimistic scenario $57.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TKO Group Holdings, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.59, about −79% upside versus a price of $191.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $24.17, optimistic scenario $57.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO)?
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TKO?
The net profit margin of TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is about 4.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does TKO Group Holdings, Inc. pay a dividend?
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +12.1 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.4 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +37.2 % per year. As of Sep 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TKO use?
Our models discount TKO Group Holdings, Inc. at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TKO Group Holdings, Inc. it is $40.59 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026), against a price of $191.08. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TKO Group Holdings, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 5, 2026, TKO trades above its calculated fair value: price $191.08, fair value $40.59, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($191.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.59). For TKO Group Holdings, Inc. the two are $150.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TKO Group Holdings, Inc. worth?
The market values TKO Group Holdings, Inc. at about $37.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 5, 2026). Per share that is $191.08; our models calculate a fair value of $40.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKO?
Our models span a range for TKO Group Holdings, Inc.: cautious scenario $24.17, base $40.59, optimistic $57.01 per share (as of Sep 5, 2026, price $191.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKO?
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 69.8 (as of Sep 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.59 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 9.4, P/S 7.0, EV/EBITDA 26.5.
What is the PEG ratio of TKO?
The PEG ratio of TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is 1.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO)?
Balance-sheet figures for TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (as of Sep 5, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 1.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKO from its 52-week high?
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. trades at $191.08, about 15% below its 52-week high of $226.03 and 27% above the low of $150.54 (as of Sep 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TKO Group Holdings, Inc.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TKO Group Holdings, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 5, 2026: price $191.08, calculated fair value $40.59 (−79%), Quality Score 43/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKO calculated?
We run TKO Group Holdings, Inc. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $40.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Free · no account needed
Watch TKO Group Holdings, Inc. in the live analysis
One click puts TKO Group Holdings, Inc. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
TKO · US