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Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Yancoal Australia Ltd $3.96, price $4.00, upside -1.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Yancoal Australia Ltd
YACAF · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $3.96 · Fairly valued (−1.0%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!4.6% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Narrow moat 30/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2143 – $5.99 · fair‑value band $3.56 – $4.96 · the $4.00 price screens above the $3.96 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Yancoal Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of metallurgical and thermal coal in Australia, China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, India, Europe, Israel, Chile, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Bangladesh.
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Yancoal Australia Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of metallurgical and thermal coal in Australia, China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, India, Europe, Israel, Chile, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Bangladesh. The company owns a 98.75% interest in the Moolarben coal mine located in the Western Coalfields of New South Wales; an 83.6% interest in the Mount Thorley and Warkworth mines located in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales; and 51% interest in the Hunter Valley Operations located to the north-west of Singleton in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales. It also holds 100% interests in the Yarrabee mine located to the northeast of Blackwater in Central Queensland's Bowen Basin; Donaldson located in the Hunter Valley; Ashton mine located in the Upper Hunter Valley region of New South Wales; and Stratford Duralie mine located within the New South Wales Gloucester Basin, the Stratford Duralie. In addition, the company owns Middlemount mine located to the northeast of Emerald in Queensland's Bowen Basin; Premier Coal located in Collie, Western Australia; and Austar and Cameby Downs, and other interests located in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Sydney, Australia. Yancoal Australia Ltd is a subsidiary of Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF) currently trades at $4.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.96, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $5.78 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $4.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.52, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.56 (bear) to $4.96 (bull), the price of $4.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Yancoal Australia Ltd reported revenue of A$5.9B in FY2025 versus A$5.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$440M in FY2025, compounding −13.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.3B · P/E ratio 17.1 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) $0.2300 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −1%, YACAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.56
Fair Value $3.96
Bull $4.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0348 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4.17
$5.78
$8.14
78
Growth DCF
$4.21
$5.63
$7.58
77
Owner Earnings
$4.36
$6.08
$8.58
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4.17
$5.78
$8.14
78
Owner Earnings
$4.36
$6.08
$8.58
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$3.79
$5.30
$7.21
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$4.19
$6.05
$8.20
73
5Y P/E Exit
$3.59
$4.92
$6.31
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.83
$5.22
$7.06
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$4.15
$5.72
$7.79
67
10Y P/E Exit
$3.78
$4.96
$6.38
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.58
$4.91
$6.53
62
Lynch FV
$1.07
$1.52
$1.98
59
PEG = 1.0
$1.07
$1.52
$1.98
55
EPV
$3.14
$3.46
$3.74
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.56
$7.09
$10.73
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.56
$5.78
$7.48
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.43
$3.24
$4.06
63
P/S Multiple
$2.79
$3.72
$4.65
58
P/B Multiple
$2.95
$3.94
$4.92
55
EV/EBIT
$3.50
$4.31
$5.11
66
EV/EBITDA
$4.59
$5.75
$6.92
67
EV/Revenue
$3.70
$4.82
$5.93
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.38
$3.19
$4.76
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.21
$5.63
$7.58
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$3.79
$5.31
$7.07
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.62
$3.68
$3.87
74
ROIC Compounder
$3.14
$3.46
$3.74
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$2.12
$3.03
$3.94
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Profitability
33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
2
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.4% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 10%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 16.3%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.7% a year for the price and −1.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+20.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−3.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)−2.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)−2.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)−1.4%
Watch YACAF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (48 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Production and ...
- Yancoal’s Kestrel Deal Shifts Portfolio Toward Metallurgical Coal Exposure
- China-Backed Yancoal Australia to Buy Kestrel Coal Mine Stake For Up to $2.4 Billion
- Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF) Achieves Record Coal Production and Strong Financial Position
Compare Yancoal Australia Ltd with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Coal
Oil & gas
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10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥48.03 | ¥31.96 | −33% |
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| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥25.83 | ¥28.41 | +10% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥19.76 | ¥9.35 | −53% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥14.01 | ¥14.62 | +4% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹426.10 | ₹464.01 | +9% |
| PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN | 12,100 IDR | 4,698 IDR | −61% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥27.82 | ¥20.72 | −26% |
| PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA | 1,055 IDR | 243.05 IDR | −77% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥15.35 | ¥6.23 | −59% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.96 versus a price of $4.00, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of YACAF?
Our model-based fair value for Yancoal Australia Ltd is $3.96 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.00.
What is the quality score of YACAF?
Yancoal Australia Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.96 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.56, optimistic scenario $4.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yancoal Australia Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.96, about −1% upside versus a price of $4.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $3.56, optimistic scenario $4.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
Yancoal Australia Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$6.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Yancoal Australia Ltd pay a dividend?
Yancoal Australia Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.60% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yancoal Australia Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -1.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YACAF use?
Our models discount Yancoal Australia Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yancoal Australia Ltd that is -1.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yancoal Australia Ltd grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies -1.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yancoal Australia Ltd (-1.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.85 %: that much free cash flow Yancoal Australia Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yancoal Australia Ltd it is $3.96 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yancoal Australia Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, YACAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.00, fair value $3.96, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YACAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.96). For Yancoal Australia Ltd the two are $0.0400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yancoal Australia Ltd worth?
The market values Yancoal Australia Ltd at about $5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.00; our models calculate a fair value of $3.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YACAF?
Our models span a range for Yancoal Australia Ltd: cautious scenario $3.56, base $3.96, optimistic $4.96 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is YACAF from its 52-week high?
Yancoal Australia Ltd trades at $4.00, about 33% below its 52-week high of $5.99 and 24% above the low of $3.22 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yancoal Australia Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yancoal Australia Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.00, calculated fair value $3.96 (−1%), Quality Score 51/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YACAF calculated?
We run Yancoal Australia Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Yancoal Australia Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.00. Our model-based fair value is $3.96, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yancoal Australia Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Yancoal Australia Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
The market capitalisation of Yancoal Australia Ltd is $5.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 17.1. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 1.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
Earnings per share at Yancoal Australia Ltd are $0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
The dividend yield of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 4.6% (payout 80.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
The net margin of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 25.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
The operating margin of Yancoal Australia Ltd is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
Revenue at Yancoal Australia Ltd is growing −11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF)?
Earnings per share at Yancoal Australia Ltd are growing −65.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Yancoal Australia Ltd (YACAF) hold?
Yancoal Australia Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$2.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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