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Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cipher Mining Inc stock $4.73, price $6.53, that is 27.6% below the price, quality 16 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Technology US

CM Cipher Mining Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Cipher Mining Inc

CIFR · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 28% below what the stock costs today.

Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +319.3 %/yr in USD)
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $6.7M (6M)
Revenue last quarter 63% below a year ago.
Fair value $4.73 · Overvalued
Quality 16/100
Trails peers (0/8)
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
Estimate

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Recent election raises prospect of limits on ERCOT data center development
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$29.18 $0.4122 Fair Value $4.73 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.4122 – $29.18 · fair‑value band $3.55 – $5.92 · the $6.53 price screens above the $4.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Cipher Digital Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates industrial-scale data centers for bitcoin mining and high-performance compute (HPC) hosting in the United States.

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It develops HPC data center facilities across various sites for hyperscaler tenants; operates power at one bitcoin mining data center; and maintains a pipeline across various sites. The company was formerly known as Cipher Mining Inc. and change its name to Cipher Digital Inc. in February 2026.

The company was founded in 2021 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR) currently trades at $6.53, while our estimate is $4.73, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $3.55 (bear) to $5.92 (bull), the price of $6.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Cipher Mining Inc reported revenue of $224M in FY2025 versus $3.0M in FY2022, a compound +319.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$822M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.7B Mid · P/S ratio 17.3 · EPS (TTM) $−2.77 · Return on equity −154% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −233% · Revenue (TTM) $146M · Revenue growth (YoY) −62.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at −28%, CIFR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $3.55 Fair Value $4.73 Bull $5.92
Price $6.53 · Downside -27.6%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 16/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 1
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 49
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 4
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 4
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $6.7M and none bought.

  • SaleTyler PageChief Executive Officer, Director2× since Mar 25, 2026: 262,500 shares, avg. $21.10$5.5MJul 9, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleCary M GrossmanDirector4× since Nov 26, 2025: 90,000 shares, avg. $19.88$1.8MJun 18, 2026
  • SaleJames E NewsomeDirector3× since Dec 19, 2025: 74,082 shares, avg. $16.61$1.2MJun 16, 2026
  • SaleBitfury Group Ltd10% owner1,200,000 shares at $25.49$30.6MJun 4, 2026
  • SaleValerijs Vavilovs10% owner1,800,000 shares at $26.62$47.9MJun 3, 2026
  • SaleWesley Hastie WilliamsDirector4× since Nov 12, 2025: 111,372 shares, avg. $18.58$2.1MMay 21, 2026
  • SalePatrick Arthur KellyCo-President and COO6× since Nov 17, 2025: 216,853 shares, avg. $16.41$3.6MMay 12, 2026
  • SaleHolly Morrow EvansDirector2× since Nov 12, 2025: 31,269 shares, avg. $18.04$564,018Nov 26, 2025

Plus 24 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+319.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,232.2% (2022) → −150.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

CIFR screens overvalued: fair value 28% below the price. Compare with International Business Machines Corporation →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Note from the team Nov 11, 2026
AI conclusion: The company holds a narrow moat via its shift to long-term AI tenant leases with secured contracted revenue, while negative margins, cash flows and high leverage signal limited durable advantage.
Main risk: Potential new limits on data center development and power access in ERCOT threaten stable cash flows from on-site generation plans and locked-in contracts.
Cipher has shifted from bitcoin mining toward long-term leases of its data centers to AI tenants, securing billions in contracted revenue across its Texas campuses. Its pipeline and existing sites remain heavily concentrated in ERCOT, where the recent election has raised the prospect of new limits on data center development and power access. Will the on-site generation plans and locked-in contracts deliver stable cash flows despite the regulatory overhang, or will growth outside the state become essential?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 518 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 16 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −27.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −19.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −62.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.37× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.32× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 18.30× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH $65.00 $139.68 +115% vs CIFR
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹199.00 ₹287.86 +45% vs CIFR
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,154 ₹1,655 +43% vs CIFR
Accenture plc ACN $258.51 $332.90 +29% vs CIFR
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,475 ₹2,993 +21% vs CIFR
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,407 ₹1,602 +14% vs CIFR
Amadeus IT Group AMS €61.62 €66.57 +8% vs CIFR
CDW Corporation CDW $169.36 $165.54 −2% vs CIFR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc BR $192.96 $161.18 −16% vs CIFR
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $244.53 $185.39 −24% vs CIFR

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Cipher Mining Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cipher Mining Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CIFR

Frequently asked questions

Is Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $4.73 versus a price of $6.53, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CIFR?
Our estimate for Cipher Mining Inc is $4.73 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.53.
What is the quality score of CIFR?
Cipher Mining Inc has a Quality Score of 16/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $4.73 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $3.55, optimistic scenario $5.92. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Cipher Mining Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $4.73, about 28% lower versus a price of $6.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.55, optimistic scenario $5.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
Cipher Mining Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $146M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cipher Mining Inc it is $4.73 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $6.53.
Is Cipher Mining Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, CIFR trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.53, fair value $4.73, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CIFR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.73). For Cipher Mining Inc the two are $1.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cipher Mining Inc worth?
The market values Cipher Mining Inc at about $2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $6.53; our models calculate a fair value of $4.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CIFR?
Our models span a range for Cipher Mining Inc: cautious scenario $3.55, base $4.73, optimistic $5.92 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $6.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cipher Mining Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −153.9%, debt of 3.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 16/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CIFR from its 52-week high?
Cipher Mining Inc trades at $6.53, about 78% below its 52-week high of $29.18 and 18% above the low of $5.55 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cipher Mining Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cipher Mining Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $6.53, calculated fair value $4.73 (−28%), Quality Score 16/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Cipher Mining Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $6.53. Our estimate is $4.73, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cipher Mining Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (16/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Cipher Mining Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
The market capitalisation of Cipher Mining Inc is $2.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cipher Mining Inc is 17.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
Earnings per share at Cipher Mining Inc are $−2.77. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cipher Mining Inc is −154% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cipher Mining Inc is −9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
The operating margin of Cipher Mining Inc is −233% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
Revenue at Cipher Mining Inc is growing −62.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +319%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)?
Earnings per share at Cipher Mining Inc are growing +19.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR) generate?
The free cash flow of Cipher Mining Inc is −$696M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR) carry?
The net debt of Cipher Mining Inc is $2.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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