The Fair Value tab: 26 models, one range
Bear, base and bull, the model families, and why reading the range beats reading the middle.
You will learn
- What Bear, Fair Value and Bull stand for
- How the model table is grouped and what the evidence score means
- Why disagreeing models are information, not noise
Transcript
Lesson four: the Fair Value tab. This is where the number comes from, model by model.
At the top you see three values: Bear, Fair Value and Bull. Bear is the same models with cautious assumptions, Bull with optimistic ones. Together they give you a plausible range, not a single point.
Below, the table lists every model by family: discounted cash flow, earnings-based, dividend models, multiples and asset-based. Each row shows its own bear, base and bull value, and an evidence score on the right.
Tap any model name and you get its formula and assumptions in plain words. No black box.
When models disagree strongly, that itself is information. Dividend models give low values for a company that pays almost nothing, growth models give high values for a fast grower. The blend weighs them by evidence, so one odd model cannot drag the result.
If you take one thing from this lesson: read the range, not just the middle. A fair value of one hundred with a bear case of forty tells a different story than one with a bear case of ninety.