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STOCK COMPARISON

Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development vs Transurban: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development (0737) and Transurban (TCL) compare, as of Sep 30, 2026.

As of Sep 30, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development as the less overvalued of the two: Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development trades at HK$1.93 versus a fair value of HK$1.59 (−17.6%), while Transurban trades at A$13.24 versus A$4.92 (−62.8%).
Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development
0737.HK · HKD · Industrials
−17.6%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceHK$1.93
Fair ValueHK$1.59
Quality62/100
Transurban
TCL.AU · AUD · Industrials
−62.8%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceA$13.24
Fair ValueA$4.92
Quality57/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.

betterweakerfor reference, not scored

Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area DevelopmentTransurban
Valuation
11.4×P/E (TTM)112.9×
n/aForward P/E (FY2028)70.6×
n/aMedian P/E at FY-end (8 FY, ex one-offs where documented)171.6×
6.34×P/S (TTM)10.61×
1.09× · book value is mostly goodwillP/B5.35× · book value is mostly goodwill
10.8×EV/EBITDA25.3×
0.66×PEG1.52×
−17.6%Fair value upside−62.8%
n/aDividend yield5.2%
n/aDividend per shareA$0.69
Profitability
n/aOperating margin24.3%
0.87×EBIT margin trend (5Y)1.70×
7.6%Return on equity5.0%
1.2%Return on assets2.1%
Growth
-3.0%Revenue growth (YoY)-9.8%
-1.0%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-2.5%
n/aAvg. growth/yr (5Y)5.9%
−7.9%Value creation/yr+19.8%
Balance & size
1.9×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)1.2×
0.29×Debt / equity2.51×
$758MMarket cap$29B
weakGrowth qualityweak
Transurban, median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 171.6.
Forward P/E: price divided by the analyst consensus for the first fiscal year that has not started yet. The current year carries special items from quarters already reported.

Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development leads: 8 to 3 metric wins.

n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Developmentof which business quality 59 · market factors 59 Transurbanof which business quality 53 · market factors 52
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
37
21
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
48
39
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
88
99
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
25
10
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
92
97
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
89
99
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
44
38
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
50
23
Net IssuanceShare count: buybacks or dilution?
82
77

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyShenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area DevelopmentPrice HK$1.93TransurbanPrice A$13.24
DCF Models+24.4%above the priceHK$2.40−50.6%below the priceA$6.55
Earnings-Based−56.0%below the priceHK$0.85−87.6%below the priceA$1.64
Dividend Discountn/a−17.6%below the priceA$10.91
Multiples+3.9%close to the priceHK$2.01−85.0%below the priceA$1.99
Asset-Based−38.9%below the priceHK$1.18−87.5%below the priceA$1.66
Growth DCF+17.6%above the priceHK$2.27−37.5%below the priceA$8.28
Economic Profit−51.8%below the priceHK$0.93−85.3%below the priceA$1.94
Growth Earnings+42.5%above the priceHK$2.75−81.6%below the priceA$2.44
Minimum−56.0%below the priceHK$0.85−87.6%below the priceA$1.64
Maximum+42.5%above the priceHK$2.75−17.6%below the priceA$10.91
Median+3.9%close to the priceHK$2.01−83.3%below the priceA$2.22
Geometric mean−16.6%below the priceHK$1.61−74.8%below the priceA$3.33

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development: 10 of 21 models see the stock below the current price.

Transurban: 21 of 23 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development
Price HK$1.93
Fair Value HK$1.59
Bear HK$1.47Bull HK$2.03
Transurban
Price A$13.24
Fair Value A$4.92
Bear A$3.94Bull A$6.34

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development · Industrials

Quality score62 · Top 25%
Fair value upside−17.6% · below median

Transurban · Industrials

Quality score57 · above median
Fair value upside−62.8% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 30, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development as the less overvalued of the two: Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development trades at HK$1.93 versus a fair value of HK$1.59 (−17.6%), while Transurban trades at A$13.24 versus A$4.92 (−62.8%).

Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development has the higher quality score (62/100).

Open Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development live analysis →
Shenzhen Investment Holdings Bay Area Development · Transurban

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.