Transurban Group (TCL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Transurban Group stock A$4.92, price A$13.71, upside -64.1%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?Yes
In an uptrend?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$9.91 – A$15.26 · fair‑value band A$3.94 – A$6.34 · the A$13.71 price screens above the A$4.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Transurban Group, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, operation, management, and maintenance of toll road networks in Australia and North America.
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The company operates 22 toll roads in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane in Australia; the Greater Washington, the United States; and Montreal, Canada. Transurban Group was founded in 1996 and is based in Docklands, Australia.
Stock analysis
Transurban Group (TCL) currently trades at A$13.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.92, 64.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of A$11.55 per share, and 4 of the 20 models we run sit above the A$13.71 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$0.8800, and 16 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$3.94 (bear) to A$6.34 (bull), the price of A$13.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Transurban Group reported revenue of A$3.8B in FY2026 versus A$3.4B in FY2022, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$366M in FY2026, compounding +109.5%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap A$42.8B (≈ $30.2B) Large · P/E ratio 116.9 · P/S ratio 10.9 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1173 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −64%, TCL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (A$0.8800 to A$21.97). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
BearA$3.94Fair Value A$4.92BullA$6.34
Price A$13.71 · Upside -64.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +19.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +14.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 79.2% / 3.5%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 29%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 0.18 per share, median 0.42 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 174% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.6% a year for the price and −0.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (61 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Greater ownership in core Sydney toll roads with decades-long concessions supports long-term free cash flows, but the debt-funded move heightens leverage against a backdrop of low ROE.
Main risk: Government-led toll reforms or reviews of concession terms in New South Wales could alter pricing structures or revenue-sharing arrangements and thereby squeeze margins on Transurban's core Sydney network.
Bull case: Transurban could leverage its smart-road infrastructure and partnerships with autonomous-vehicle developers to maintain or even increase traffic volumes and toll relevance on its long-dated concessions.
Bear case: Regulatory tightening of toll terms combined with autonomous-vehicle-driven congestion relief could erode pricing power and cash flows from Transurban's key Australian assets over the concession lives.
Transurban is lifting its ownership in key Sydney toll roads through a debt-funded deal that raises stakes in Westlink M7, NorthConnex and WestConnex. The move strengthens control in a core market with concessions running decades ahead and is expected to support longer-term free cash accretion, yet it increases leverage without touching near-term distributions. Does the greater exposure to urban growth offset the added balance-sheet pressure in this infrastructure model?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−64.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.0% · Below median
Return on assets1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)24.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−9.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)116.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.52× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)10.94× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow22.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA25.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.52× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 55
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 1
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 83
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Transurban Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TCL
Frequently asked questions
Is Transurban Group (TCL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.92 versus a price of A$13.71, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TCL?
Our model-based fair value for Transurban Group is A$4.92 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$13.71.
What is the quality score of TCL?
Transurban Group has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transurban Group (TCL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$4.92 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.94, optimistic scenario A$6.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transurban Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$4.92, about −64% upside versus a price of A$13.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$3.94, optimistic scenario A$6.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transurban Group (TCL)?
Transurban Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$3.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Transurban Group pay a dividend?
Transurban Group currently shows a dividend yield of 5.03% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Transurban Group (TCL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Transurban Group would have to grow free cash flow by +12.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TCL use?
Our models discount Transurban Group at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Transurban Group that is +12.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Transurban Group (TCL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Transurban Group grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies +12.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Transurban Group (TCL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Transurban Group (+12.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Transurban Group (TCL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.49 %: that much free cash flow Transurban Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Transurban Group (TCL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transurban Group it is A$4.92 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of A$13.71. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Transurban Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, TCL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$13.71, fair value A$4.92, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$13.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$4.92). For Transurban Group the two are A$8.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transurban Group worth?
The market values Transurban Group at about A$42.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is A$13.71; our models calculate a fair value of A$4.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCL?
Our models span a range for Transurban Group: cautious scenario A$3.94, base A$4.92, optimistic A$6.34 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price A$13.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCL?
Transurban Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 116.9 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$4.92 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 171.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 5.5, P/S 10.9, EV/EBITDA 25.9.
What is the PEG ratio of TCL?
The PEG ratio of Transurban Group is 1.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Transurban Group (TCL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Transurban Group (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 5.0%, debt of 2.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TCL from its 52-week high?
Transurban Group trades at A$13.71, about 10% below its 52-week high of A$15.26 and 6% above the low of A$12.95 (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$4.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transurban Group?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, Zhejiang Expressway Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transurban Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price A$13.71, calculated fair value A$4.92 (−64%), Quality Score 57/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCL calculated?
We run Transurban Group through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$4.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Transurban Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transurban Group (TCL)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was A$13.71. Our model-based fair value is A$4.92, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transurban Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$6.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Transurban Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Transurban Group (TCL)?
The market capitalisation of Transurban Group is A$42.8B (≈ $30.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Transurban Group (TCL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transurban Group is 10.9 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transurban Group (TCL)?
Earnings per share at Transurban Group are A$0.1173 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 116.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Transurban Group (TCL)?
The dividend yield of Transurban Group is 5.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Transurban Group (TCL)?
The net margin of Transurban Group is 9.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Transurban Group (TCL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Transurban Group is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transurban Group (TCL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transurban Group is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transurban Group (TCL)?
The operating margin of Transurban Group is 24.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transurban Group (TCL)?
Revenue at Transurban Group is growing −9.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Transurban Group (TCL)?
Earnings per share at Transurban Group are growing −62.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Transurban Group (TCL) carry?
The net debt of Transurban Group is A$18.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 28, 2026