China Mengniu Dairy vs Nestle S.A.: Fair Value & Quality
Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how China Mengniu Dairy (2319) and Nestle S.A. (NESN) compare, as of Oct 1, 2026.
Head-to-head numbers
Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.
betterweakerfor reference, not scored
China Mengniu Dairy leads: 7 to 6 metric wins.
n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.
Quality in detail
The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.
What the models say
How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.
▲above the price, more than 15% above ●close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price ▼below the price, more than 15% below
| Model family | China Mengniu DairyPrice HK$17.84 | Nestle S.A.Price CHF 76.02 |
|---|---|---|
| DCF Models | ▲+59.0%above the priceHK$28.36 | ▼−30.2%below the priceCHF 53.09 |
| Earnings-Based | ▼−57.0%below the priceHK$7.67 | ▼−55.9%below the priceCHF 33.53 |
| Dividend Discount | ▼−44.9%below the priceHK$9.83 | ▼−54.1%below the priceCHF 34.87 |
| Multiples | ●−12.8%close to the priceHK$15.55 | ●−12.2%close to the priceCHF 66.73 |
| Asset-Based | ▼−54.0%below the priceHK$8.21 | ▼−88.8%below the priceCHF 8.55 |
| Growth DCF | ▲+85.5%above the priceHK$33.09 | ▼−33.3%below the priceCHF 50.71 |
| Economic Profit | ▼−35.4%below the priceHK$11.52 | ▼−58.3%below the priceCHF 31.68 |
| Growth Earnings | ▼−58.7%below the priceHK$7.37 | ▼−26.6%below the priceCHF 55.79 |
| Minimum | ▼−58.7%below the priceHK$7.37 | ▼−88.8%below the priceCHF 8.55 |
| Maximum | ▲+85.5%above the priceHK$33.09 | ●−12.2%close to the priceCHF 66.73 |
| Median | ▼−40.2%below the priceHK$10.67 | ▼−43.7%below the priceCHF 42.79 |
| Geometric mean | ▼−27.7%below the priceHK$12.90 | ▼−51.9%below the priceCHF 36.53 |
Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.
China Mengniu Dairy: 14 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.
Nestle S.A.: 23 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.
Scenario ranges
From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.
Compare two other stocks
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Ranked within their sector
Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.
China Mengniu Dairy · Consumer Staples
Nestle S.A. · Consumer Staples
Bottom line
As of Oct 1, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Nestle S.A. as the less overvalued of the two: China Mengniu Dairy trades at HK$17.84 versus a fair value of HK$9.81 (−45.0%), while Nestle S.A. trades at CHF 76.02 versus CHF 59.51 (−21.7%).
Nestle S.A. has the higher quality score (68/100).
Open Nestle S.A. live analysis →More comparisons
Popular match-ups from the same sectors, all with fair value and quality score.
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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.