China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Mengniu Dairy Co HK$9.81, price HK$17.84, upside -45.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$11.21 – HK$44.31 · fair‑value band HK$9.18 – HK$12.26 · the HK$17.84 price screens above the HK$9.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Mainland and internationally. It operates in five segments: Liquid Milk Business, Ice Cream Business, Milk Formula Business, Cheese Business, and Others.
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China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Mainland and internationally. It operates in five segments: Liquid Milk Business, Ice Cream Business, Milk Formula Business, Cheese Business, and Others. The Liquid Milk Business segment offers ultra-high temperature milk, milk beverages, yogurt, and fresh milk. The Ice Cream Business segment manufactures and distributes dairy-based ice cream. The Milk Formula Business segment is involved in the manufacture and distribution of milk powder. The Cheese Business segment engages in the manufacture and distribution of cheese. The Other segment is involved in manufacturing raw materials for daily products; and trading business. It also produces and sells organic food and formula products for babies and toddlers; sells raw materials; and provides commercial factoring and financing guarantee services. China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) currently trades at HK$17.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.81, 45.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$27.73 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$17.84 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$3.87, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$9.18 (bear) to HK$12.26 (bull), the price of HK$17.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
China Mengniu Dairy Co reported revenue of 82.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 88.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding −25.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$69.1B (≈ $8.8B) · P/E ratio 30.8 · P/S ratio 0.58 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% · Operating margin 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −45%, 2319 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$9.18Fair Value HK$9.81Bull HK$12.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+11.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17.6% vs −4.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.2% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 644 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−45.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.1% · Below median
Return on assets3.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)30.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.46× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.69× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF9.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.26× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)39· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)17· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)67· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Mengniu Dairy Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2319
Frequently asked questions
Is China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.81 versus a price of HK$17.84, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2319?
Our model-based fair value for China Mengniu Dairy Co is HK$9.81 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$17.84.
What is the quality score of 2319?
China Mengniu Dairy Co has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$9.81 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.18, optimistic scenario HK$12.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Mengniu Dairy Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$9.81, about −45% upside versus a price of HK$17.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$9.18, optimistic scenario HK$12.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
China Mengniu Dairy Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 85.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does China Mengniu Dairy Co pay a dividend?
China Mengniu Dairy Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Mengniu Dairy Co would have to grow free cash flow by -5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2319 use?
Our models discount China Mengniu Dairy Co at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Mengniu Dairy Co that is -5.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Mengniu Dairy Co grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies -5.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Mengniu Dairy Co (-5.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.65 %: that much free cash flow China Mengniu Dairy Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Mengniu Dairy Co it is HK$9.81 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$17.84. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Mengniu Dairy Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2319 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$17.84, fair value HK$9.81, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2319?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$17.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$9.81). For China Mengniu Dairy Co the two are HK$8.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Mengniu Dairy Co worth?
The market values China Mengniu Dairy Co at about HK$69.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$17.84; our models calculate a fair value of HK$9.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2319?
Our models span a range for China Mengniu Dairy Co: cautious scenario HK$9.18, base HK$9.81, optimistic HK$12.26 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$17.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2319?
China Mengniu Dairy Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$9.81 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 15.1 (reported for FY2025: 38.5). Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 2319?
The PEG ratio of China Mengniu Dairy Co is 0.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Mengniu Dairy Co (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.1%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2319 from its 52-week high?
China Mengniu Dairy Co trades at HK$17.84, about 8% below its 52-week high of HK$19.42 and 31% above the low of HK$13.57 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$9.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Mengniu Dairy Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Mengniu Dairy Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$17.84, calculated fair value HK$9.81 (−45%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2319 calculated?
We run China Mengniu Dairy Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$9.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Mengniu Dairy Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$17.84. Our model-based fair value is HK$9.81, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Mengniu Dairy Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$12.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) come from?
Earnings per share at China Mengniu Dairy Co grew −1.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin +3.2 %, tax rate −2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Mengniu Dairy Co
How large is the market capitalisation of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
The market capitalisation of China Mengniu Dairy Co is HK$69.1B (≈ $8.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Mengniu Dairy Co is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
The dividend yield of China Mengniu Dairy Co is 3.3% (payout 49.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 128%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
The net margin of China Mengniu Dairy Co is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Mengniu Dairy Co is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Mengniu Dairy Co is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
The operating margin of China Mengniu Dairy Co is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
Revenue at China Mengniu Dairy Co is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
Earnings per share at China Mengniu Dairy Co are growing +17.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) carry?
The net debt of China Mengniu Dairy Co is 12.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 27, 2026