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China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$64.0B

CM China Mengniu Dairy Co 2319 · HK
PriceHK$18.18
Fair ValueHK$9.76
Upside-46.3%
Quality61/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 1.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.23% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/15)
Narrow moat 24/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$7.32 – HK$12.20 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$9.75 to HK$9.76 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +2.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 46% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$12.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$44.31 HK$11.21 Fair Value HK$9.76 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$11.21 – HK$44.31 · fair‑value band HK$7.32 – HK$12.20 · the HK$18.18 price screens above the HK$9.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) currently trades at HK$18.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.76, implying the stock looks roughly 46.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Mengniu Dairy Co generated revenue of HK$82.2B at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue declined 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at HK$12.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$7.32 (bear case) to HK$12.20 (bull case); at HK$18.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -46%, 2319 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$19.95 HK$31.95 HK$51.01 80
Residual Income HK$7.85 HK$7.86 HK$7.13 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$14.94 HK$23.27 HK$33.28 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$19.77 HK$32.00 HK$51.50 38
Owner Earnings HK$7.89 HK$12.59 HK$20.07 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$14.94 HK$23.22 HK$33.84 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.92 HK$32.85 HK$48.24 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$10.78 HK$15.19 HK$19.77 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$16.08 HK$24.20 HK$35.34 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$19.69 HK$31.00 HK$46.67 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$13.78 HK$18.52 HK$24.27 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.72 HK$9.80 HK$13.21 54
Lynch FV HK$2.32 HK$3.31 HK$4.31 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$2.32 HK$3.31 HK$4.31 46
EPV HK$10.31 HK$11.95 HK$13.38 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$4.73 HK$9.83 HK$15.60 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$4.73 HK$8.29 HK$10.32 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$6.30 HK$8.39 HK$10.49 63
P/S Multiple HK$5.10 HK$6.80 HK$8.49 58
P/B Multiple HK$5.10 HK$6.80 HK$8.49 55
EV/EBIT HK$17.87 HK$23.66 HK$29.45 53
EV/EBITDA HK$22.17 HK$29.39 HK$36.61 54
EV/Revenue HK$12.90 HK$18.21 HK$23.53 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$5.24 HK$7.03 HK$10.49 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$19.95 HK$31.95 HK$51.01 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$14.94 HK$23.27 HK$33.28 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$7.85 HK$7.86 HK$7.13 76
ROIC Compounder HK$10.31 HK$13.09 HK$17.09 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.41 HK$6.30 HK$8.19 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$23.27) versus Earnings-Based (HK$3.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$82.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) -7.6%
Net margin 1.9%
Return on equity 3.4%
Free cash flow HK$6.3B FY2025
P/E ratio 36.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 3.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.5200
Dividend yield 3.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -15.9%
Net debt HK$12.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Mainland and internationally. It operates in five segments: Liquid Milk Business, Ice Cream Business, Milk Formula Business, Cheese Business, and Others.

Full company description

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Mainland and internationally. It operates in five segments: Liquid Milk Business, Ice Cream Business, Milk Formula Business, Cheese Business, and Others. The Liquid Milk Business segment offers ultra-high temperature milk, milk beverages, yogurt, and fresh milk. The Ice Cream Business segment manufactures and distributes dairy-based ice cream. The Milk Formula Business segment is involved in the manufacture and distribution of milk powder. The Cheese Business segment engages in the manufacture and distribution of cheese. The Other segment is involved in manufacturing raw materials for daily products; and trading business. It also produces and sells organic food and formula products for babies and toddlers; sells raw materials; and provides commercial factoring and financing guarantee services. China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Mengniu Dairy Co reported revenue of HK$82.2B in FY2025 versus HK$88.1B in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.5B in FY2025, compounding −25.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$82.2B
Latest YoY
−7.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.6%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.6%
Revenue −1.7%/yr
FY21 HK$88.1B
FY22 HK$92.6B
FY23 HK$98.6B
FY24 HK$88.7B
FY25 HK$82.2B
Net income −25.5%/yr
FY21 HK$5.0B
FY22 HK$5.3B
FY23 HK$4.8B
FY24 HK$105M
FY25 HK$1.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −1.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.4 pp

of which total revenue +6.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp

EBIT margin +3.2 pp
Tax rate −2.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −8.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

2319 screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →

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China Mengniu Dairy Co · Fair Value
HK$9.76 −46%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Mengniu Dairy Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2319

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 652 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −46% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth -8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.28× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 36.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.58× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.78× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.31× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 23
FUTURE 0 · sector 19
PAST 14 · sector 28
HEALTH 86 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 65 · sector 55

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,507 ₹362.37 -76%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,646 ₹1,870 -67%
Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM ₹1,062 ₹327.27 -69%
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 7,550 IDR 12,864 IDR +70%
Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,219,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -17%
Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI ₹352.60 ₹144.77 -59%
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 61,600 VND 52,858 VND -14%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,665 IDR 2,699 IDR +62%
PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY 4,630 IDR 4,350 IDR -6%
Nongshim Co 004370 389,500 KRW 530,619 KRW +36%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.76 versus a price of HK$18.18, about −46% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2319?
Our model-based fair value for China Mengniu Dairy Co is HK$9.76 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$18.18.
What is the quality score of 2319?
China Mengniu Dairy Co has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319)?
China Mengniu Dairy Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$82.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2319?
The net profit margin of China Mengniu Dairy Co is about 1.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Mengniu Dairy Co pay a dividend?
China Mengniu Dairy Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.23% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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