ASML Holding vs Nova: Fair Value & Quality
Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how ASML Holding (ASML) and Nova (NVMI) compare, as of Sep 22, 2026.
Head-to-head numbers
Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).
Nova leads: 5 to 8 metric wins.
Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.
Quality in detail
The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.
What the models say
How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.
▲above the price, more than 15% above ●close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price ▼below the price, more than 15% below
| Model family | ASML HoldingPrice €1,481 | NovaPrice $356 |
|---|---|---|
| DCF Models | ▼-45%below the price€822 | ▼-42%below the price$205 |
| Earnings-Based | ▼-73%below the price€393 | ▼-56%below the price$158 |
| Dividend Discount | ▼-91%below the price€127 | n/a |
| Multiples | ▼-65%below the price€515 | ▼-61%below the price$140 |
| Asset-Based | ▼-98%below the price€34.21 | ▼-92%below the price$27.77 |
| Growth DCF | ▼-49%below the price€756 | ▼-53%below the price$166 |
| Economic Profit | ▼-75%below the price€376 | ▼-79%below the price$75.64 |
| Growth Earnings | ▼-54%below the price€675 | ▼-30%below the price$250 |
| Minimum | ▼-98%below the price€34.21 | ▼-92%below the price$27.77 |
| Maximum | ▼-45%below the price€822 | ▼-30%below the price$250 |
| Median | ▼-69%below the price€454 | ▼-56%below the price$158 |
| Geometric mean | ▼-78%below the price€329 | ▼-66%below the price$122 |
Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.
ASML Holding: 26 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.
Nova: 23 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.
Scenario ranges
From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.
Compare two other stocks
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Ranked within their sector
Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.
ASML Holding · Information Technology
Nova · Information Technology
Bottom line
As of Sep 22, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees ASML Holding as the less overvalued of the two: ASML Holding trades at €1,481 versus a fair value of €1,350 (-9%), while Nova trades at $356 versus $277 (-22%).
ASML Holding has the higher quality score (82/100).
See the full analysis →More comparisons
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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.