Nova Ltd (NVMI) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $13.9B
Nova Ltd
NVMI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Share price −14.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 68% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($155.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($68.58 to $155.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $69.50 – $605.65 · fair‑value band $68.58 – $155.42 · the $381.32 price screens above the $123.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Nova Ltd (NVMI) currently trades at $381.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $123.20, implying the stock looks roughly 67.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nova Ltd generated revenue of $903M at a net margin of 29.2%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.3%. Net debt stands at $644M. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $68.58 (bear case) to $155.42 (bull case); at $381.32, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -75% fair-value upside, at -68%, NVMI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($213.98) versus Asset-Based ($27.77). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nova Ltd. engages in the design, development, production, and sale of process control systems used in the manufacture of semiconductors in Taiwan, the United States, China, Korea, and internationally.
Full company description
Nova Ltd. engages in the design, development, production, and sale of process control systems used in the manufacture of semiconductors in Taiwan, the United States, China, Korea, and internationally. The company's product portfolio includes a set of metrology platforms for dimensional, films, and materials and chemical metrology measurements for process control for various semiconductor manufacturing process steps, such as lithography, Etch, chemical mechanical planarization, deposition, electrochemical plating, and advanced packaging. It serves various sectors of the integrated circuit manufacturing industry, including logic, foundry, memory, and packaging sectors, as well as process equipment manufacturers. Nova Ltd. was formerly known as Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. and changed its name to Nova Ltd. in July 2021. Nova Ltd. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Rehovot, Israel.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nova Ltd reported revenue of $881M in FY2025 versus $416M in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was $259M in FY2025, compounding +29.2%/yr from FY2021.
NVMI screens 68% overvalued. Compare with ASML Holding →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Soars 7.4%: Is Further Upside Left in the Stock?
- Down 27% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Looks Ripe for a Turnaround
- Amtech, Semtech, Nova, Power Integrations, and FormFactor Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know
Peer Group
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 208 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML Holding ASML | C$50.50 | C$15.57 | -69% |
| Applied Materials, Inc AMAT | $579.43 | $143.08 | -75% |
| Lam Research Corporation LRCX | $346.10 | $67.57 | -80% |
| KLA Corporation KLAC | $212.75 | $53.01 | -75% |
| NAURA Technology Group 002371 | ¥774.20 | ¥151.43 | -80% |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 | ¥350.69 | ¥41.79 | -88% |
| Piotech Inc 688072 | ¥832.00 | ¥431.44 | -48% |
| Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 | 6,005 TWD | 1,804 TWD | -70% |
| Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co 300604 | ¥325.24 | ¥33.33 | -90% |
| MPI Corporation 6223 | 5,600 TWD | 609.44 TWD | -89% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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