Nova Ltd (NVMI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nova Ltd stock $337, price $280, upside +20.1%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $69.50 – $605.65 · fair‑value band $153.08 – $437.66 · the $280.30 price screens below the $336.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Nova Ltd. engages in the design, development, production, and sale of process control systems used in the manufacture of semiconductors in Taiwan, the United States, China, Korea, and internationally.
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The company's product portfolio includes a set of metrology platforms for dimensional, films, and materials and chemical metrology measurements for process control for various semiconductor manufacturing process steps, such as lithography, Etch, chemical mechanical planarization, deposition, electrochemical plating, and advanced packaging.
It serves various sectors of the integrated circuit manufacturing industry, including logic, foundry, memory, and packaging sectors, as well as process equipment manufacturers. Nova Ltd. was formerly known as Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. and changed its name to Nova Ltd. in July 2021.
Nova Ltd. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Rehovot, Israel.
Stock analysis
Nova Ltd (NVMI) currently trades at $280.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $336.70, implying the stock looks roughly 17% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $250.19 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $280.30 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $40.34, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $153.08 (bear) to $437.66 (bull), the price of $280.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nova Ltd reported revenue of $881M in FY2025 versus $416M in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was $259M in FY2025, compounding +29.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.7B Mid · P/E ratio 37.4 · P/S ratio 10.3 · EPS (TTM) $7.49 · Net margin 28.8% · Return on equity 21.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.0% · Operating margin 29.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 82 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 20%, NVMI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$153.08Fair Value $336.70Bull$437.66
Price $280.30 · Upside +20.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $6.7M and none bought.
SaleShay WolfingCTO3,864 shares at $363.28$1.4MSep 21, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleGabriel WaismanCEO & President2× since Jul 2, 2026: 4,466 shares, avg. $447.89$2.0MSep 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSarit SagivDirector2× since May 18, 2026: 1,246 shares, avg. $542.11$675,472Jun 23, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleZehava SimonDirector2× since May 18, 2026: 1,246 shares, avg. $542.11$675,472Jun 23, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleYaniv GartyDirector3× since Apr 2, 2026: 847 shares, avg. $537.51$455,267Jun 22, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEitan OppenhaimDirector2× since May 26, 2026: 2,794 shares, avg. $547.98$1.5MJun 22, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.5% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+36.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+36.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.36.7% vs 30.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 29%
2025 sits 80% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+21.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.7% a year for the price and +19.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Nova gains from metrology tools serving rising AI advanced packaging demand that now forms a notable revenue share yet remains exposed to concentrated customer patterns and moderating growth signals.
Main risk: Nova could lose significant revenue if one or more key foundry or memory customers such as TSMC or Samsung reduce capital spending or shift suppliers, given the high concentration where the top few account for the majority of sales.
Bull case: Nova could deepen integration with its existing key customers through continued technology leadership in advanced packaging and GAA nodes while expanding qualifications with additional foundries and memory makers to reduce concentration.
Bear case: If key customers delay or cut spending and Chinese rivals win more local qualifications, Nova could see slower revenue growth, margin compression from pricing pressure and reduced ability to offset cyclical weakness in its core metrology markets.
Nova's metrology tools gain from rising advanced packaging demand tied to AI chips, now making up nearly a quarter of product revenue. Recent analyst caution on concentrated exposure and growth moderation raises the question whether this tailwind sustains or fades. Will the business capture more from ongoing AI-driven capacity expansion than it loses if foundry spending patterns shift?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 233 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nova Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NVMI
Frequently asked questions
Is Nova Ltd (NVMI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $336.70 versus a price of $280.30, about +20% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NVMI?
Our model-based fair value for Nova Ltd is $336.70 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $280.30.
What is the quality score of NVMI?
Nova Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $336.70 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $153.08, optimistic scenario $437.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nova Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $336.70, about +20% upside versus a price of $280.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $153.08, optimistic scenario $437.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
Nova Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $937M (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nova Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +29.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.7 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NVMI use?
Our models discount Nova Ltd at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.78, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nova Ltd that is +29.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nova Ltd (NVMI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nova Ltd grew +26.7 % a year. The price currently implies +29.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nova Ltd (NVMI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nova Ltd (+29.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.26 %: that much free cash flow Nova Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nova Ltd it is $336.70 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $280.30. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nova Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, NVMI trades below its calculated fair value: price $280.30, fair value $336.70, a gap of about +20% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVMI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($280.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($336.70). For Nova Ltd the two are $56.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nova Ltd worth?
The market values Nova Ltd at about $9.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $280.30; our models calculate a fair value of $336.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVMI?
Our models span a range for Nova Ltd: cautious scenario $153.08, base $336.70, optimistic $437.66 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $280.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NVMI?
Nova Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.4 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $336.70 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 33.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 7.3, P/S 10.3, EV/EBITDA 34.3.
What is the PEG ratio of NVMI?
The PEG ratio of Nova Ltd is 1.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nova Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 21.1%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NVMI from its 52-week high?
Nova Ltd trades at $280.30, about 54% below its 52-week high of $605.65 and 2% above the low of $275.78 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $336.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nova Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Inc, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nova Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $280.30, calculated fair value $336.70 (+20%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVMI calculated?
We run Nova Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $336.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Nova Ltd currently trades 17% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $280.30. Our model-based fair value is $336.70, about +20% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nova Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($153.08 to $437.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Nova Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
The market capitalisation of Nova Ltd is $9.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nova Ltd is 10.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
Earnings per share at Nova Ltd are $7.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
The net margin of Nova Ltd is 28.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nova Ltd is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nova Ltd is 13.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
The operating margin of Nova Ltd is 29.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
Revenue at Nova Ltd is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nova Ltd (NVMI)?
Earnings per share at Nova Ltd are growing +2.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nova Ltd (NVMI) carry?
The net debt of Nova Ltd is $644M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026