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STOCK COMPARISON

Marathon Petroleum vs Exxon Mobil: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) compare, as of Sep 4, 2026.

As of Sep 4, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Exxon Mobil as the less overvalued of the two: Marathon Petroleum trades at $388 versus a fair value of $133 (-66%), while Exxon Mobil trades at $162 versus $88.98 (-45%).
Marathon Petroleum
MPC · USD · Energy
-66%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$388
Fair Value$133
Quality61/100
Exxon Mobil
XOM · USD · Energy
-45%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$162
Fair Value$88.98
Quality56/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Marathon PetroleumExxon Mobil
Valuation
18.7×P/E (TTM)24.6×
0.61×P/S (TTM)1.86×
4.78×P/B2.34×
10.7×EV/EBITDA11.3×
1.41×PEG1.20×
−65.6%Fair value upside−45.1%
1.0%Dividend yield2.5%
$3.91Dividend per share$4.04
Profitability
4%Operating margin6%
27%Return on equity10%
5%Return on assets4%
Growth
9%Revenue growth (YoY)3%
-9.2%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-6.7%
13.7%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)12.6%
+10.1%Value creation/yr+11.4%
Balance & size
4.1×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)56.3×
1.76×Debt / equity0.13×
$83BMarket cap$606B
weakGrowth qualityweak

Exxon Mobil leads: 5 to 9 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Marathon Petroleumof which business quality 57 · market factors 93 Exxon Mobilof which business quality 57 · market factors 76
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
53
43
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
35
33
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
50
51
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
33
77
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
99
60
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
78
88
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
100
62
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
100
85
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
100
77

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyMarathon PetroleumPrice $388Exxon MobilPrice $162
DCF Models-69%below the price$120-49%below the price$83.38
Earnings-Based-78%below the price$84.34-53%below the price$76.97
Dividend Discount-86%below the price$55.80n/a
Multiples-65%below the price$136-44%below the price$90.93
Asset-Based-90%below the price$39.74-74%below the price$41.93
Growth DCF-58%below the price$162-47%below the price$86.16
Economic Profit-72%below the price$108-61%below the price$62.60
Growth Earnings-58%below the price$161-52%below the price$77.86
Minimum-90%below the price$39.74-74%below the price$41.93
Maximum-58%below the price$162-44%below the price$90.93
Median-71%below the price$114-52%below the price$77.86
Geometric mean-75%below the price$98.02-55%below the price$72.25

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Marathon Petroleum: 25 of 25 models see the stock below the current price.

Exxon Mobil: 22 of 22 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Marathon Petroleum
Bear $74.68Fair Value $133Bull $209
$388 = current price (white tick)
Exxon Mobil
Bear $59.15Fair Value $88.98Bull $117
$162 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Marathon Petroleum · Energy

Quality score61 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-66% · bottom 25%

Exxon Mobil · Energy

Quality score56 · above median
Fair value upside-45% · below median

Bottom line

As of Sep 4, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Exxon Mobil as the less overvalued of the two: Marathon Petroleum trades at $388 versus a fair value of $133 (-66%), while Exxon Mobil trades at $162 versus $88.98 (-45%).

Marathon Petroleum has the higher quality score (61/100).

See the full analysis →
Marathon Petroleum · Exxon Mobil

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.