Global Equity Fair Value Report October 2026
Dr. Peter Klein · Fair Value Calculator Research · As of: 2026-10-01 · Methodology version: mcw_v1+displayfv
Abstract.
Across 25,127 covered stocks, the global equity market trades +14.8 % above its aggregate fair value on a capitalisation-weighted basis. The valuation premium concentrates in large caps and the technology sector, while several regions and sectors trade near or below fair value. All tables are available as CSV, free to use with attribution.
Download the data (CSV)
Key findings
- Global market valuation sits above 17% of comparison periods since 2015 (our own time series).
- 30-day trend in the valuation level: -0.4 points (cheaper).
- Sector dispersion: valuations span 42.8 percentage points (standard deviation 11.5), so the premium is concentrated, not broad-based.
1. Data & methodology
- Universe: 35,000+ valued stocks; this analysis includes 25,127 names (publicly visible, minimum data quality and model coverage, one listing per company).
- Per-stock fair value: an evidence-weighted blend of 26 valuation models plus 37 quality factors; display-corrected values (outlier guards).
- Aggregation: capitalisation-weighted (Σ market cap vs Σ market cap × FV/price), FV/price ratios winsorised to [0.25, 4.0]; cross-listings deduplicated.
- Concentration: the 50 largest names account for 33.9% of aggregate market value (top 100: 41.3%).
2. Result: overall market
The market trades +14.8 % versus aggregate fair value on a capitalisation-weighted basis (from the price perspective this equals an average gap of -12.9 % to fair value).
3. Sectors
| Sector | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Utilities | +29.1 % | 620 |
| Energy | +27.6 % | 839 |
| Industrials | +25.4 % | 4,862 |
| Materials | +23.4 % | 2,937 |
| Information Technology | +18.5 % | 3,216 |
| Consumer Staples | +18.5 % | 1,637 |
| Financials | +14.4 % | 3,050 |
| Consumer Discretionary | +12.4 % | 3,415 |
| Real Estate | +9.2 % | 1,686 |
| Health Care | +8.1 % | 1,864 |
| Communication Services | -13.7 % | 937 |
4. Regions
| Region | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Oceania | +23.9 % | 738 |
| North America | +20.2 % | 5,133 |
| Middle East | +17.3 % | 945 |
| Europe | +13.2 % | 3,621 |
| Asia | +3.6 % | 14,201 |
| South America | -19.6 % | 336 |
5. Countries (top 20 by deviation)
| Country | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Italy | +37.5 % | 266 |
| Finland | +36.3 % | 152 |
| Switzerland | +35.8 % | 175 |
| India | +35.4 % | 3,071 |
| Israel | +30.3 % | 266 |
| Vietnam | +30.2 % | 172 |
| Singapore | +26.8 % | 371 |
| Australia | +23.9 % | 738 |
| USA | +20.6 % | 4,557 |
| Sweden | +18.9 % | 454 |
| Saudi Arabia | +17.4 % | 291 |
| Taiwan | +15.3 % | 1,712 |
| Canada | +13.8 % | 486 |
| Norway | +13.5 % | 175 |
| Korea | +12.7 % | 1,524 |
| Germany | +12.1 % | 379 |
| Poland | +11.5 % | 303 |
| Thailand | +9.0 % | 705 |
| Malaysia | +8.1 % | 830 |
| UK | +7.5 % | 624 |
6. Size classes
| Class | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Large & mega caps (≥ $10B) | +17.1 % | 2,037 |
| Mid caps ($2 to $10B) | +3.8 % | 3,676 |
| Small caps (< $2B) | +2.0 % | 19,414 |
7. Statistical notes
- This is a stock-level valuation snapshot, not a test of any causal relationship. "Above fair value" describes a state, not a forecast and not causation.
- Sector deviations carry a standard deviation of 11.5 percentage points, so individual sector figures differ in robustness and should not be read as exact point values.
- Coverage: good (25,127 resolvable names). Unresolvable positions are omitted, never estimated.
8. Possible biases
- Capitalisation weighting: a few mega caps dominate; the 50 largest names hold 33.9% of market value. Equal-weighted, the premium would look milder.
- Model and data bias: fair values are estimates; winsorisation to [0.25, 4.0] dampens extremes and can slightly bias tail groups.
- Survivorship: this snapshot uses currently listed names; the backtest is separately survivorship-adjusted.
9. Limitations
- Model-based estimates: fair values are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.
- Point-in-time: all figures refer to the stated as-of date and change with prices and new filings.
- No forecast: a high or low valuation says nothing about short-term price moves.
10. How to cite
Klein, P. (2026). Global Equity Fair Value Report, October 2026. Fair Value Calculator Research.
https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/research/2026-10-global-equity-fair-value-report/
Data and charts are free to use with attribution ("Source: fairvalue-calculator.com") under CC BY 4.0.
