Global Equity Fair Value Report October 2026
Dr. Peter Klein · Fair Value Calculator Research · As of: 2026-10-01 · Methodology version: mcw_v1+displayfv
Abstract.
Across 25,127 covered stocks, the global equity market trades +14.8 % versus its aggregate fair value on a capitalisation-weighted basis. The most expensive sectors are Utilities (+29.1 %) and Energy (+27.6 %). Large caps stand at +17.1 %, small caps at +2.0 %. Near or below fair value: Communication Services (-13.7 %), South America (-19.6 %). All tables are available as CSV, free to use with attribution.
Download the data (CSV)
Key findings
- Global market valuation sits above 2 of 11 earlier year-end values since 2015 (our own time series).
- 30-day trend in the valuation level: -0.4 points (cheaper).
- Sector dispersion: valuations span 42.8 percentage points (standard deviation 11.5); 10 of 11 sectors trade above fair value, so the premium is broad-based, though uneven across sectors.
1. Data & methodology
- Universe: 35,000+ valued stocks; this analysis includes 25,127 names (publicly visible, minimum data quality and model coverage, one listing per company).
- Per-stock fair value: an evidence-weighted blend of 26 valuation models plus 37 quality factors; display-corrected values (outlier guards).
- Aggregation: capitalisation-weighted (Σ market cap vs Σ market cap × FV/price), FV/price ratios winsorised to [0.25, 4.0]; cross-listings deduplicated.
- Concentration: the 50 largest names account for 33.9% of aggregate market value (top 100: 41.3%).
2. Result: overall market
The market trades +14.8 % versus aggregate fair value on a capitalisation-weighted basis (from the price perspective this equals an average gap of -12.9 % to fair value).
3. Sectors
| Sector | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Utilities | +29.1 % | 620 |
| Energy | +27.6 % | 839 |
| Industrials | +25.4 % | 4,862 |
| Materials | +23.4 % | 2,937 |
| Information Technology | +18.5 % | 3,216 |
| Consumer Staples | +18.5 % | 1,637 |
| Financials | +14.4 % | 3,050 |
| Consumer Discretionary | +12.4 % | 3,415 |
| Real Estate | +9.2 % | 1,686 |
| Health Care | +8.1 % | 1,864 |
| Communication Services | -13.7 % | 937 |
4. Regions
| Region | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Oceania | +23.9 % | 738 |
| North America | +20.2 % | 5,133 |
| Middle East | +17.3 % | 945 |
| Europe | +13.2 % | 3,621 |
| Asia | +3.6 % | 14,201 |
| South America | -19.6 % | 336 |
5. Countries (the 20 most expensive)
| Country | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Italy | +37.5 % | 266 |
| Finland | +36.3 % | 152 |
| Switzerland | +35.8 % | 175 |
| India | +35.4 % | 3,071 |
| Israel | +30.3 % | 266 |
| Vietnam | +30.2 % | 172 |
| Singapore | +26.8 % | 371 |
| Australia | +23.9 % | 738 |
| USA | +20.6 % | 4,557 |
| Sweden | +18.9 % | 454 |
| Saudi Arabia | +17.4 % | 291 |
| Taiwan | +15.3 % | 1,712 |
| Canada | +13.8 % | 486 |
| Norway | +13.5 % | 175 |
| Korea | +12.7 % | 1,524 |
| Germany | +12.1 % | 379 |
| Poland | +11.5 % | 303 |
| Thailand | +9.0 % | 705 |
| Malaysia | +8.1 % | 830 |
| UK | +7.5 % | 624 |
6. Size classes
| Class | vs fair value | n |
|---|
| Large & mega caps (≥ $10B) | +17.1 % | 2,037 |
| Mid caps ($2 to $10B) | +3.8 % | 3,676 |
| Small caps (< $2B) | +2.0 % | 19,414 |
7. Statistical notes
- This is a stock-level valuation snapshot, not a test of any causal relationship. "Above fair value" describes a state, not a forecast and not causation.
- Sector deviations carry a standard deviation of 11.5 percentage points, so individual sector figures differ in robustness and should not be read as exact point values.
- Coverage: good (25,127 resolvable names). Unresolvable positions are omitted, never estimated.
8. Possible biases
- Capitalisation weighting: a few mega caps dominate; the 50 largest names hold 33.9% of market value. Equal-weighted, the premium would look milder.
- Model and data bias: fair values are estimates; winsorisation to [0.25, 4.0] dampens extremes and can slightly bias tail groups.
- Survivorship: this snapshot uses currently listed names; the backtest is separately survivorship-adjusted.
9. Limitations
- Model-based estimates: fair values are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.
- Point-in-time: all figures refer to the stated as-of date and change with prices and new filings.
- No forecast: a high or low valuation says nothing about short-term price moves.
10. How to cite
Klein, P. (2026).
Global Equity Fair Value Report, October 2026. Fair Value Calculator Research.
https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/research/2026-10-global-equity-fair-value-report/
Dataset:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21639205
Data and charts are free to use with attribution ("Source: fairvalue-calculator.com") under CC BY 4.0.
Common questions
Is the stock market overvalued in October 2026?
On a capitalisation-weighted basis the global stock market trades 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value, measured across 25,127 stocks.
Which sector is the cheapest and which the most expensive?
Cheapest relative to fair value: Communication Services (-13.7 %). Most expensive: Utilities (+29.1 %).
How is the market's fair value calculated?
Every stock has a fair value from 26 valuation models, weighted by evidence. For the market, fair values are summed weighted by market cap and compared with market cap; cross-listings count once.
May I cite the report?
Yes. Data and charts are licensed CC BY 4.0 and free to use with attribution ("Source: fairvalue-calculator.com"). The citation line is at the end of the report.
