Hubei Heyuan Gas Co Ltd (002971) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 12.5B CNY (≈ $1.9B) · ISIN CNE100003Q99
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +29.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 745% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥12.40 – ¥75.02 · fair‑value band ¥3.63 – ¥6.05 · the ¥47.08 price screens above the ¥5.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Hubei Heyuan Gas Co Ltd (002971) currently trades at ¥47.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.57, implying the stock looks roughly 88.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hubei Heyuan Gas Co Ltd generated revenue of 1.7B CNY at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 10.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.0%. Net debt stands at 1.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.63 (bear case) to ¥6.05 (bull case); at ¥47.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 130% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -88%, 002971 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥6.46) versus Earnings-Based (¥4.83). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Hubei Heyuan Gas Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of gas products in China. The company is also involved in recovery and recycling of industrial exhaust gas. Further, it offers hydropower energy, metal silicon, hydrochloric acid, industrial exhaust gas, machinery and equipment, transport vehicles.
Full company description
Hubei Heyuan Gas Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of gas products in China. The company is also involved in recovery and recycling of industrial exhaust gas. Further, it offers hydropower energy, metal silicon, hydrochloric acid, industrial exhaust gas, machinery and equipment, transport vehicles. Its products include medical oxygen, industrial oxygen, food and industrial nitrogen, argon, helium, natural gas, carbon dioxide, acetylene, propane, and various mixed gas products. The company's products are used in chemical, iron and steel, food, home appliances and machinery, semiconductor, electronics, photovoltaics, new energy, and biomedicine industries. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Yichang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hubei Heyuan Gas Co Ltd reported revenue of ¥1.7B in FY2025 versus ¥992M in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥60.3M in FY2025, compounding −9.6%/yr from FY2021.
002971 screens 88% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation →
Peer Group
Chemicals · 347 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Basic Industries Corporation 2010 | 49.50 SAR | 18.13 SAR | -63% |
| A. Schulman, Inc SLMNP | $849.00 | $203.64 | -76% |
| Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 | ¥23.43 | ¥20.17 | -14% |
| Dow Inc DOW | $30.33 | $21.03 | -31% |
| Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 | ¥41.32 | ¥21.62 | -48% |
| Rongsheng Petrochemical Co 002493 | ¥13.76 | ¥2.39 | -83% |
| Zangge Mining Company 000408 | ¥78.04 | ¥20.99 | -73% |
| PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT | 1,855 IDR | 1,584 IDR | -15% |
| Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 | ¥54.13 | ¥16.17 | -70% |
| Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 | ¥18.87 | ¥17.09 | -9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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