BASF SE (BAS) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · DE · Market cap €42.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from €25.53 to €40.28 (+57.8%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +8.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€46.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €30.62 – €54.00 · fair‑value band €36.08 – €46.98 · the €51.32 price screens above the €40.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
BASF SE (BAS) currently trades at €51.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €40.28, implying the stock looks roughly 21.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, BASF SE generated revenue of €59.2B at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue declined 3.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.4%. Net debt stands at €21.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €36.08 (bear case) to €46.98 (bull case); at €51.32, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -22%, BAS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€31.12) versus Earnings-Based (€2.88). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BASF SE operates as a chemical company worldwide. It operates through six segments: Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions, Surface Technologies, Nutrition & Care, and Agricultural Solutions. The Chemicals segment provides petrochemicals and intermediates.
Full company description
BASF SE operates as a chemical company worldwide. It operates through six segments: Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions, Surface Technologies, Nutrition & Care, and Agricultural Solutions. The Chemicals segment provides petrochemicals and intermediates. The Materials segment offers advanced materials and their precursors for applications and systems comprising isocyanates, polyamides, and inorganic basic products, as well as specialties for the plastics and plastics processing industries. The Industrial Solutions segment develops and markets ingredients and additives for industrial applications, such as polymer dispersions, resins, additives, chemical and refining catalysts, electronic materials, and antioxidants for automotive, petrochemical and petroleum processing, plastics and electronics, construction, electronics, paper coatings, and energy and resources industries. The Surface Technologies segment provides catalysts, battery materials, automotive OEM and refinish coatings, surface treatment, and precious and base metal services for the automotive and chemical industries. The Nutrition & Care segment offers ingredients for consumer applications in the areas of nutrition, home, and personal care applications; and serves the food and feed producers, pharmaceutical, cosmetics, detergents, and cleaner industries, as well as the consumer goods sector. The Agricultural Solutions segment provides seeds and traits, and seed treatment products; fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, and biological crop protection products; and digital solutions. The company engages in engineering and other; rental and leasing; and renewable energy trading, commodity trading activities. BASF SE was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Ludwigshafen am Rhein, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BASF SE reported revenue of €59.7B in FY2025 versus €78.6B in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was €1.6B in FY2025, compounding −26.4%/yr from FY2021.
BAS screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- BASF (XTRA:BAS) Could Be 4% Undervalued As Portfolio Changes Stay In Focus
- Chromium Salt Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report, 2026-2033 Published — 85-Page Study Profiling BASF, Lanxess, and 8 Other Key
- Pentaerythritol Triacrylate (PETA) Reactive Diluent Market Global Report 2026 Published, A 250-Page Study Profiling BASF, Wanhua Chemical, E
- Basf SE (BASFY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth Amid Strategic Transactions
Peer Group
Chemicals · 334 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 | ¥20.32 | ¥20.17 | -1% |
| Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 | ¥42.85 | ¥23.35 | -46% |
| PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT | 1,690 IDR | 1,628 IDR | -4% |
| LG Chem, Ltd 051910 | 260,500 KRW | 587,755 KRW | +126% |
| Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation 1326 | 66.10 TWD | 6.79 TWD | -90% |
| PTT Global Chemical Public Company PTTGC | 35.50 THB | 18.21 THB | -49% |
| 542812 542812 | ₹4,369 | ₹791.05 | -82% |
| Indorama Ventures Public Company IVL | 24.50 THB | 17.95 THB | -27% |
| Navin Fluorine International Limited NAVINFLUOR | ₹7,647 | ₹2,200 | -71% |
| Deepak Nitrite Limited DEEPAKNTR | ₹1,662 | ₹686.18 | -59% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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