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AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AeroVironment, Inc $87.91, price $140, upside -37.4%, quality 20 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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GB · ISIN US0080731088

AI Thin data Sep 24, 2026

AeroVironment, Inc

0HAL · LSE

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $87.91 · Strongly overvalued (−37.4%)
!Quality 20/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +38.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -13.4% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$408.55 $137.34 Fair Value $87.91 Dec 2025 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

10‑month range $137.34 – $408.55 · fair‑value band $61.08 – $114.73 · the $140.37 price screens above the $87.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Autonomous Systems; and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy.

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AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Autonomous Systems; and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy. The company provides uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS), which include small and medium UAS, and kinesis command and control software; and counter-UAS and precision strike, a loitering munitions solution that deliver actionable intelligence and precision firepower modern warfighters, including precision strike, radio frequency and kinetic C-UAS, and electronic warfare systems. It also offers autonomy, AI, and platform technologies; unmanned maritime; uncrewed ground systems; and high-altitude pseudo-satellites. The company provides digital beamforming technology, a multi-band/beam software defined antenna tile that allows simultaneous communication with multiple satellites; laser communications, a data transmission systems for space operations; space-qualified hardware for line of sight stabilization and control electronics in low, medium, and geostationary earth orbit, as well as cislunar orbits; phased array antenna technology to supports hypersonic telemetry and tracking, and other missile testing; and directed energy solution. It also offers cyber solution for national security and defense operations; and HaloCortex OSINT, an AI-powered OSINT analysis platform to provide insights and solve department of defense and commercial challenges. AeroVironment, Inc. was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.

Stock analysis

AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL) currently trades at $140.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $87.91, 37.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $61.08 (bear) to $114.73 (bull), the price of $140.37 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality).

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

AeroVironment, Inc reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2026 versus $446M in FY2022, a compound +45.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$265M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $6.9B · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Net margin −13.4% · Return on equity −10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 2.8% · Revenue (TTM) $2.0B · Revenue growth (YoY) +133%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

Fair Value models

Bear $61.08 Fair Value $87.91 Bull $114.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA $96.46 $123.29 $150.11 64
NCAV (Graham) $93.25 $124.95 $186.49 51
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $96.46 $123.29 $150.11 64
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $93.25 $124.95 $186.49 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

Of which business quality 24 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11

Profitability 7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 1
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 16
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+140.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.0% (2021) → −3.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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AeroVironment, Inc · Fair Value
$87.91 −37%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AeroVironment, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0HAL

Frequently asked questions

Is AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $87.91 versus a price of $140.37, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0HAL?
Our model-based fair value for AeroVironment, Inc is $87.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $140.37.
What is the quality score of 0HAL?
AeroVironment, Inc has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $87.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $61.08, optimistic scenario $114.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AeroVironment, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $87.91, about −37% upside versus a price of $140.37 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $61.08, optimistic scenario $114.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL)?
AeroVironment, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AeroVironment, Inc it is $87.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $140.37. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AeroVironment, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HAL trades above its calculated fair value: price $140.37, fair value $87.91, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($140.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($87.91). For AeroVironment, Inc the two are $52.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AeroVironment, Inc worth?
The market values AeroVironment, Inc at about $6.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $140.37; our models calculate a fair value of $87.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HAL?
Our models span a range for AeroVironment, Inc: cautious scenario $61.08, base $87.91, optimistic $114.73 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $140.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Is AeroVironment, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $140.37, calculated fair value $87.91 (−37%), Quality Score 20/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HAL calculated?
We run AeroVironment, Inc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $87.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AeroVironment, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $140.37. Our model-based fair value is $87.91, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AeroVironment, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($114.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($61.08 to $114.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL) come from?
Earnings per share at AeroVironment, Inc grew +21.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.7 %, EBIT margin +8.1 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of AeroVironment, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL)?
The market capitalisation of AeroVironment, Inc is $6.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL)?
Earnings per share at AeroVironment, Inc are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL)?
The net margin of AeroVironment, Inc is −13.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AeroVironment, Inc is −10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AeroVironment, Inc is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL)?
The operating margin of AeroVironment, Inc is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL)?
Revenue at AeroVironment, Inc is growing +133% versus a year earlier (3y avg +54.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL) generate?
The free cash flow of AeroVironment, Inc is −$141M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AeroVironment, Inc (0HAL) carry?
The net debt of AeroVironment, Inc is $457M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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