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Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alarm.com Holdings $58.64, price $55.05, upside +6.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Alarm.com Holdings
0HC2 · LSENeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $58.64 · Fairly valued (+6.5%)
!Quality 59/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.4% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 51/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range $42.15 – $58.05 · fair‑value band $41.05 – $76.23 · the $55.05 price screens below the $58.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for connected properties in North America and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other.
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Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for connected properties in North America and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other. The company offers residential solutions, such as alarm transmission, smart signal, smart arming, and personal safety and awareness, as well as real-time alerts and always-on monitoring; video monitoring solutions, including video analytics, remote video monitoring, AI deterrence, video doorbell, intelligent integration, and cell connector; scenes, video analytics triggers, smart thermostat schedules, responsive savings, precision comfort, HVAC monitoring service, places feature, whole home water safety solution, and energy usage and solar monitoring solution. It also provides clean energy software and services SaaS platform; commercial grade video solutions, commercial video analytics, smarter access control, enterprise dashboard and multi-site management, connected fleet solution, energy savings, proactive protection for valuables and inventory, temperature monitoring, daily safeguard, and professionally supported and low cost of ownership solutions. In addition, the company offers OpenEye software comprising video surveillance as a service, cameras, recorders, and other peripherals designed for video applications; forensic video search, point-of sale system integration, customer site mapping, and large-scale camera deployments enterprise-level requirements; shooter detection systems; service provider portal, service dashboard, installation and support service provider solutions; and AI-powered enhancements to professional monitoring and false alarm reduction. Further, it provides business management services; sales, marketing, training services; and home builder program hardware and services. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tysons, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2) currently trades at $55.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $58.64, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $86.69 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the $55.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.84, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $41.05 (bear) to $76.23 (bull), the price of $55.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality).
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Alarm.com Holdings reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $749M in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $133M in FY2025, compounding +26.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.2B · P/E ratio 0.6 · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) $0.8920 · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Operating margin 12.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
Fair Value models
Bear $41.05
Fair Value $58.64
Bull $76.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6745 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$60.61
$96.35
$162.39
76
Growth DCF
$59.72
$91.49
$145.03
74
Owner Earnings
$67.51
$110.32
$186.61
72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$60.61
$96.35
$162.39
76
Owner Earnings
$67.51
$110.32
$186.61
72
5Y Revenue Exit
$50.60
$73.80
$105.82
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$56.57
$86.69
$125.52
72
5Y P/E Exit
$59.41
$92.81
$132.40
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$52.74
$76.19
$113.51
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$57.58
$85.67
$130.37
65
10Y P/E Exit
$59.45
$90.17
$136.26
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$18.78
$101.27
$140.35
63
Lynch FV
$28.03
$40.05
$52.06
61
PEG = 1.0
$28.03
$40.05
$52.06
57
EPV
$38.65
$41.59
$44.12
70
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$41.43
$55.24
$69.04
63
P/S Multiple
$35.21
$46.95
$58.69
58
P/B Multiple
$35.21
$46.95
$58.69
55
EV/EBIT
$58.25
$70.99
$83.72
63
EV/EBITDA
$57.03
$69.35
$81.68
64
EV/Revenue
$45.80
$56.84
$67.88
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$8.83
$11.84
$17.67
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$59.72
$91.49
$145.03
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$50.60
$73.19
$103.86
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$17.67
$23.26
$35.84
69
ROIC Compounder
$38.65
$41.59
$44.12
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$40.13
$57.33
$74.53
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
59/100
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Profitability
49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
61
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
62
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
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’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+21.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.1% vs 26.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 13%
2025 sits 52% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.7% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.7%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $58.64 versus a price of $55.05, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0HC2?
Our model-based fair value for Alarm.com Holdings is $58.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $55.05.
What is the quality score of 0HC2?
Alarm.com Holdings has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $58.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.05, optimistic scenario $76.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alarm.com Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $58.64, about +7% upside versus a price of $55.05 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $41.05, optimistic scenario $76.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
Alarm.com Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alarm.com Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +6.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0HC2 use?
Our models discount Alarm.com Holdings at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alarm.com Holdings that is +6.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alarm.com Holdings grew +10.4 % a year. The price currently implies +6.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.23 %: that much free cash flow Alarm.com Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alarm.com Holdings it is $58.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $55.05. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alarm.com Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HC2 trades below its calculated fair value: price $55.05, fair value $58.64, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HC2?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($55.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($58.64). For Alarm.com Holdings the two are $3.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alarm.com Holdings worth?
The market values Alarm.com Holdings at about $3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $55.05; our models calculate a fair value of $58.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HC2?
Our models span a range for Alarm.com Holdings: cautious scenario $41.05, base $58.64, optimistic $76.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $55.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Is Alarm.com Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $55.05, calculated fair value $58.64 (+7%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HC2 calculated?
We run Alarm.com Holdings through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $58.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alarm.com Holdings currently trades 6 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $55.05. Our model-based fair value is $58.64, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alarm.com Holdings right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($41.05 to $76.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2) come from?
Earnings per share at Alarm.com Holdings grew +23.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.8 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate +4.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alarm.com Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
The market capitalisation of Alarm.com Holdings is $3.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Alarm.com Holdings is 0.6 (as of Jul 24, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alarm.com Holdings is 0.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
Earnings per share at Alarm.com Holdings are $0.8920 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
The net margin of Alarm.com Holdings is 13.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alarm.com Holdings is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alarm.com Holdings is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
The operating margin of Alarm.com Holdings is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
Revenue at Alarm.com Holdings is growing +11.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2)?
Earnings per share at Alarm.com Holdings are growing −10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alarm.com Holdings (0HC2) carry?
The net debt of Alarm.com Holdings is $171M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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