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Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc $13.60, price $14.62, upside -7.0%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc
0HEM · LSENeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $13.60 · Fairly valued (−7.0%)
✓Quality 68/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −13.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.5% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓3.6% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 33/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.25 – $21.58 · fair‑value band $10.42 – $17.46 · the $14.62 price screens above the $13.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells firearms worldwide. The company offers handguns, including revolvers and pistols; long guns, such as modern sporting rifles, pistol caliber carbines, and lever-action rifles; handcuffs; suppressors; and other firearm-related products.
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Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells firearms worldwide. The company offers handguns, including revolvers and pistols; long guns, such as modern sporting rifles, pistol caliber carbines, and lever-action rifles; handcuffs; suppressors; and other firearm-related products. It also provides manufacturing services comprising forging, heat treating, rapid prototyping, tooling, finishing, plating, machining, and custom plastic injection molding, assembly, and distribution services to other businesses; and sells parts purchased through third parties. The company sells its products to firearm enthusiasts, collectors, hunters, sportsmen, competitive shooters, individuals desiring home and personal protection, law enforcement, security agencies and officers, and military agencies. It markets its products through independent dealers, retailers, in-store retails, and direct to consumers, and rangeoperations; print, broadcast, and digital advertising campaigns; social and electronic media; and in-store retail merchandising strategies. Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. was founded in 1852 and is based in Maryville, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM) currently trades at $14.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.60, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $20.99 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the $14.62 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.55, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.42 (bear) to $17.46 (bull), the price of $14.62 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality).
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc reported revenue of $524M in FY2026 versus $864M in FY2022, a compound −11.8%/yr. Reported net income was $18.5M in FY2026, compounding −44.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $657M · P/E ratio 0.0 · EPS (TTM) $5.01 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4% · Operating margin 11.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.42
Fair Value $13.60
Bull $17.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.92 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$5.27
$5.36
$5.64
76
FCF DCF
$22.89
$41.76
$74.49
75
Growth DCF
$22.51
$39.18
$66.72
73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$22.89
$41.76
$74.49
75
Owner Earnings
$7.82
$13.98
$24.67
71
5Y Revenue Exit
$11.03
$16.13
$22.57
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$14.52
$23.51
$34.63
72
5Y P/E Exit
$11.00
$16.06
$21.61
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$14.74
$21.04
$29.96
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$17.19
$26.40
$40.09
65
10Y P/E Exit
$14.88
$20.99
$29.16
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.31
$11.71
$16.18
64
Lynch FV
$3.18
$4.55
$5.91
61
PEG = 1.0
$3.18
$4.55
$5.91
57
EPV
$4.21
$4.80
$5.30
70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.75
$7.47
$11.32
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.75
$6.46
$7.89
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$5.10
$6.80
$8.49
63
P/S Multiple
$4.33
$5.78
$7.22
58
P/B Multiple
$4.33
$5.78
$7.22
55
EV/EBIT
$7.64
$10.01
$12.39
63
EV/EBITDA
$11.23
$14.80
$18.37
64
EV/Revenue
$5.32
$7.38
$9.43
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.46
$4.64
$6.92
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$22.51
$39.18
$66.72
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$11.03
$16.28
$23.27
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$5.27
$5.36
$5.64
76
ROIC Compounder
$4.21
$4.80
$5.30
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$4.70
$6.72
$8.73
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
68/100
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Profitability
41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.2% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.2%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−30.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−34.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−37.5% vs −13.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.4% a year for the price.
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Values & ESG
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None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.60 versus a price of $14.62, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0HEM?
Our model-based fair value for Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc is $13.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.62.
What is the quality score of 0HEM?
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.42, optimistic scenario $17.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.60, about −7% upside versus a price of $14.62 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $10.42, optimistic scenario $17.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $524M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc pay a dividend?
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -9.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0HEM use?
Our models discount Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.86, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc that is -9.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc grew -13.1 % a year. The price currently implies -9.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.77 %: that much free cash flow Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc it is $13.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $14.62. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HEM trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.62, fair value $13.60, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HEM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.60). For Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc the two are $1.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc worth?
The market values Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc at about $657M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $14.62; our models calculate a fair value of $13.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HEM?
Our models span a range for Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc: cautious scenario $10.42, base $13.60, optimistic $17.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $14.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0HEM from its 52-week high?
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc trades at $14.62, about 12% below its 52-week high of $16.60 and 85% above the low of $7.91 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.60 is for.
Is Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $14.62, calculated fair value $13.60 (−7%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HEM calculated?
We run Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $14.62. Our model-based fair value is $13.60, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM) come from?
Earnings per share at Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc grew −11.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.5 %, EBIT margin −12.3 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
The market capitalisation of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc is $657M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc is 0.0 (as of Jul 24, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
Earnings per share at Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc are $5.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
The dividend yield of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc is 3.6% (payout 10.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
The net margin of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc is 3.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
The operating margin of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
Revenue at Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc is growing +26.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM)?
Earnings per share at Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc are growing +86.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc (0HEM) carry?
The net debt of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc is $25.0M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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